RADIO
Week 7 of the NFL season is here, and I continue to understand less and less about this league. In a spot where they should have blown up their opponent, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell flat on their face in a 20-18 defeat. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons caught the San Francisco 49ers in the middle of an injury storm and romped their way to a 28-14 win. If someone asked for the story of the NFL season thus far, I would tell them that parity had never been more prevalent. 23 of the league's 32 teams are within one game of a .500 record. The bottom line is that we have to take almost every single game with a grain of salt with the way things have been going this year.
Last week was another strong week for the column. All three of the quarterbacks that were recommended as strong plays for the week finished inside the top 13 at the position with Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings missing the top 12 by just 0.4 points. As far as the sits of the week go, we were helped out by injuries, but it was a good week overall. P.J. Walker of the Carolina Panthers and Kenny Pickett of the Pittsburgh Steelers both left early with injuries and finished as QB30 and QB25 respectively. Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams was the top of that group with a QB18 finish to his name.
Well, it's finally that time of the year where bye weeks start to kick in which makes your life as a fantasy manager even more difficult. We have four teams on a bye this week. Of the four that are on the shelf for the week, three of the four have been top 10 players at their position, including two of the top three scorers overall. It's going to be a little more difficult than usual to replace their production than some of the other quarterbacks around the league, but it won't be impossible.
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Washington Commanders Pass Rush vs. Aaron Rodgers
As a Green Bay Packer fan, it’s tough to admit it, but quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the offense as a whole just haven’t looked right through their first six games. They’ll put together a good drive or two or even a couple of quarters at a time, but they’re not playing complete games right now. Through six games, using standard fantasy scoring, Rodgers has yet to score more than 16.88 fantasy points in a game. Meanwhile, through six games last season, he had gone over that number in five out of six contests. A major reason for his struggles has been the inconsistency of his offensive line.
Rodgers has been under pressure on 24.3 percent of his dropbacks, which is the 11th-highest rate in the league. Now, he has a matchup with the Washington Commanders, who, while they have struggled this season, their defensive front has been really strong all year. They rank fourth in sacks and adjusted sack rate. The key battle of the day will be Montez Sweat vs Green Bay’s tackles. Sweat has three sacks over his last two games, and, while tackle David Bakhtiari has been strong as a pass blocker, right tackle Elgton Jenkins has been struggling. Until the Green Bay offense proves otherwise, you can’t trust them.
Verdict: Sit 'Em
New England Patriots Pass Rush vs. Justin Fields
You have to start feeling bad for Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields at some point. Some of his wounds are self-inflicted, but the guy just hasn’t been set up for success. He has a patchwork offensive line in front of him, and his pass-catching weapons are one of the worst groups in the NFL. Chicago is tied for last with 23 sacks allowed, but their adjusted sack rate of 15.7 percent is 5.4 percent worse than any other team. Even on the rare occasions they’re dropping back to pass, Fields is getting battered around, to the tune of a 31.2 percent pressure rate.
Now, the New England Patriots are hosting Fields on Monday Night Football in a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Patriots are 2-1 in their last three with the lone loss being by three on the road in overtime to Green Bay. Their defense ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate, and they should have no problem getting after Fields in this one.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Green Bay Packers Pass Rush vs. Taylor Heinicke
This one is both a commentary on the Green Bay pass rush along with their run defense. Green Bay is ninth by DVOA against the pass, but they’re 32nd against the run. In their last three games, teams have stayed in the game and ultimately won by having the ability to run at will. Washington is 29th in both categories, but you have to imagine, with a backup quarterback under center, they’ll be looking to run more often than pass. Against this defense, it makes a lot of sense.
Washington Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke played against Green Bay last season and had 268 passing yards to go with one touchdown and one interception. He was also sacked four times while running 10 times for 95 yards. Unless Washington plans to revert to the offense to what they were running last year, Heinicke is likely going to have a low volume passing game that sees him come in with a quiet fantasy week.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Seattle Seahawks Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert
One week after failing to throw a touchdown for just the second game of his career, I think Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is in a great bounceback spot. The Seattle Seahawks are in the middle of the pack in terms of pass rush, with an adjusted sack rate that ranks 15th in the league. They’re also doing that while blitzing at the 10th-lowest mark in the NFL.
Despite playing without his All-Pro left tackle and All-Pro center, Herbert has been processing and getting rid of the ball to avoid sacks at a great clip. The Chargers’ 3.5 percent adjusted sack rate ranks second in the NFL, and he’s been sacked just seven times in six games. Seattle is 10th in average fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and they just don’t quite have the horses to slow down Herbert yet.
Verdict: Start 'Em
Detroit Lions Pass Rush vs. Dak Prescott
This play could be quite interesting. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to play this week after missing the last four games with a thumb injury. He practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday, and there are some concerns that he could be rushing back. However, in a matchup with the Detroit Lions, it’s one of the easier matchups he’ll have all season. His offensive line has also been strong in his absence with the fifth-best adjusted sack rate league wide.
The Lions have been explosive on offense, but they have struggled on defense. They are last in the league in sacks, and 28th in adjusted sack rate. By DVOA, they rank 32nd against the pass and 31st against the run. Essentially, teams are able to move the ball at will on them right now. Dak should be able to get to work early and have a smooth reintegration process as the team starts to push into the middle weeks of their schedule.
Verdict: Start ‘Em
Carolina Panthers Pass Rush vs. Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady had an absolutely brutal loss in Week 6, but he’s poised to rebound in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers. For all of the heat that he throws the way of his offensive line, they’ve truly not been that terrible. He’s only been sacked nine times this season, and they rank second in pressure rate allowed along with being tied for 10th in the number of times he’s been hit. Just looking at the numbers, while they haven’t been great running the ball, I don’t know why he’s so mad at them when it comes to passing the ball.
The Panthers are in a free fall right now, and there doesn’t seem to be a clear end in sight. Despite boasting Brian Burns and a number of other highly drafted players on defense, the Panthers rank 29th in adjusted sack rate and tied for 29th in sacks. Maybe they’re getting pressure but not converting it into actual sacks? Nope. They rank 25th in pressure rate and in the bottom half of the league in hurry and knockdown rate. A lot of arrows are pointing up for Brady this week.
Verdict: Start 'Em
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