RADIO
After an eventful start to the week, it's time for a big ole' 10-game Wednesday slate and I'm ready to make more picks than usual since we have a number of smaller spreads tonight and quite a few games where my model disagrees with Vegas right now.
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. Props have been hot lately, too!
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, January 25th.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 96-107-1
- Against the Spread: 45-53-1
- Game/Team Totals: 11-24
- Moneyline Parlay: 15-20
- Teasers: 23-10
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Denver Nuggets (+8) @ Milwaukee Bucks (231 total)
I am not sure what I am missing here with this line. Yes, Denver played last night and barely squeaked out a win against the Pelicans, but they should have all their main guys with the exception of Michael Porter Jr. who may still be dealing with a personal issue. The Bucks were impressive the other night against Detroit as they demolished them and Khris Middleton returned to action for limited minutes. But that was Detroit, a bottom 5 team in the NBA who didn't even have all their guys and the Bucks are missing Bobby Portis tonight.
Denver has been playing too well to be this big of an underdog. Jokic vs. Giannis will be a must-watch match-up, but I am banking on Denver keeping this one close and won't be surprised if they rise to the challenge and even pull off the upset.
The Pick: Nuggets +8 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (238.5 total)
Not many people thought that the OKC Thunder would be doing what they are doing this year, but they've been a better team than Atlanta this year and defeated them 121-114 back in December. The Hawks are nursing a few injuries to DeAndre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu, too, while OKC is pretty healthy. OKC has been the most profitable team to bet on ATS this year and I see no reason not to back them at home here against a very inconsistent Atlanta team that they've already shown they can beat.
The Pick: Thunder ML (+105)
Toronto Raptors (+3) @ Sacramento Kings (238 total)
Let's put some more respect on the Kings here, Vegas! Sacto has won 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss coming to the Sixers, who are a really good team. The Raptors have been...well, a middling team at best and while they have a very talented core, they lack depth and can run very hot and cold based on how well guys like Siakam, VanVleet, and Trent Jr. are shooting any given night.
The Kings are playing some great basketball right now and like OKC, they've been absolutely awesome ATS this year for bettors. I am riding them here again tonight in a game that should be competitive, but that I think they ultimately pull out in the end.
The Pick: Kings -3 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (+3) @ Golden State Warriors (245 total)
I am still pretty mad at Memphis for downgrading Morant and Adams on Monday and then losing to the Kings after I had already locked them into my bets. But I can't see any reason why they'd downgrade anyone today in this huge matchup against the defending champs.
The Warriors are trending in the right direction and finally getting healthy, but Memphis has been the better team this year and I think they match up pretty well against them. This should be an awesome game and even if you view Golden State as the better team when healthy, Memphis is a live dog and worthy of a money line bet based on how well they've played this year. I look for Morant and company to avenge their Christmas Day loss and pick up a hard-fought road win here.
The Pick: Grizzlies ML (+135)
San Antonio Spurs (+6.5) @ LA Lakers (243.5 total)
This number keeps moving and as much as the "but it's the Lakers" factor keeps telling me to avoid it, I can't see how LA doesn't come out and steamroll the tanking Spurs at home in Anthony Davis's return. They have been playing well without him and with Davis back in the mix, as well as the debut of Rui Hachimura who was acquired from the Wizards earlier this week, this Lakers team is poised to make a run here in the second half.
The Pick: Lakers -6.5 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game/Team Totals
Utah Jazz (+3.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (238 total)
I haven't made a pick on a total in some time, but this is one where my model disagrees in a major way! I had to dig into this one and see if the trends back it up and they actually do quite a bit. Here's how.
While both teams have been covering the over more than the under this season, their recent performances back the under here. In their last ten games, Utah was under 238 in their games 6 out of 10 times while Portland was under this number 7 out of 10 times.
My points model is weighing the last ten-game sample more than it was earlier in the year as Vegas has been jacking up these totals to respond to more scoring in the league. A 238 total would have been one of the highest on the board back in October, but right now this game is only the 4th-highest total tonight. Portland is scoring only 112.5 points per game over their last ten games, with Utah scoring 118.5. Both teams are allowing around 115-116 points per game on defense. The pace is actually under league average so unless both offenses shoot the lights out, I think the under is a very strong play.
In the two times that these two teams met earlier this season, they finished at 227 and 231 points. Bet the under!
The Pick: UNDER 238 (-110), I like it as low as under 235.5 if it drops today
MONEYLINE PARLAY
SAC + LAL = (+134 DK)
FAVORITE UNDERDOG TEASER (buying 4 points)
DEN +12, OKC +5.5, MEM +7
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