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College Football Betting Picks: Against The Spread 9/28-29/23 And Week 4 Results

Drake Maye - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, QB, NFL Draft Sleepers

It was another fun week in the last great college football season. Duck U said F You to the Colorado hype train. USC has the best team money can buy, but they don't always play like it. Ohio State performed a rare walk-off win in football (even though there was technically one second left). It was a flying trapeze show in the Washington-Cal game. NIU still can't win at home. Minnesota blew a 21-point lead against a team that didn't win a game in the Western Hemisphere last season. Man, I love this game!

We are up to seven games before the weekend this week. All of them are conference tilts this week with the two FBS newcomers taking on each other this week in Huntsville (Texas, not Alabama). There is even a matchup of ranked teams on Friday night. I love it!

I won't pick FBS vs. FCS schools. Those lines usually aren't offered up until Friday at the earliest. Judging by what most FBS teams did to their inferior foes out of conference, they won't be very lucrative for you either. Besides, I don't want to pick more 40+ point spreads than I have to. There aren't many of these left with most teams entering conference play, but we still have three or four stragglers hanging around this week.

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CFB Betting Picks for Week 5 (9/28-29/23)

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I'm not really sure why this line is down. Yeah, it's easy to look bad when you play Missouri and Alabama out of conference, but MTSU losing to Colorado State raises more questions. The Rams are much better than last year, but that is still not a game the Blue Raiders should have dropped at home. Give me the Hilltoppers.

Temple at Tulsa (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Tulsa run game is legit, but their QB room is a mess behind the M*A*S*H* unit. I like Temple outright, but not enough to bet on this.

Jacksonville State (-6.5) at Sam Houston

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I'm more inclined to bet the under 37 than the spread. The Bearkats finally got exposed by the Houston athletes last week. The Gamecocks don't have a stable of athletes, but Nebraska transfer Logan Smothers is looking good in this offense. Give me the Gamecocks.

Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't buy this at all. Wolfpack outright!

(10) Utah at (19) Oregon State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I would say that the chances of Cameron Rising missing this game are practically zero. It's tough to win in Corvallis, but the Utes have held serve with Rising out. They should improve the offensive efficiency, thus improving the defense even more. I like Utah outright. If Rising misses this game for some reason, I'm lowering and switching to the Beavers.

Louisiana Tech at UTEP (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

There is still no news on Hank Bachmeier's shoulder injury, but Jack Turner has played solid in his absence. Solid enough to beat UTEP. I'll take the Bulldogs outright.

Cincinnati (-1.5) at BYU 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, this is a tough one. Cincinnati isn't used to playing at a higher altitude. The last time they played a game over 1,500 feet was in 2019 at Marshall. The last time they played anywhere this high was in Provo back in 2015. I trust Emory Jones a little more than Kedon Slovis, but those BYU receivers are pretty good. I'll go with BYU at home, but I expect a really good game.

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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results

I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Darren Grainger's homecoming ruined CCU's. The Chanticleer defense continues to be a sore spot this year.

Wisconsin (-5.5) at Purdue: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Wisconsin offense is going to look a little different without Chez Mellusi. The Badgers won the game, but losing Mellusi is going to hurt their quest to win the worst Power Five division.

North Carolina State (-9.5) at Virginia: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Anthony Colandrea will have his growing pains from time to time, but it looks like he is going to be the right fit for this offense. When you see the guy without a helmet on, he looks like he's 12, but don't let that fool you. The arm is for real. The Pack know that now.

Unfortunately, Virginia coach Tony Elliot has said they will go back to Tony Muskett when he's healthy. Enjoy the ACC cellar, Virginia. Colandrea at least gives you a chance...when he's not taking his helmet off to get an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. I get that it's against the rules, but looking back on that play, it looked like his helmet was coming off and it was uncomfortable, so he took it off. They should have let that go, especially when it essentially decided the game.

Boise State (-6.5) at San Diego State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Boise defense let the Aztecs march down the field in about 90 seconds to blow this cover with 40 seconds left.

Air Force (-4.5) at San Jose State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Falcons ran for 400 yards in this game. Both Emmanuel Michel and John Lee Eldridge III topped 100 yards. Oh, and they completed BOTH pass attempts. Try that, Navy!

Rutgers at (2) Michigan (-24.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Looks like that 24 was dead on. The Rutgers defense played well enough, but the offense was a disaster.

(4) Florida State (-1.5) at Clemson: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Clemson did everything that they possibly could to lose this game...and succeeded. FSU survives again. One of these weeks, they won't.

(16) Oklahoma (-13.5) at Cincinnati: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I went and dug out my Blackberry and logged into MySpace. Every time I watch Oklahoma this year, I'm transported back 20 years to when the defense was the strength of the team. It seems to be that way again. Cincinnati's red zone efficiency was terrible, but that had more than a little to do with the Oklahoma defense. They held the Bearcats without a touchdown for the first time since the CFP game against Alabama in 2021.

Army at Syracuse (-13.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That stupid half. Syracuse needed a dominant second half to win this.

Auburn at Texas A&M (-8.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Me calling Auburn's quarterbacks average is an insult to average quarterbacks everywhere. I'm sorry, you guys. You can't even create a fictional universe where Payton Thorne is as awful as he has been on the plains of Alabama. A&M destroyed them with a backup quarterback for the last three quarters.

Western Kentucky at Troy (-3.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Lost by a half again and we're only 10 games in!

Kentucky (-13.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This wasn't a great game for Devin Leary leading into Florida and the Kentucky D allowing 28 to Vanderbilt is concerning.

Virginia Tech at Marshall (-5.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Two words: Rasheen Ali.

I've been singing his praises to anyone who will listen since about a month into his freshman season. One day everyone will catch up. This was Marshall's first win over the Hokies since 1940.

SMU at TCU (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm not sure there's anything wrong with the Ponies. I just think Tanner Mordecai was special on this team. Preston Stone, while good, is not special.

Tulsa at Northern Illinois (-3.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Despite a 20-play drive, the Huskies still dropped their seventh consecutive home game. How is that even possible?

Western Michigan at Toledo (-20.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

If Dequan Finn hadn't left this game in the third quarter, I think the Rockets would have covered. They still won by 18.

Georgia Southern (-6.5) at Ball State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Yikes! It takes skill to be that wrong. Good thing I left this one alone.

(19) Colorado at (10) Oregon (-21.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Speak softly, and carry a Heisman-caliber quarterback. That's all it takes to derail a hype train.

(22) UCLA at (11) Utah (-5.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I almost backed off of this when the line took a dive on Saturday morning. Cameron Rising was warming up again and they said he would dress. He did...kind of. There were no pads on and a brace on his knee. Rising will likely have to play with that brace on his knee for a while which could limit his mobility. Here's hoping he returns this week. That defense is elite, but Nate Johnson can't lead this team to the playoff. With Rising, they might have a chance.

(15) Mississippi at (13) Alabama (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I pretty much nailed the analysis here. Alabama's defense, particularly the secondary, is excellent. Jalen Milroe is good enough to lead this team a long way. The proof for me was on this play. This was a great catch by Jalen Hale, but it was a perfect throw by Milroe when he knew he was going to get drilled.

(18) Duke (-22.5) at Connecticut: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

One of these days, UConn will get better. All they need is a quarterback...and an offensive line...

(20) Miami (FL) (-23.5) at Temple: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Temple ran for just 11 yards and Miami ran for 323. Sometimes football really is that simple. Another methodically strong performance from Tyler Van Dyke didn't hurt either.

Florida Atlantic at Illinois (-15.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I should have known better. I like Luke Altmyer, but this Illinois defense has some issues and the receivers aren't as good as they look on paper.

Maryland (-7.5) at Michigan State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Easy money. Michigan State has dug themselves a hole that they won't soon get out of.

Louisiana Tech at Nebraska (-20.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I didn't bet the spread, but I did bet the under. That one hit (barely), but the spread was busted when the Bulldogs scored after the lightning delay. This Nebraska offense is stagnant and can't get out of its own way. Heinrich Haarburg is an excellent option quarterback with a decent arm, but Thomas Fidone was open several times and Haarburg didn't see him. There is a happy medium here that Nebraska will find at some point.

Boston College at Louisville (-14.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Jack Plummer had his finest college game. The Boston College defense was obliterated here. This is what Florida State should have done to the Eagles.

BYU at Kansas (-9.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

It's a tale as old as time. Kedon Slovis makes a mistake at a critical point in the game. He was living dangerously before this, but Logan finally burned him here. The Booth was rocking for this one, and it was great to see. I'm going to weather the abuse and go down there for the Oklahoma game (the fans hate everything Oklahoma since the Baker Mayfield incident in 2017) because it's a great atmosphere...even if I am rooting for the wrong team (in their eyes).

Texas Tech (-5.5) at West Virginia: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Tyler Shough got hurt again. Behren Morton was solid in relief, but this West Virginia defense is a different animal this year. No team has done less with more than Texas Tech. This was a dark horse to win the Big 12 (14) prior to the season. Now they'll be lucky to make a bowl, especially if Shough is out for an extended period of time again.

New Mexico at Massachusetts (-3.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

...and of course, New Mexico wins in overtime. I will admit that this game was more enjoyable than it should have been.

Ohio (-12.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Terion Stewart was the lone bright spot for Bowling Green. Ohio took it easy on them in the second half. This could have been worse...

UTSA at (23) Tennessee (-21.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Both Frank Harris and De'Corian Clark were out again for the Roadrunners. Eddie Lee Marburger was ineffective. Owen McCown was decent. The defense for the Roadrunners was not. This is a shadow of last year's team thanks to injuries.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State (-3.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Alan Bowman is coming into his own for the Cowboys. The same can be said for Rocco Becht. Jaylin Noel finally had the game that we knew he could have. Both teams played much better than they have this year so far. Iowa State may finally gain some momentum if Becht can keep this up. He made good decisions in this game and made some really nice throws.

We saw Matt Campbell and Nate Scheelhaase open things up for Becht in this game and it immediately paid dividends. They should have done so against Ohio last week.

Rice (-2.5) at South Florida: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The first mistake Rice made is thinking that Byrum Brown is mostly a runner. He does lead the Bulls in rushing, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Brown has an excellent arm as well. He is what Florida fans wish Anthony Richardson was in Gainesville.

Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville State (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This was a dominant defensive performance by Jacksonville State. Now I'm REALLY looking forward to this week's game against Sam Houston.

Central Michigan at South Alabama (-16.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is what happens when you get a fun and interesting Fun Belt team with a giant spread. They lose outright. Jase Bauer made everyone in Mobile miserable in this one.

Liberty (-9.5) at Florida International: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

FIU got gashed on the ground and Keyone Jenkins was pulled to try and jump-start the offense. I expect Jenkins to be a good quarterback at some point, but there will be bumps in the road when he plays defenses like this.

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (-3.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It's amazing what happens when you remove the human turnover from the equation. Haynes King isn't perfect, but he consistently gives Georgia Tech a chance. That's more than they had last year.

Arkansas at (12) LSU (-17.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is always a weird game no matter how bad the Hogs look. It was another big game for Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers, but the LSU defense looked suspect again.

(14) Oregon State (-3.5) at (21) Washington State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

In a conference full of amazing quarterbacks, Cameron Ward often gets lost in the shuffle. He shouldn't. He is just as much fun to watch as Michael Penix, Caleb Williams, and DJ Uiagalelei. And those receivers...wow

This is nothing new. If you watched Mountain West football last year, you knew how special Josh Kelly was. You could also see the ability of Kyle Williams at UNLV even though Doug Brumfield is roughly as accurate as a 12-gauge shotgun full of bird shot.

Charlotte at (25) Florida (-27.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

What an ugly offensive day for Florida. If it weren't for Ricky Pearsall, this offense would be toast.

Sam Houston at Houston (-11.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I like this defense, but the Bearkats' offense is literally painful to watch. It's a shame that defense is wasted by this offense. Maybe North Texas transfer Grant Gunnell can help.

Colorado State at Middle Tennessee State (-2.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

MTSU has some good receivers, but Colorado State's Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi could be special.

Arizona (-12.5) at Stanford: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This was by far the best performance of the Stanford defense this season.

Appalachian State at Wyoming (-2.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

There was a reason that I left this alone. It was a very entertaining game. I'm really glad to see Harrison Waylee back on the field with a team that knows how to use him.

Southern Mississippi (-5.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

It was a solid game for Frank Gore Jr. Unfortunately, he doesn't play defense.

Nevada at Texas State (-17.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This was a great comeback by the Bobcats. Nevada was up 17-0 at the half. Their inability to stop Ismail Mahdi sunk the Pack, but Nevada is at least showing they can hang around.

UAB at (1) Georgia (-41.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I didn't see UAB scoring 21 points, but the premise was right. A methodical beating by Georgia gets nowhere near the cover.

(3) Texas (-14.5) at Baylor: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I just don't see it with Sawyer Robertson. I know the Texas defense is better than good, but you're not going to get very far if you can't consistently complete deep passes.

(6) Ohio State (-3.5) at (9) Notre Dame: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

It's not every day that a game lives up to the hype. And you can't even make up the ending to this game. Five seconds on the clock and Ohio State goes in for the touchdown while the Irish have 10 men on the field. Yikes.

(24) Iowa at (7) Penn State (-14.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I knew better. This is the Iowa offense that we know and love (or loathe). They had as many first downs as fumbles lost. Think about that stat for a minute. Penn State might finally have "it" this year and it's name is Drew Allar.

Akron at Indiana (-16.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

DJ Irons is an absolute warrior and Akron's kicker needs a hug. So does the MAC. This is the first time they haven't ripped out the soul of a Big Ten(14) team in 18 years. Akron had a 30-yard field goal to win this in regulation and missed.

Memphis vs. Missouri (-6.5) at St. Louis: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

A 7-point win isn't big, but it did cover. Luther Burden III showed out in his return to St. Louis...and he missed about a quarter of this game. So did Brady Cook. The Missouri defense, on the other hand...

Minnesota (-11.5) at Northwestern: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

How bad do you have to be to blow a 21-point lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and lose to a team that didn't win a game in the Western Hemisphere last year? Minnesota bad. They're on the list.

I love watching Darius Taylor run, but the limitations of Athan Kaliakmanis (at this point it doesn't matter if it's from him or the coaches) and the awful pass defense could land the Gophers in last in the worst Power Five division.

Mississippi State at South Carolina (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This was a monster game for Will Rogers and Lideatrick Griffin...and it still wasn't enough.

Buffalo at Louisiana (-9.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Louisana jumped up 17-0 early in the third. The Cajuns allowed two touchdowns in the last 4.5 minutes of the game to destroy my cover and a 7-leg parlay. There is a word for this, but I'm not permitted to type it as this is a family program...

(17) North Carolina (-7.5) at Pittsburgh: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Do you think Pitt wants Kedon Slovis back yet? Yeah, I won't go that far either. Phil Jurkovec had his best game in weeks, but it wasn't close to enough.

Central Florida at Kansas State (-4.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Don't blame this on Timmy McClain. He played a good game. It was UCF's inability to stop DJ Giddens. Treshaun who?

James Madison (-4.5) at Utah State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Utah State finally found a suitable replacement for Cooper Legas in McCae Hillstead. This was the sloppiest game that I've seen James Madison play since they moved to FBS and they still won. They were up 24-0 at one point though, so the rash of turnovers is kind of concerning. This shouldn't have been a game.

UNLV (-2.5) at UTEP: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Jaiden Thomas scored touchdowns on four of his 13 carries. That's efficiency.

(5) USC (-34.5) at Arizona State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

At one point in this game, Cameron Skattebo had more passing yards than Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne. Pyne finally settled down and USC did USC things again.

Not all good teams are great. Not all great teams are good. USC falls into the latter category. Their offense is great. They can score at will from anywhere on the field...but they're not good. This team, especially the defense, is undisciplined and downright sloppy at times. A team that is supposed to be elite can't have that.

California at (8) Washington (-20.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

USC wishes they were Washington. Cal scored 13 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter when this game was well in hand. It was 45-12 at the break.

Kent State at Fresno State (-27.5): HIT! 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Mikey Keene led Fresno to touchdowns on its first seven drives. I don't know what I was so worried about...

New Mexico State at Hawaii (-2.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I'm glad that I didn't bet the over on this. Hawaii proving they can win close games is a welcome addition to Timmy Chang's arsenal.

 

College Football Betting Season Results

This is how I'm supposed to perform in a week. I hit all three of my max bets and went 35-28 overall. That gets me back above 50% on the season at 109-107. That's 50.5%, so I'm getting closer to my goal of 53% on the season. With my success on the max bets, I should be back in the black for the season.

The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.

1. 2-6 (10-19) = -9
2. 11-10 (43-41) = 4
3. 14-8 (35-31) = 12
4. 5-4 (11-12) = -4
5. 3-0 (10-4) = 30

I had the best week of the season so far, winning 35 points. I now have 33 points on the season and am chipping away at the deficit. I am now down 78 points in six-plus years of the points system. I'm on the way to paying back a disastrous 2021 season. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!



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Trending In The Right Direction For PGA Championship
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Remains Away From The Team
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

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Denny Hamlin4 days ago

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Kyle Larson4 days ago

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Chris Buescher4 days ago

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Alex Caceres4 days ago

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Michael McDowell4 days ago

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Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Delivers Value In DFS At Darlington Raceway
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Noah Gragson5 days ago

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Josh Berry5 days ago

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Ty Gibbs5 days ago

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Suffers First Career Loss At UFC St. Louis
Waldo Cortes-Acosta5 days ago

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Mateusz Rebecki Gets TKO'd At UFC St. Louis
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RP

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