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After another wild night in the Association that saw the upstart Spurs take down the Suns behind 38 points from the #1 pick Victor Wembanyana. The Magic pulled out a nice road win in Utah, while the Pelicans and Sixers covered easily at home.
Tonight we begin the brand new "In-Season Tournament" with seven games of pool play. It doesn't seem like the teams are approaching them all that differently, considering how many players are already ruled out, but I suppose we could see some teams gear up a little more tonight if they really are interested in competing in this tourney. And maybe we see a few more "questionable" injury tags turn into guys playing, but I think most teams are looking at tonight's games as if they are any other early-season contest.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, November 3. Follow me for more NBA bets and daily insights @ThunderDanDFS!
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Golden State Warriors (-6) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (227 total)
After dropping the opener to the Suns, the Warriors are on a nice four-game run and sit at 4-1 coming into tonight's contest. Steph Curry finally cooled off on Wednesday (naturally on the night that DK had a promo for him to score 25+ at +100, sigh...) but the Dubs still held off the Fox-less Kings 102-101 for their fourth win.
I think the Warriors win again tonight, especially since the Thunder will be without their all-star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA is not the only reason why OKC has become a playoff contender, they are getting solid contributions from Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. However, he is the engine that drives this offense and when your 30-point scorer is on the bench, your offense is definitely going to take a hit, regardless of who else you have on the roster.
My angle here is on the total. I think SGA-less Thunder are going to struggle offensively against the Warriors and their 4th-best defensive rating. The Warriors have held opponents under 110 points in four out of five games already this season. And OKC has been much better defensively this year with the addition of a rim protector in Holmgren. They rank 16th in defensive rating after being in the bottom tier of defenses for most of last season. I like the under here as this game slows down without SGA and the Warriors seem perfectly content to play at
The Pick: UNDER 227 total points (-112 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) @ Indiana Pacers (224.5 total)
I usually try to avoid betting on the Cavaliers as they are my team. However, I think I have a pretty decent angle on this game and we are getting a chance to bet on a superior team at a much smaller spread than normal because of some early-season injuries that have held Cleveland back.
These teams met last weekend, with the Pacers finally pulling away late and winning by double-digits. However, that game featured a fully healthy Indiana Pacers squad and a Cavs team that was without Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen.
Mitchell will play tonight and both Garland and Allen are questionable. Garland appeared in just one game so far while Allen has yet to make his season debut. Meanwhile, the Pacers could be without Tyrese Haliburton and we saw them lose by 50 to the Celtics without their lead guard the other night.
DONOVAN MITCHELL GAME WINNER 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RJjNi2CyNy
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 26, 2023
If we get even one more Cavs starter back in the lineup, I like Cleveland a lot in this game. If for some reason Haliburton can't go, the Pacers take a big hit, too. The worst-case scenario for the Cavs would be neither Allen nor Garland return and Haliburton plays and I still think in that scenario, the Cavs can win this game by three points.
The Pacers are sporting the worst defensive rating in the NBA right now and Cleveland is coming off a tough win against the Knicks on Wednesday.
The pick: Cavs -3 (-110 DraftKings)
Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ Chicago Bulls (221 total)
One team that I have been particularly impressed with so far this season is the Brooklyn Nets. They're sitting at 2-2 and have won two straight games despite missing key rotation players in Cam Thomas, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Nicolas Claxton. Their two losses are by a combined six points, too, as they lost a one-point heartbreaker to the Cavs on opening night and a tough 5-point loss to the Mavericks on the road a few days later.
The return on Ben Simmons has been a boon to this team as it adds to their length on defense and gives their offense another playmaker who can get the ball to their shooters off the drive. Dinwiddie is questionable for this one while Claxton and Johnson remain out, however, the Nets have had some inspired play from their bench guys with Royce O'Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Lonnie Walker all stepping in and playing well.
Is Ben Simmons good again? 👀 pic.twitter.com/jymDOEvPX1
— CeeGee (@CeeGeeDFS) October 31, 2023
The Nets are 4-0 against the spread and even though they are on the road, I like them to cover here as I think they will battle with a Chicago team that has largely underwhelmed out of the gates. The Bulls are just 1-4 ATS and 0-3 as favorites this season. Chicago simply has not looked so far this year and I have little confidence that they will get it figured out.
The Pick: Brooklyn +4 (-110 DraftKings)
Favorite ML Parlay: DEN + GSW (-105 DK)
Favorite Teaser (buying 5 points): NYK +10.5, BKN +8.5, POR +8.5 (+130 DK)
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