RADIO
The first round of the Masters is in the books, and folks, we have a barn burner of a leaderboard. Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm, and Brooks Koepka are all -7 and in a tie for first. Hovland relied on his putter gaining +4.2 strokes, while Rahm gained +8 strokes tee to green offset by a 4 putt on his opening hole. Brooks lead the field in strokes gained approach, scorching his irons to the tune of +5.2 strokes gained. We have a bunch of talented golfers at the top of the leaderboard, making tomorrow's showdown slate even more exciting.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
A ZERO % Sam Bennett appears to have been the first amateur to record a bogey free round around Augusta. Very impressive stuff.
Highest-Owned Golfers
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
There appears to be much calmer conditions in the morning, with the wind picking up gradually throughout the day. There is a good chance that play does not get completed tomorrow. The weather, although not nearly as bad on Saturday as it appears to be tomorrow afternoon, will still be much worse and with lower temperatures and higher winds. We will most likely see the public stack the AM tee times, which will provide the most favorable conditions, without having a break that can really ruin momentum in a round too.
As always, we will be looking to take advantage of the relatively pristine conditions, while doing our best to find sold pivot options to differentiate ourselves to some degree in bigger 20 entry max contests.
Round 2 Power Rankings
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA SHOWDOWN $5K SHORT GAME [20 ENTRY MAX] , which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Scottie Scheffler is going to be 33%+ ownership wise, but after looking at his stats and watching him play today, it's tough to even contemplate that he would score less than the 46 points he scored today, in the next three rounds. His putter lost him 3.5 strokes which is essentially the difference between -4 and leading this tournament. We have to play defense with this one, particularly with him going off in the calmer conditions.
A way to get different tomorrow may be by not starting lineups with Scheffler and Brooks Koepka (65%+ combined ownership) and instead start your lineups with Rory McIlroy and then throw Brooks in there. Although Rory is not offering the same floor as Scottie right now, he sure has the same upside, both of which have been baked into his ownership projections. It almost seems inevitable Rory surges up the leaderboard after a gross and disappointing round one.
$9,000+
Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay will all three be going off in the late wave, but in order to get twice the exposure on the field with either of them, you won't have to have more than 30% of either as they played average today on top of their pessimistic weather outlook. They are good enough to have a crazy low round in the wind, particularly JT, who we saw do exactly that here last year.
Max Homa grades out slightly below Tony Finau but will see 10% less ownership than Big Tone as Homa never quite had his "stuff" today. I am a big believer in Max and I think he got the jitters out of his system today and we will root for him to have a low one tomorrow at roughly 15% ownership with an early tee time. I know we have four guys in the $9K range here, but they are ALL pivot-type plays, that will require limited exposure (the % of lineups that golfer makes up in your player pool) to reap the rewards of a great round
$8,000+
As poorly as Collin Morikawa appeared to putt today, he still gained half a stroke which is about a stroke more than his baseline which typically loses. He will get an early tee time tomorrow after a middling ball striking day by his standards. If he can heat up with both the putter and his world class irons, he is well worth a spot in your lineups. If you are looking for another high-upside $8k guy, Jason Day is playing incredibly well to only be priced $8,800, but 25%+ of the public believe this too. He does have an early tee time tomorrow as well. Lineups will start Scheffler, Day, Koepka tomorrow, potentially eclipsing 90% ownership together.
Corey Conners chipped a ball into the water today and still managed to shoot 1 over. He was super chalky heading into weeklong DFS, but since he burnt a bunch of people today with an average round, we will try capitalize on him bouncing back tomorrow as he has typically played really well here. Matthew Fitzpatrick seems to have found a little form, shooting -2 and gaining over 2 strokes ball striking, which has been atrocious lately. The tougher conditions get, the more we favor Fitz.
$7,000+
Brooksie! We have the return of major Brooks Koepka, who scorched the field with his iron play today. He also putted really well and it does give me pause whether or not he is going to be able to keep that level of play up again tomorrow. However, at $7,900 it is really tough to not roster a 4-time major winner who just gained 5 strokes on approach in a major. He has to be rostered but as mentioned above, be sure to try keep ownership for your entire team under 100% in smaller contests, with 90%-80% being the target in massive GPPs. My downloadable model has projected ownership for the entire field tomorrow.
***Ownership awareness is arguably WAY more important in showdown than weeklong as a single round of golf has SO many elements of variance that can skew a golfers performance, despite them actually playing well. Over the course of 4 days, that tends to balance itself out a little and obviously the better players will be higher owned.
Tyrrell Hatton finds himself with a morning tee time and after putting together a lack luster -1 (71) by his standards, he will be looking to bounce back in the AM. Joaquin Nieman lost -2.4 strokes on approach and gained close to a stroke everywhere else. It appears that the damage was done with two water balls on 13 and 15, costing him just shy of 3 strokes in two swings. Outside of those two holes he was playing great and is a low priced, low owned candidate to break the slate.
Si Woo Kim and Tom Hoge are both incredible ball strikers who both stunk it up today. They both have the capability to soar up the leaderboard if they can pounce on some calm AM conditions and revert back to their baseline performance entering the week.
$6,000+
J.T. Poston and Harris English are targets for us in the $6k range who both have AM tee times and minimal ownership. Cameron Champ will be the first to go off tomorrow and has typically played really well around here. If he can go nuclear with a fresh untouched course ahead of him, he may not make the cut, but he could land up scoring a lot of points trying.
Harold Varner III will be looking to improve on his ball striking tomorrow, but he shot a level par round today and seems comfortable around Augusta. Phil Mickleson and Charl Schwartzel will be our final two $6k golfers in our player pool, as they both get early tee times tomorrow and will be looking to improve on their R1 performances as past champions of this glorious event.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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