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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday RotoBallers, it's Division Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 12, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 3-4 (-1.68 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Braves
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: ATL -136
PHI: Zack Wheeler | ATL: Kyle Wright
After starting the postseason on a rather hot note, we have dropped our last three plays. It's unfortunate and took a bit of bad luck, but we'll take it to the chin and bounce back today. I'll start off by running back the first inning under in Atlanta this afternoon.
The visiting Phillies will send Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.62 ERA) to the mound this afternoon. Wheeler was great in the first inning this season as well as the Wild Card series when he kept St. Louis off the scoreboard. He held opponents scoreless in the first inning in 11 of 13 starts on the road and in 23 of 26 starts overall in the entirety of the 2022 season so far. He did allow two runs in the opening frame against the Braves back on June 28th, but that start was in Philadelphia and accounted for two of the six runs he's allowed against them across three starts on the year.
Conversely, the Braves will send Kyle Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA) to the mound. The Phillies got to Braves ace Max Fried early and often yesterday afternoon, and while I hope they have the same success today, it can wait until after the first inning. While Wright held opponents off the scoreboard in the first in just 22 of 30 starts on the year, he was much better at home, allowing a first-inning tally in just two of 17 starts at Truist Park. He made three starts against Philly this season, holding them scoreless in the first in all three starts.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the under at -118 this afternoon. My model gives the under a very similar chance of hitting as yesterday, sitting at 61.67%. This is good for "true" odds of -161, and in a perfect run-back spot, I have no problem taking this number.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Dodgers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: LAD -205
SD: Yu Darvish | LAD: Clayton Kershaw
We'll head out to Los Angeles for the second play of the day: this time a strikeout prop. I withheld from taking any props throughout the regular season since some of my colleagues here at RotoBaller wrote pieces that were specific to them, but with only two games on the slate today and the value that I'm seeing here, I can't pass this one up.
I'll be backing Padres starter Yu Darvish here. I talked down Darvish's playoff pitching a bit too much last week when I wrote up the Mets' money line, but he went on to prove me wrong. I've always been a fan of his, and there's no doubt that I hate the Mets, so despite losing the bet I was happy that he proved me wrong. He'll take on a Dodgers lineup that's done well putting the ball in play this season, ranking 23rd in K% (21.6%) against right-handed starters.
However, over the last 30 days, that number ticked up to 22.7%, which ranks 19th in the Majors. While that's still a good number, I'm still confident in this play. Darvish has struck out at least six batters in four of his last five starts, with the only start he didn't hit that number in was that Mets start last Friday. Nevertheless, he hit the over in nine straight starts prior to that, and in three of four starts against the Dodgers this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us pretty good value here, with the number sitting at 5.5 for a price of -110 as I'm typing this. I project Darvish to a 25.66% strikeout rate today, with a strikeout projection of 6.12. Between his recent production and his projection, I have no problem backing this play.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you in tomorrow!
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