RADIO
A pair of first-year players captured the attention of the football world last week. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud connected on 30 of 42 passes for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns, leading the Texans to a 39-37 victory. The recipient of two of Stroud's scoring tosses, fellow rookie Tank Dell, scored 29.4 PPR points and was the league's WR1 last week. The gaudy numbers bode well for the future of both young players.
This week's Thursday night game was also headlined by rookies. Carolina quarterback Bryce Young went 21 of 38 for 185 yards and no touchdowns in a 16-13 loss to Chicago. The loss continues a disappointing rookie campaign for this year's first-overall selection. On the winning side, undrafted passer Tyson Bagent completed 20 of 33 passes for 162 yards. Most importantly, Bagent avoided the turnovers that had plagued him for the previous two weeks.
Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
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NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)
Detroit's first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs has been very impressive with his opportunities this season. In his three games where teammate David Montgomery was inactive, Gibbs averaged 23.0 touches and 132.3 scrimmage yards. In Week 8 he was the RB1, picking up 189 scrimmage yards and a touchdown versus the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Gibbs has the fourth-highest breakaway run rate, fifth-highest target share, and fifth-most EPA this year, and he's the RB10 on a per-game basis.
The difference in usage is stark when Montgomery is active, though. Gibbs totaled just 22 carries in the three games he played alongside Montgomery earlier this season, and his snap share did not reach 50 percent in any of them. His PPR points per game also dip to 9.9 with Montgomery in the lineup. However, Gibbs's impressive feats in his past two outings seem to have earned him more of a workload even when both are healthy.
The Lions will face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Montgomery will be suiting up, as he has been taken off of the injury report. Fantasy managers will need to pay attention to what the balance between the two running backs becomes. This week should be a particularly great opportunity for Gibbs; the Chargers have allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards per game to RBs this year, playing directly into Gibbs's skillset.
Jordan Addison (WR, MIN)
Jordan Addison got off to a hot start for the Vikings this year. The first-round rookie from USC caught a touchdown in three of his first five games as a pro, and he exceeded 50 receiving yards in four. Addison set a new career high with 18.4 fantasy points in Week 5, catching six passes on nine targets for 64 yards and a score. That same week, star teammate Justin Jefferson sustained a hamstring injury.
Jefferson's absence facilitated a rise in Addison's production. Addison caught seven of ten targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7, finishing as the top receiver that week. In Week 8, he again made seven grabs, this time for 82 yards and one score. Addison is now tied for second among receivers with seven touchdowns. He is also ninth in fantasy points per target and eighth in EPA. Addison has certainly delivered for Minnesota and for fantasy managers so far.
This week's matchup between the Vikings and Saints will be a noteworthy one for several reasons. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs will make his first start for Minnesota this week, giving fantasy managers a more accurate look at how he and Addison will fare together for the rest of the season. Additionally, Jefferson is questionable to return this Sunday. If Jefferson does play, it will be a chance for managers to see how involved Addison can still be; if he does not, it may be the final game Addison plays this year without Jefferson's presence.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA)
Unlike Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not make a big impact immediately for his team. Smith-Njigba gained just 13 yards in Week 1 on five targets, and he failed to surpass that yardage figure in two of his next three games. Through Week 4, the Ohio State product's best game came with just 8.4 fantasy points, and he was yet to reach a 60-percent snap share. This was not the start that many fantasy managers anticipated for the highly-touted rookie.
Like with Addison, however, an injury seemed to jump-start Smith-Njigba's rookie campaign. DK Metcalf suffered a hip injury in Seattle's Week 6 bout with Cincinnati; while he did play through the pain for the remainder of the contest, Smith-Njigba was able to set a new career high with 48 receiving yards. Metcalf missed the next game when Smith-Njigba went for 63 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. The rookie scored a second touchdown in the subsequent game, and last week he matched his personal best of 63 yards.
Smith-Njigba and the Seahawks will take on the Washington Commanders on Sunday. It will be important to see if he can convert the momentum he has picked up over the past few weeks into a true breakout performance. Smith-Njigba will also look to improve upon his efficiency; right now he is just 58th in fantasy points per route run and 64th in fantasy points per target among wide receivers. The Commanders are allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs this season, so Smith-Njigba should have a chance to shine.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Will Levis (QB, TEN)
It took until Week 8 for former Kentucky quarterback Will Levis to get a shot to start, but he certainly did not squander the opportunity. Levis completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. His follow-up performance against Pittsburgh was less successful, although he did show flashes of his potential. Levis connected on 22 of 39 attempts for 262 yards, but he also threw a game-sealing interception.
Levis has played with an impressive amount of poise through two starts. Entering Week 10, his QBR of 60.9 ranked 14th, below Stroud's (72.2) but above Young's (42.4). One of the concerns with his profile during the draft process was his inconsistent accuracy, but he has a 76.5-percent catchable pass rate. Also worrisome were his turnovers in college, but his lone pick so far occurred when he needed to press for a go-ahead score. Everything seems quite encouraging for Levis, although it is still early.
This week, head coach Mike Vrabel officially named Levis the team's starting quarterback rather than a mere injury fill-in. The Titans will now face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the very same squad that Stroud torched last Sunday. Indeed, the Buccaneers are yielding 296.1 passing yards per game to opposing QBs this year, the second-highest figure in the league. Watch to see if Levis can continue his promising start to his career, or if his suspected weak areas begin to resurface.
Tommy Devito (QB, NYG)
The Giants have had some awful luck with injuries this season. One need not look any further than the quarterback position for evidence. Starter Daniel Jones sustained a neck injury against Miami in Week 5 that forced him to miss three games, and then he tore his right ACL last week. Backup Tyrod Taylor is also on injured reserve with a rib injury that he suffered in Week 8 versus the Jets. That leaves the Giants with undrafted rookie Tommy Devito as their starter.
Devito's appearance in Week 8 was one to forget, as he completed only two of his seven attempts for negative one yard. He looked somewhat improved last Sunday however, but it was still a struggle. Devito posted 15 completions on 20 attempts for 175 yards in the wake of Jones's injury. He also tossed his first career touchdown, although he threw two interceptions too. Devito is averaging a paltry 3.0 adjusted yards per attempt, and his true passer rating is just 70.5.
Devito will be making his starting debut this weekend against the strong Dallas defense. The Cowboys are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. Make sure to do your due diligence on Devito to see if he can make any strides despite the suboptimal matchup. Only the most desperate of fantasy managers will need to rely on him at all this season, but it is important not to write off prospects too early.
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB)
While Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta are the two rookie tight ends getting most of the attention, Packers rookie TE Luke Musgrave is quietly putting together a respectable rookie campaign. Musgrave, a second-rounder out of Oregon State, enters Week 10 as the TE20 on a per-game basis. He has posted four weeks as a top-15 tight end, including two as a top-10 option. Musgrave caught three of four targets last week for 51 yards and his first NFL touchdown, giving him a career-high 14.1 PPR points.
Musgrave's efficiency metrics all paint a similar story; he is 19th among tight ends in yards per route run, 18th in yards per target, 17th in fantasy points per target, and so on. Standing at 6'6" and 253 pounds with a 4.61-second 40-yard dash, it is easy to see how he can make a leap from these numbers in the future. Musgrave was also praised for his great hands and smooth route-running coming out of college. He is not to be overlooked.
The Packers and the Steelers will face off on Sunday. Pittsburgh poses a difficult matchup. Their mark of 38.6 yards allowed per game to tight ends is the sixth-lowest, and they have yielded the seventh-fewest receptions per game to the position. Watch to see if Musgrave can expand his level of impact for Green Bay, ideally with more red zone involvement; Musgrave's red zone target last week was his first since Week 3.
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