RADIO
2023 could be a make-or-break season for the Miami Dolphins.
Tua Tagovailoa is entering a decisive year both health-wise and in terms of performance. Head coach Mike McDaniel needs to take this finally-healthy squad and produce enough wins to make the playoffs in his second season at the helm. The defense must step up big in a challenging division after key offseason additions, including Jalen Ramsey (knee).
Amidst all of the debates and headlines, let's check out the squad's fantasy football expectations. Which players are breakouts, busts, or locks?
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
As with every claim and prediction, this pick comes with an injury disclosure. Given the pattern of Tua Tagovailoa's head injuries from last year, there is a strong likelihood that he is more susceptible to reinjury than the average player. If Tagovailoa can't stay on the field, he won't break out.
However, if Tagovailoa can be relatively healthy this season, he will reward fantasy managers in a huge way. With an elite wide receiver corps of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, Tagovailoa can show off his strong arm and impressive deep ball placement. Despite missing four whole games (and parts of several more) last season, the former Alabama signal-caller delivered 40 money throws, good for second in the NFL.
Tagovailoa was also a beacon of efficiency in 2022, totaling 8.9 yards per attempt, 9.3 air yards per attempt, and 0.57 fantasy points per dropback. He completed a phenomenal 50 percent of deep balls and 65.3 percent of red zone passes while finishing the year with a 68.5 QBR, +149.4 EPA, and +13.9 production premium. These metrics suggest that Tagovailoa was borderline elite last season and should be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in 2023, provided that he says healthy.
Fantasy Football Bust: Raheem Mostert (RB)
The Dolphins' backfield is discombobulated right now. Although Raheem Mostert currently projects to be the Week 1 starter, De'Von Achane is squarely in the mix to take over once he gets some more reps under his belt at the pro level. Jeff Wilson Jr. remains a strong presence, offering versatility and a change of pace.
At 31 years old, Mostert is likely closing in on the end of his career. He no longer has the youth and game-changing speed that made him such an attractive fantasy weapon in recent years. To make matters worse, Achane does have that speed and possesses a similar makeup to Mostert. This could be the final nail in the coffin that is Mostert's dwindling job security.
Long story short, Mostert is starting to feel like the odd man out in this backfield. Metrics-wise, he showed signs of decreased production last year when he finished with just 2.45 yards created per touch and a horrendous -9.3 EPA. The Purdue product currently sports an ADP of 159, five picks before Wilson and 35 picks after Achane. He was a helpful dart throw at FLEX last season, but I'm staying away from Mostert this year.
Fantasy Football Lock: Tyreek Hill (WR)
Do I even need to explain this one?
Tyreek Hill is entering his age-29 season and only seems to be getting better. He set a career-high in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points despite spending more than one-quarter of the season catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson. As expected, Hill showed that he can co-exist with Jaylen Waddle, leading the NFL with 3.38 yards and 0.69 fantasy points per route run.
Provided that he stays healthy (Hill hasn't missed a game since 2020), the speedy star is on track to turn in another elite fantasy season. He is a lock for high-end production and an incredibly safe option if you'd like to draft a wide receiver in the first round.
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