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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/25/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
Thursday baseball is normally a shortened schedule and that is indeed the case on this May 25, 2023 slate as we have nine games to comb through. That said, there is never a shortage of value on the board!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can get on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CWS (-136)
CWS: Lucas Giolito| DET: Alex Faedo
The MLB schedule makers weren't exactly kind to the Tigers on this one as they open up a four-game set with the White Sox Thursday in Detroit.
While the White Sox grabbed a 6-0 victory in an early start on Wednesday, the Tigers had to wait until an evening start time -- one that was delayed about half an hour by rain -- to earn their 6-4 win in Kansas City last night. The White Sox have the rest advantage, as a result, and also the starting pitching advantage in this one tonight.
Taking the ball for the road side is Lucas Giolito who is having a solid season after a down 2022 campaign. The 28-year-old posted a 4.90 ERA last season but has turned in a 3.62 mark so far this season in 10 starts while his 3.81 FIP and 3.84 SIERA support his solid work. He's walked just 4.9% of the batters he has faced while maintaining a solid 24.4% K%.
On the other side is right-hander Alex Faedo who has made just three starts this season and owns a 4.60 ERA in that time. He's done a nice job in walking just one batter in 15 2/3 innings but has allowed five home runs in that time. Faedo is the owner of a career 5.32 ERA and 4.82 SIERA in his 69 1/3 frames in the big leagues.
While the Tigers have done well to hover around the .500 mark, the White Sox are 7-3 over their last 10 as they appear to be hitting their stride. While the White Sox have seen their bullpen struggle this season, the Tigers had to tax their bullpen over their three-game set in Kansas City to begin the week and needed their top two relievers to cover three innings just last night.
Add it up and the White Sox should be able to open their four-game set in Detroit with a win Thursday night.
Pick: White Sox moneyline (-136, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI (-112)
PHI: Aaron Nola| ATL: Dylan Dodd
They say momentum in baseball is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. This is where Phillies ace (co-ace?) Aaron Nola needs to step up and beat a divisional opponent in a crucial series against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.
Now, Nola hasn't been very good this season. He owns a 4.31 ERA and 4.16 SIERA in 10 starts while punching out just 21.3% of the hitters he has faced. His sterling 5.2% walk rate holds up but his ground-ball rate has slipped to just 38.1% and he ranks in the bottom-half of the league in terms of barrel rate.
However, for a pitcher sporting a career 27.2% K% and 20.8% K-BB%, Nola should be able to trend in a better direction moving forward.
On the other side is left-hander Dylan Dodd who was promoted from Triple-A for tonight's start. Dodd not only owns a 6.46 ERA in three MLB starts this season but also a 6.67 mark in six Triple-A outings. His 6.09 FIP at Triple-A is also no good while he owns a 5.59 FIP and 5.74 SIERA at the MLB level across 15 1/3 innings of work.
Wins don't get much better than the one the Phillies earned versus the D-backs Wednesday afternoon. They trailed 5-0 at one point and 5-3 in the ninth before tying the contest with a two-out, two-run homer from Trea Turner before walking it off in the 10th. Again, momentum is a tricky thing in baseball but that is a win the Phillies needed, especially heading toward a series with a division rival.
I'll put my trust in not only Nola to step up in a big game but also the Phillies' offense to touch up a pitcher that has struggled everywhere he has pitched this season.
Pick: Phillies moneyline (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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