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Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there and thanks for tolerating your husbands, sons, and other loved ones who are obsessed with this game of baseball. Take some time today to let your mom know how much she means to you or honor her in some way. I wanted to take my mom to a ballgame today but she hasn't been feeling well so we are going to watch her battling Bucs try to salvage a game in Baltimore on the TV instead.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, May 14, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Mitch Keller OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
I'm not sure how you feel about Mitch Keller, but I am still wildly optimistic that his hot start to the year means he's a legit ace-in-the-making for my Pirates team that badly needs one. He's coming off his first-ever CGSO against the Rockies and in about as good of form as he's ever been in his career.
Mitch Keller, Disgusting 84mph Sweeper. 🤮
16 Inches of horizontal break.6th K pic.twitter.com/neIWsWHEyV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2023
He will have his work cut out for him today against Baltimore, that's for sure. The Orioles are legit and have won the first two games of this series behind some strong pitching of their own. Keller's 27% strikeout rate thus far has been impressive and his ability to pitch deeper into games has allowed him to rack up more strikeouts as a result.
The Orioles have a neutral strikeout rate against righties, but Keller has now whiffed six or more hitters in six of eight starts this season, including 26 batters over his last 20 innings. I think he can get six today and now that the odds have moved to plus money, I like the value that the over presents.
Louie Varland OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-170 DraftKings)
I was a bit torn here between Varland and Hunter Brown, who is -150 to get five strikeouts against the White Sox today (I still may bet that one). But Varland is in better form, having struck out six or more hitters in all three of his MLB starts this year. The Cubs are not usually a really K-prone team against RHP, but Varland's teammates Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan both racked up big K totals in the first two games of this series.
This prop is juiced up a ton, but Varland's 28% strikeout rate is legit as he's backed it up with a 14% SwStr%. He should be able to get five Cubbies today, so lock this one up or toss it into some parlays.
Logan Gilbert OVER 17.5 outs recorded (-125 DraftKings)
Gilbert's K prop is set at 6.5 today and he's plus money to go over it. My projections back the over there, but I am a bit leery after Bryce Miller only struck out three Tigers despite pitching seven strong innings yesterday. So while I might still bet on Gilbert's strikeouts, I think the safer play is betting on his effectiveness.
Seven CONSECUTIVE Ks for Logan Gilbert. pic.twitter.com/LZXwCxyic0
— MLB (@MLB) May 9, 2023
Gilbert needs 18 outs, which means he has to finish the sixth inning for us to hit this prop. He's done that in five of seven starts this season and he's coming off his best start of the year last time out when he struck out 10 Rangers in 6.2 innings. Gilbert has a WHIP of just 0.99 this season, showing that he's simply not allowing many baserunners and his 5% walk rate tells me that he won't give out any freebies. I think he can work efficiently enough today against a below-average offense to get through 6 or even 7 innings in this one.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 total bases (-120 DraftKings)
After a disappointing first season in Philly last year, Casty is off to a great start in 2023 as his 3-4 outing at the plate last night raised his average to .325 on the season with five home runs and 25 RBI. The Phillies get lefty Kyle Freeland on the mound opposing them today and while Freeland has been effective at times this year, he's still a guy who can get hit hard, especially by righties.
Casty has gap-to-gap power that is ideal for hitting in any park, let alone Coors Field. He's only striking out 21% of the time against LHP so far this season. When you combine that with Freeland giving up a lot of contact (just a 16% K rate to RHH this season), I think he has a good chance of putting the ball in play with some authority and these odds for two total bases are pretty good for a cleanup hitter in Coors Field.
Brent Rooker OVER 1.5 hits, runs, or RBI (+120 DraftKings)
I could have been really lazy and just recommended Jonah Heim here again today since he rested last night and Oakland swapped their starters so it's JP Sears today and James Kaprielian threw yesterday. Go ahead and get some action on Heim, but I'm going to roll with an Oakland hitter here at better odds instead against Andrew Heaney.
Brent Rooker is having himself a start to the season that no one could have predicted. He's hitting over .300 with 11 home runs and an OPS of 1.091. He's also sporting an awesome .491 wOBA against lefties and a .444 ISO so far this year. I love pairing him with Jesus Aguilar in mini-Oakland stacks for DFS, but let's focus on betting for now where we are getting some really nice value on a pretty good hitter in a solid matchup here.
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