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Thunder Dan Palyo gives his picks against the spread, over/under, and on the moneyline. These are the best NFL bets for Week 6.
Week 6 brings a plethora of betting opportunities for NFL sports bettors! Ignore those double-digit spreads, because we aren't betting on Miami, Buffalo, or San Francisco to cover those wide margins. Instead, I'll focus on some tighter spreads with my bet recommendations and a sneaky home underdog to take on the moneyline.
By the way, I am Thunder Dan Palyo -- the lead sports betting and DFS analyst and editor here at RotoBaller. I'm just filling in this week for my guy Mitch, but you can follow me @ThunderDanDFS on X if you want as I am usually posting betting or DFS content for NFL (and other sports) quite often.
Mitch will be back next week and he can recap his Week 5 picks and update his record. For now, let's jump right into the picks already!
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Week 6 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MIN -3)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 44
These teams have just two wins between them. The Vikings beat the winless Panthers and the Bears got their first win last Thursday night against the Commanders. But these teams also feel like they are heading on different trajectories. The Vikings just lost Justin Jefferson for the next four weeks and already there are rumors swirling around the organization about Kirk Cousins's future in Minnesota and whether or not a full rebuild might be in order.
The Bears are all already in rebuild mode but have flashed some improvement in the last two weeks. They should have beaten Denver two weeks ago and led them 21-0, but dropped that one, and then last week they led from start to finish against Washington and finished that one out with a dominant 40-20 win. The Bears had a few extra days of rest this week, while the Vikings are trying to figure out how their offense is going to function without their best player.
Justin Fields 🚀 DJ Moore
pic.twitter.com/Qgb48eDTrh— PFF (@PFF) October 6, 2023
This probably comes down to the Bears' defense and whether or not they can get some stops or cause some turnovers. I expect Chicago to move the ball and score points against a mediocre Minnesota defense. Can they get out in front early as they did against Washington, too? One thing I do know is that they will be up for this game at home against a divisional rival and I like betting on home underdogs on the ML when the spread is so close. If that's too rich for your blood, just take the three points, but I want some action on at least one underdog almost every week.
Pick: Bears ML (+130), Bet 1 Unit
Week 6 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DET -3)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 42
How good are the Detroit Lions? There doesn't seem to be a consensus on this topic, with many looking to point out that their win over the Chiefs is tainted by KC not having Travis Kelce or Chris Jones on opening night.
But I am of the opinion that they're pretty damn good. They come into this game with the third-ranked DVOA defense and fourth-ranked DVOA offense. They have found an identity with a hard-nosed coach and smashmouth running game powered by David Montgomery. They want to come out and punch you in the nose, and then once you adjust to the running game, Jared Goff has enough weapons between Amon-Ra St. Brown (healthy and playing this week), Sam LaPorta (the TE1 through five weeks!), and others (Jameson Williams will surely be more involved this week, too).
David Montgomery Rushing TD (6) pic.twitter.com/2UlgMZ6bT2
— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVideos2023) October 8, 2023
Pro Football Focus grades out the offensive-defensive line matchup as the BEST (for Detroit) of any team playing this weekend. And if the Lions' critics are quick to point out the lack of a "statement win" by Detroit this season, then who exactly has Tampa Bay beaten? Their wins have come against the Vikings, Saints, and Bears. They were thoroughly whooped by the Eagles on a Monday night game and I think Detroit has the personnel on both sides of the ball to dominate them in a similar fashion.
The Lions are 2-0 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS on the season with a solid +5.1 plus-minus. I have them dominating the line of scrimmage here and playing from in front, which should force Baker Mayfield into a lot of passing situations where he will face a tenacious Detroit pass rush. The Lions win by double-digits in this one, covering easily.
Pick: Lions -3 (-110), Bet 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Week 6 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U:47.5
The Dolphins are massive favorites here again this week, and while I don't really doubt that they win by two scores, that's really not something I want to bet. I have a different angle on this game.
The Dolphins are averaging a whopping 36.5 points per game this season and have gone over their game totals in three of their five games. That 70-point outburst is certainly inflating this stat, but they own the best plus-minus on O/U with a mark of +14.4. When the over hits, it's hitting by A LOT.
This is the play where Tyreek Hill hits 22 MPH, the fastest in the NFL per @NextGenStats
The play gained 67 yards after the catch
Next Gen stats had It’s expectations as 14 YAC
The 22 MPH by Tyreek results in 53 YAC above expected
— Hussam Patel (@HussamPatel) October 8, 2023
Carolina's defense is...well, they are not good. They rank 32nd against the run and 11th against the pass this season. Miami should be able to run the ball at will here and I don't really see the Panthers stopping Tyreek Hill or the passing game either. So we should expect at least 28-35 points from the Dolphins.
That means we just need 14-17 points from the Panthers. The Dolphins are actually allowing the seventh-most points to opponents in the NFL at 27 points per game. Now, are a lot of those points coming in garbage time? Yes, but those points count the same as the points scored when the game was still undecided!
We saw the Panthers get drubbed by the Lions last week and allow 42 points, but they still managed to score a few meaningless TDs late to finish with 24 points. I see something similar playing out this week, with the Dolphins winning with a final score of something like 38-17.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-112), Bet 1.12 units to win 1 unit
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