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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/7/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We've finally reached the MLB playoffs. Obviously the Wild Card round will be a bit different this year than in years past, so we get a nice four-game slate today. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, October 7, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 82-83-2, -20.53 units
- Sides: 37-38-1, -13.62 units
- Totals: 44-45-1, -8.49 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Cardinals
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: STL -112
PHI: Zack Wheeler | STL: Jose Quintana
We finished off the regular season with a 1-1 record on Wednesday, falling short while backing Shohei Ohtani and the Angels against Oakland. We'll take a look at two different plays today,
We'll start off our playoff run out in St. Louis, where we'll take a look at a first-five play this afternoon. The visiting Phillies will be sending Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) to the mound. Wheeler is making just his fourth start since coming back from an injury back in August and has been extremely impressive since returning, allowing just one earned run in 15 innings across those three starts. He's also seen great success against St. Louis since the beginning of 2021, tossing 22 innings while allowing just one earned run across three starts.
The Cardinals will be sending Jose Quintana (6-7, 2.93 ERA) to the mound. If you told me before the season that Jose Quintana would be a Game 1 starter in the playoffs, I probably would've called you a liar, but here we are. Quintana made just one start against the Phils this season, back in July when he was still with Pittsburgh. He tossed 5.2 scoreless innings, keeping the Philly offense under wraps.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the F5 under at 3.5 (-120), which seems to be good value when you consider both starters' success against their counterparts on the year. While I typically say that data gets thrown out the window when the playoffs start, but I'm confident that this game, at least the first half of it, will stay under.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 Runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Mets
O/U: 6 | Moneyline: NYM -156
SD: Yu Darvish | NYM: Max Scherzer
I'll head out up north to Queens for our second play of the day. After the Braves made a late push to take the NL East crown from the Mets, New York will have to welcome San Diego for a best-of-three set to see who takes on the one-seed Dodgers in the NLDS.
The visiting Padres will be sending Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) to the mound. Darvish had been good for San Diego this season, but I do feel he's the lesser of the two starters here. It should be noted,though, that he allowed just one earned run in 14 innings across two starts against New York this season. While both pitchers are seasoned in the playoffs, this will be Darvish's second start in the playoffs since 2017.
On the other hand, the Mets will be sending Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) to the mound. While I mentioned that both of these pitchers are experienced in playoffs, Scherzer is a bit more experienced, and a lot better. Scherzer hasn't allowed more than three earned in any of his last 13 playoff starts, and I don't see that ending tonight. He tossed a quality start against the Padres back in July, allowing two runs across six innings of work.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Mets money line at -156, and while I wish I got this a bit earlier when the number is lower, my model gives the Mets a 61.14% chance of winning this one, good for "true" odds just above the Vegas odds at -157. While my favorite adage is "the Mets will always Mets", meaning that the Mets will always find a way to screw things up, I just can't see it happening tonight.
Pick: Mets Money Line (-156) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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