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Jackson Sparks' fantasy football rookie analysis for running back Chase Brown. Is this NFL rookie RB a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper or will he be buried on Cincinnati's depth chart?
Former Illinois running back Chase Brown wasn't a highly touted recruit, ranking as the 59th-best running back in the Class of 2018 (247 Sports). He started his career at Western Michigan before transferring to Illinois to play with his twin brother, where he eventually became a star after a few years of waiting his turn.
Brown is a bit "old" for a running back prospect since he spent five years in college, but he got a juicy landing spot and is now a fascinating rookie to evaluate.
What did Brown accomplish during his collegiate career and what is his fantasy football outlook with the Cincinnati Bengals as a rookie and beyond? Let's dive into his rookie profile!
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Chase Brown NFL Rookie Profile
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
College: Illinois
Height: 5'9 1/2"
Weight 209
Age: 23 (3/21/2000)
Arm Length: 31"
Hand Size: 10"
2022 NFL Draft: Round 5, Pick: 28
40-Time: 4.43
Freshman Season at Western Michigan
Brown was used sparingly in the Broncos' run-first offense, ranking third on the team in rushing attempts and yards. He handled 71 carries for 352 yards (5.0 YPC) and caught 10 passes for 75 yards – scoring no touchdowns.
It's not as if he played poorly at WMU. He just wasn't given much of an opportunity early on. After his true freshman season, he decided to back his bags and head to Illinois.
2019 Redshirt/2020 Upside Flash
Brown was initially denied on his immediate eligibility waiver, so he wasn't able to suit up for the early part of his sophomore season in Champaign. He was ruled eligible in the middle of the season (October), but it was too late for him to carve out a role. He rushed just three times for 18 yards and was given a redshirt.
In the 2020 Covid-shortened season, Brown finally became a key member of an offense, rushing 104 times for 540 yards (5.2) and three touchdowns. He added seven receptions for 64 yards. It still wasn't a monster campaign, but he flashed with a 17-carry, 131-yard (7.7 YPC) performance against Rutgers and a 26-carry, 110-yard game the next week against Nebraska.
His short spurts of excellence would foreshadow his big 2021 season to come.
2021 Breakout Campaign
Brown would finally lead his team in rushing attempts during the 2021 season – and he delivered.
| Opponent | Attempts | Rush Yds | Rush Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds |
| Nebraska | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 | 4 | 28 |
| Maryland | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 | 2 | 54 |
| Charlotte | 26 | 257 | 9.9 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Penn State | 33 | 223 | 6.8 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Rutgers | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 32 | 147 | 4.6 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Iowa | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
| Northwestern | 14 | 112 | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 170 | 1,005 | 5.9 | 5 | 14 | 142 |
He posted two games of over 220 rushing yards, averaging 6.8 and 9.9 yards per carry in those contests. He also set a career-high in receptions with 14. 14 isn't a staggering total, but his 10.1 yards per reception mean he made the most of his opportunities. For whatever reason, he wasn't given a consistently high workload, but he was excellent when he did get a ton of volume.
There was a little bit of buzz that Brown could test the NFL waters after his efficient and explosive season, but he ultimately decided to return to Illinois and was viewed as one of the nation's top running backs heading into 2022.
Final Collegiate Season
It took four years, but Brown finally entered a season as the clear-cut No. 1 running back, and he'd handle a monster workload in 2022. He ranked second nationally with 328 rushing attempts and fourth nationally with 1,643 rushing yards.
| Opponent | Attempts | Rush Yds | Rush Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD |
| Wyoming | 19 | 151 | 7.9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Indiana | 36 | 199 | 5.5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Virginia | 20 | 146 | 7.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chattanooga | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 25 | 129 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Iowa | 31 | 146 | 4.7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 41 | 180 | 4.4 | 0 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Nebraska | 32 | 149 | 4.7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 33 | 136 | 4.1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Purdue | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Michigan | 29 | 140 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Northwestern | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Total | 328 | 1,643 | 5.0 | 10 | 27 | 240 | 3 |
Brown's game log almost doesn't look real. He posted at least 100 yards rushing in 10 of his 12 games and never rushed for fewer than 61 yards. He also added 13 receptions and three receiving scores from his 2021 total. His efficiency took a sharp decline near the end of the season – which makes sense considering his mind-boggling workload.
Brown could have come back for one final season since he redshirted in 2019 and all players were given a redshirt in 2020, but he accomplished everything he could have and declared for the 2023 NFL Draft.
Chase Brown Draft Stock Movement
According to MockDraftData.com, Brown's value peaked as an early fourth-round selection, but in early February, he was projected to go as late as the seventh round. After the 2023 NFL Combine, his stock would rise. Brown led all running backs in the vertical jump (40"), broad jump (10' 7"), and bench press (25) and posted a 4.43 40-yard dash.
He proved to be an elite athlete at the position, but his age and late breakout likely turned some teams off from drafting him earlier. Ultimately, he landed with the Cincinnati Bengals in round five, which is about as good of a landing spot as you could hope for on day three.
Chase Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
Bengals running back Joe Mixon was rumored to be a cut-or-trade candidate all offseason given his regression in efficiency and off-field issues, but it seems he'll be on the team again in 2023 as the primary running back. However, Brown has the chance to beat out Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans to be his immediate backup.
We saw Samaje Perine have stellar fantasy weeks in Mixon's absence last season inside one of the league's premier offenses, so this is an exciting development for Brown. The injury rate for running backs is always high and if Mixon even misses two or three games, Brown could have a big-time fantasy role and become a must-start option in all formats.
The receiving and touchdown upside is juicy in a Joe Burrow-led offense and assuming Brown makes the roster and cements himself as the team's RB2, he's arguably the top-five handcuff in fantasy football right away. Of course, we can't know for sure whether Brown will be a good player in the NFL since he hasn't played a snap, but Williams and Evans haven't produced anything since entering the league and Brown has a stronger overall prospect profile than either of the two. What we do know is the Bengals' top running back will have value no matter what.
He is going in the late-second or early-third round in rookie drafts, which could be good value. Ultimately, it's important to remember he's a day-three pick and won't have built-in job security or start with a leg up, but the upside is promising if he can establish himself as a reliable player.
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