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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/3/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various baseball bets.
Thanks to a rain-out between the Mets and Tigers yesterday (those Mets just can't get a break with the weather) we have 16 major league baseball games today, including some matinees.
As always, I'm here every Wednesday to give you my absolute favorite MLB bets! We focus on game outcomes here so mainly money line, run line, and game totals. If you're looking for player props we have an article for those every day, too!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CHC -195
CHC: Marcus Stroman | WSN: Jake Irvin
The Cubs are sitting a game above .500 and have been more competitive than I think a lot of people expected them to be so far this season. They get their ace back on the bump today in Washington with Marcus Stroman taking the hill. While Stroman doesn't overpower hitters or rack up strikeouts, he's been excellent at inducing groundballs and limiting the damage every time he takes the hill.
Stroman has held opponents scoreless in three of his six starts this season and allowed more than two earned runs just once - against the Dodgers. He's facing a Nats offense that has struggled to produce this season, averaging just 3.76 runs per game.
Marcus Stroman, Painted 92mph Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/Z9Nf64mPfa
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 28, 2023
Meanwhile, the Nats are rolling out minor-leaguer Jake Irvin, who had a 5+ ERA at Triple-A this year and didn't pitch all that well at Double-A last year either. Rookies often struggle in their debuts, especially guys without a true pedigree like Irvin and Chicago has been a really tough lineup for RHP to face this season.
The Cubs have been very good (17-12) on the run line this year and we are getting some decent odds here, too.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-120, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -140
TOR: Alek Manoah | BOS: Nick Pivetta
If you've read any of my content this season so far you'll know that I don't think much of Nick Pivetta or Alek Manoah. Manoah is wildly overrated and had one of the most deflated ERAs last year when you compared his results to his SIERA. Pivetta has decent strikeout stuff but gets barreled by opponents too often.
Of the two offenses, it's been Boston who has been better as they've averaged nearly 5.7 runs per game. Toronto has the better offense on paper in terms of what we expect from their lineup, but they've averaged just 4.8 runs per game. That's still better than the league average even though they are underperforming.
I continue to enjoy the renovated version of Jarred Duran.
pic.twitter.com/S8CksEASiQ— Garrett Mashburn (@G_Mashburn) May 2, 2023
Manoah gets toasted by lefties and the Boston lineup has a bunch of them who happen to be in good form with Verdugo, Yoshida, Devers, and Duran. Meanwhile, Pivetta will have to deal with the big three of Bichette, Chapman, and Guerrero Jr. for Toronto. Neither bullpen has been great either, so I think we see a lot of offense in this one.
Boston has gone over their game totals in 21 of 31 games this season. I am on the over as this one pops in a big way in my model today.
Pick: OVER 9.5 runs (-105, DK Sportsbook)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets vs. Detroit Tigers (Game 2)
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM -210
NYM: Max Scherzer | DET: Michael Lorenzen
This is my bonus bet of the day. The Mets and Tigers are two of the top three teams for NRFI this season. Max Scherzer is coming off a suspension that cost him two starts and he's going to be raring to go in this one (we know how Max is). The Detroit offense stinks and Max should set them down in order to start this one.
Lorenzen is the guy we worry about here as he's a guy who does give up a lot of contact. However, he does get around 50% ground balls and the first two hitters he will see (Marte and Nimmo) both have 50% or higher ground ball rates, too. Hopefully, he can do his part and get out of the first unscathed here as well.
Pick: NRFI (-130, DK Sportsbook)
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