Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 8: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 8 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

I'm back, baby! It's time to make some NFL wagers! Week 8 of the NFL season is here and I'm back with more NFL bets. Let's go for a third straight positive ROI week, shall we?

Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week: 3-2
• Season ATS: 12-13
• Season O/U: 5-12
• Season Overall: 16-24

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads

TEN -2.5 (-115 DK)

I’ve been staring at this spread all week and it just doesn’t make much sense to me at all. I’ve been waiting on it to move, but it has only budged a half point.

If the home team gets three points, how on earth does anyone view the Texans and Titans are equal teams? Tennessee is 4-2 and has reeled off four wins in a row after their tough start to the year. Meanwhile, the Texans are 1-4-1 and are going to likely be missing Nico Collins on offense.

This game is a mismatch for the Tennessee offense as Derrick Henry should be able to roll over the soft Texans rush defense. And yes, the Titans’ secondary is their weakness but do we really think Davis Mills is going to be able to take advantage? The Texans have battled this year, I give them that and if this spread were bigger than a touchdown, you could probably consider them worthy underdogs, but at only 2.5 points, give me the road favorites here to cover with ease.

In fact, I bet them earlier in the week at -3 and again at -6.5 on alt spreads for better odds, the Titans will win this game by a touchdown!

CIN -3 (-110 DK)

The big news this week was that Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase is going to be out for a while and maybe even the rest of the season. That sucks for fantasy owners and Bengals fans alike, but it doesn’t mean that Cincy is all of a sudden not better than Cleveland.

The Browns continue to disappoint on a weekly basis and I have news for their fans - the return of Deshaun Watson isn’t going to fix their defense, which continues to be the weakest part of this team. Their pass defense in particular has been very vulnerable this season and that just happens to be where Cincy is hitting its stride. Burrow is coming off a game in which he threw for nearly 500 yards and ran in a score for the second week in a row.

While sacks were a major issue for Cincy earlier in the year, they haven’t been recently and Burrow is getting rid of the ball and making great decisions with it right now. Losing his favorite wideout is going to hurt, but this team still has another elite receiver in Tee Higgins, a great pass-catching back in Joe Mixon, and a really solid tight end in Hayden Hurst.

The Bengals circle the wagons and win a divisional game on the road here. All they need is a field goal win to push, and I think they win by something closer to a touchdown.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

CHI-DAL UNDER 42.5 (-110 DK)

This game pops for an under in a big way in my model. Other than last week’s big performance against the Patriots, the Bears’ offense has been pretty futile for most of the season and they get easily their toughest challenge this week against a Dallas unit that is one of the best in the league.

Justin Fields takes a lot of sacks and Dallas will be pressuring him often on Sunday with their elite pass rush. Chicago can run the ball, and they’d be wise to look at how the Eagles did that to neutralize the Dallas defense. But running the ball takes time off the clock too and shortens the game, which points me toward the under.

Dallas will likely try to establish the run too, as they continue to ease Dak Prescott back into action. As a big home favorite, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got up early here and tried to take the air out of the ball, feeding Tony Pollard (with Zeke likely on the shelf).

The trends really line up well here as Dallas has hit the under in five of seven games this year and has one of the largest negative +/- at -9.5. Chicago has been -3.3 through their first seven games too. Both teams want to run, the Bears’ defense is decent, and the Cowboys’ defense is great. Let’s hammer this under.

LV-NO OVER 49.5 (-110 DK)

Now for some offense! We get a totally opposite match-up here as Vegas and New Orleans have both been teams that have been playing in high-scoring games. Vegas has gone over their total in four of six games and New Orleans in five of seven!

The Saints have the largest positive +/- this season at a whopping +10.6. It has more to do with their disaster of a defense than it does with them having an elite offense, however.

In fact, neither of these teams plays any defense. They’re both near the bottom in almost every statistical category this year. And with both offenses being in good recent form, I think we see a bunch of points scored on both sides in a pretty close, high-scoring affair.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.

5-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: TEN/DAL/PHI/BUF/MIN (+369 DK)

5-TEAM 7 POINT UNDERDGOG TEASER: NYG/NYJ/NO/WAS/DET (+320 DK)

That takes the spreads to NYG +10, NYJ +9.5, NO +8, WAS +10, and DET +10.5

A full touchdown for all the dogs and 10+ for three of the five! Heck, the Saints and Jets could win outright and so could the Giants.

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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