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Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/26/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's yet another day of betting on baseball games and we have a bunch of ballgames spread out over the course of the day here on this wacky Wednesday. I'm going to go with a theme today of "road underdogs" as I have two teams that I am going to back on the road to get wins today at good odds. Picking favorites to win all the time is for losers!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Dodgers
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: LAD (-140)
TOR: Yusei Kikuchi | LAD: Tony Gonsolin
Last night's game between these two teams got wild in the late innings. The Blue Jays took a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the eighth inning but J.D. Martinez hit a solo homer to close the gap to 4-3. If you're a Toronto fan, you had to feel pretty good after Danny Jansen cleared the bases with a double in the top of the ninth to give them a 7-3 lead going into the bottom of the ninth. But the Dodgers managed to score three and tie at seven to go to extra frames! LA then won in the bottom of the 10th inning as James Outman drove in Chris Taylor.
Toronto has to be disappointed that they let that one slip away, but the Dodgers do that sometimes and it won't be the last time they pull off some wild comeback. Let's look at today's game though and that 10-run total tells us that Vegas doesn't have much faith in these starting pitchers going up against good offenses.
So who has the pitching advantage if there is one? I think Toronto does. Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.92 ERA this season and Tony Gonsolin sits at 3.94, but the difference is that Kikuchi's SIERA is 4.00 while Gonsolin's is 4.89. I like using SIERA when trying to ascertain which starting pitchers are actually as good (or bad) as their ERA suggests. I'm a firm believer that Gonsolin is pretty overrated. This spring, I wrote about how he had one of the flukiest low ERAs last season along with another guy who we have seen struggle this season -- Alek Manoah.
Now, Gonsolin hasn't been Manoah-level bad by any means, but he is a reverse splits pitcher who is going to face 6-7 righties in this Toronto lineup tonight. And while Kikuchi isn't someone I would usually trust, he's been respectable this year and has avoided the blow-up starts for the most part. The Dodgers are a little less dangerous against LHP, too, ranking closer to the middle of the pack offensively against southpaws while they are near the top of the league against RHP.
I think there should be plenty of offense here, but more from the Jays than the Dodgers. At +120, I am willing to take a shot on the good Kikuchi showing up and the Toronto bats doing some damage against Tony G.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+120) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI (-115)
BAL: Kyle Bradish | PHI: Ranger Suarez
The Baltimore Orioles are 13-4 since the Fourth of July and they've clawed their way to the top of a very competitive AL East (all five teams have winning records). The Orioles finished last season strong, but are proving it was no fluke this season as they seemed poised to make a postseason appearance.
They have done it on the strength of their offense, an incredibly good bullpen, and some surprising starting pitching. We knew that Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish had talent. At the beginning of the season, we definitely didn't know if they would put it all together and pitch as well as they have so far this season.
Bradish has been particularly good of late, allowing two runs or less now in seven straight starts. He has looked like the real deal. While Ranger Suarez is a respectable starter in this league, I definitely give the Orioles the advantage in starting pitching here. I view these offenses pretty equally as both teams are averaging just under five runs per game over the last month.
However, the bullpen advantage definitely goes to Baltimore there. The Orioles can be tough on lefties, too, so Suarez will have his work cut out for him today. I see no reason why Baltimore shouldn't be favored in this one, so I will snag up the value on their moneyline as I think they are simply the better of the two teams right now.
Pick: Orioles ML (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Let's hit some bets and make some money tonight! Thanks for reading and following along all season!
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