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I can't believe it. Months of waiting, painful empty weekends, and now a quarter of the NFL season is suddenly gone! But I'm not going to lie, I love the moment when the whistle blows to end the week on Monday nights. It is just the confirmation that we have another full round of data in our hands, and for a nerd like me, that's great. As a reader that likes this type of content, you might feel the same.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 4 - TE/WR Air Yards Don't Lie - NextGenStats
If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tells us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed). I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of air yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total air yards.
With four weeks in the books, we can (at least moderately) say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean air yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-4 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 10 targets for both WR and TE.
Cushion / Separation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-6% / 2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.
That's why, in fact, eight of nine qualified players with SEP figures of 4.5+ yards after four weeks are tight ends. The only WR is, of course, perennial oddity Deebo Samuel (4.7).
John Bates (5.3) and Noah Fant (5.1) are the only two players with SEP marks above 4.8 yards through Week 4. That said, they have been targeted only 11 times each so we have yet to see if they can sustain that high SEP over a larger span/volume of targets.
No other player with 12+ targets has a SEP above 4.2 yards (TE Will Dissly).
Four players still have CUSH marks of 8.0+ yards through four games. All of them are wide receivers and only one (Equanimeous St. Brown, 5.5) is averaging fewer than 13.8 FPPG in PPR leagues. Take St. Brown's numbers with a grain of salt, though, as he's been targeted just 11 times while catching only four of those passes.
Drake London (8.2), Tyler Lockett (8.1), and Chris Olave (8.0) SEP averages should be trusted, though, as all of them have been targeted at least 32 times so far this season.
Of the 29 players with 30+ targets through Week 4, the average CUSH sits at 6.3 yards. London, Lockett, and Olave are the only heavy-usage players with 8.0+ CUSH yards while only Mike Williams (4.6) and Ja'Marr Chase (4.4) are below 5.2 yards of CUSH right now.
Both Williams (2.4) and Chase (2.9) have below-average SEP figures, too. In fact, William's 2.4 SEP is the second-lowest among players with 30+ targets only above DK Metcalf's 2.3 yards. That said, Metcalf's 6.1 CUSH is way larger than Williams' figure.
DeVante Parker is the pass-catcher covered the closest by defenders as they're giving him a CUSH of just 3.2 yards. Nobody is below 4.2 (Mike Evans) such yards. Parker also has the fourth-smallest SEP figure at 1.9 yards on average.
There are three receivers separating from their main defenders even fewer yards than Parker: Michael Thomas (1.8 SEP), DJ Chark (1.7), and Alec Pierce (1.3). All things considered, though Parker still has the lowest CUSH+SEP of all qualified pass catchers at a measly 5.1 yards compared to second-lowest Alec Pierce's 6.3 yards.
With the exception of Deebo Samuel (16.0 FPPG) separating from their main defender isn't working that well for any other pass catcher through Week 4. Samuel is the only player averaging more than 12 FPPG among those posting SEP figures of at least 4.0 yards.
Kyle Pitts's main problem when it comes to his fantasy production is more related to the way Atlanta's offense operates than his own talents, but defenders aren't making things easy for him either. Pitts has the lowest SEP (2.1 yards) among TEs with 20+ targets through four games. Darren Waller (2.4) is second, followed by Travis Kelce (2.5).
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 17+ FPPG: 5.9 CUSH, 2.9 SEP
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <10 FPPG: 6.2 CUSH, 3.1 SEP
In a few words: don't rely on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6% / 62%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy points he scores.
This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Every player except Darnell Mooney that appears at the top of the table (all of them with a TAY% of at least 40 percent) is averaging 15+ FPPG.
If you want a quick proxy to mediocre/short-on-talent offenses, you can divide each player TAY% by the number of targets he's gotten. Large resulting values (Mooney, St. Brown, Parker, Allan Lazard, Randall Cobb, Treylon Burks, Marvin Jones Jr., Robbie Anders, Kyle Pitts, and Sterling Shepard lead the way) mean that those particular players got most of the team air yardage even on a low volume of targets, so you get an idea of how bad the other options on offense are...
Mooney getting 40.4 TAY% of Chicago's offense is just ludicrous considering he's been targeted just 16 times. DeVante Parker has the second-largest TAY% among players with 16 or fewer targets but Parker's TAY% is already down at 29.2 percent.
Mooney's teammate Equanimeous St. Brown (22.1%) is the only player with <15 targets and a TAY% larger than 18.9 percent.
Only three players are getting targeted deeper than 17 yards downfield: Chark (18.2 TAY), Olave (18.3) and DeVante Parker (19.3). All of them have TAY% shares above 24.5 percent among their teammates. Olave (15.1) is the only one averaging more than 8.2 FPPG among those three, while also having at least twice as many targets (36) as any of the other two (Parker has 16, Chark 18).
Rookie George Pickens (16.9) and Darnell Mooney (15.1) are the only two players getting targeted beyond 15+ yards down the field on average who have yet to score a touchdown this season. Both of them have averaged fewer than 7.0 FPPG through the first four games of the season.
Of the 31 players targeted no deeper than 6.5 yards down the field, 21 are tight ends. Dallas Goedert leads (trails?) them all with a TAY of just 2.3 yards followed by John Bates (2.5) and WR Deebo Samuel (2.7). No other player is below 3.2 TAY.
Romeo Doubs (6.4) is the only player targeted at <6.5 TAY with a TAY% above 20 percent. The closest comparison would be TE Zach Ertz (6.1 TAY and 18.8 TAY%).
Chris Olave (18.3 TAY) is the only WR1 truly used as a very deep threat constantly this season. He's the only player with 30+ targets (36) and an aDOT above 12.6. At the other end of the spectrum, Amon-Ra St. Brown (33 targets) and Curtis Samuel (37) are the only two WRs averaging TAY figures below 6.0 yards.
Tyler Higbee (3.5 aDOT) is the only pass catcher with 30+ targets and a TAY below 4.3 yards through Week 4.
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 17+ FPPG: 9.9 aDOT, 33.8% TAY%
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <10 FPPG: 9.4 aDOT, 15.6% TAY%
Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 82% / 80% / 32% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because well, they hand out actual fantasy points. That's why all pass-catchers putting up double-digit FPPG so far have caught at least 11 passes through Week 4.
On the other hand, 37 of 71 players with fewer than 10 FPPG have yet to catch 10 passes this season. On average, this "underperforming" group of 71 players has gotten nearly 16 total targets through Week 4 compared to an average of 30 total targets by those with 10+ FPPG in the same span.
Only 11 TEs have met the target thereshold for this week's leaderboard compared to 118 WRs. Will Dissly is the only qualified TE with fewer than 20 targets through four games played.
Tyler Higbee leads all tight ends in targets with 38, followed by Mark Andrews with 36. No other TE is above 34 while as many as 18 WRs have already gotten targeted 35+ times through four games. Funny nugget: Higbee is the lone qualified tight end without a touchdown through Week 4.
At this point last season, nine players had gotten 40+ targets. That number sits at eight this year with one clear leader: Cooper Kupp and his 54 targets, seven more than second-best Davante Adams (47).
Not only is Kupp the most-targeted player through Week 4, but he's also in possession of a 77.8% catch rate that ranks 10th-highest among qualified players. No other pass catcher with 35+ targets has such a high catch rate. Only Tyler Lockett (34 targets) has a higher catch rate (79.4%) than Kupp while having received at least 30+ targets.
Will Dissly and Olamide Zaccheaus, albeit on super-low volume (12 and 10 targets respectively), are the only qualified players still boasting a perfect 100 percent catch rate. Noah Fant and Devin Duvernay are the only other player above 90%.
All qualified players averaging 10+ FPPG have caught at least half of the targets they have received with Rashod Bateman trailing all other players at 50% (11-of-22). Garrett Wilson (20-of-39) and Terry MacLaurin (14-of-27) follow him at the bottom of the table with rates below 52%.
The true-worst pass catchers have been Scotty Miller and Shi Smith, both hauling in just 30.8% of their targets (13 each) through Week 4. DJ More is the worst large-volume (29 targets) pass catcher among qualified players sitting at a 44.8% catch rate, followed closely by Kyle Pitts (45.5% catch rate on 22 targets).
Touchdowns are so scarce and unique that they should be considered "bonus plays" more than anything else. Dissly is the most-efficient touchdown scorer with one touchdown every four targets (three TDs on 12 targets). Duvernay (three on 13) is the only other player scoring a TD in less than every five targets he sees.
Higbee (38), Lockett (34), and Diontae Johnson (37) have seen the most targets without scoring a touchdown. A.J. Brown is the least-efficient scorer, needing 38 targets to score just one touchdown. Two other receivers (Olave and Brandin Cooks) follow him with one touchdown on 36 targets each.
Marquise Brown is the least-efficient multi-touchdown scorer, needing 22.5 targets per touchdown (two TDs in 45 targets) followed by Tyreek Hill's 21.5 (two in 23).
As many as four tight ends have already scored three touchdowns: Andrews, Kelce, Dissly, and T.J. Hockenson. Only two players, both wide receivers (Jahan Dotson and Stefon Diggs) have scored four touchdowns through Week 4.
"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 87% / 78% / negative-2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
I guess Tyreek Hill isn't missing Patrick Mahomes that much judging by his league-leading 477 yards in just four games and ninth-highest YPT mark of 11.1. Kupp might be the leading man in the targets department, but he's a solid 75 yards down on Hill's tally.
Even though Hill has been extraordinary, he's still 13 yards short of what Deebo Samuel had done at this point last year when he had 490 yards through Week 4 of the 2021 season.
All receivers with more than 225 yards have an average of at least 11+ FPPG through Week 4. Nelson Agholor sets the breakpoint with 9.6 FPPG and 225 yards.
All pass catchers averaging 17+ FPPG with the exception of Michael Thomas have racked up at least 235 yards. Thomas has that average on a much lower 171 yards but has scored three touchdowns to boost his fantasy production a bit and into that realm.
A.J. Green (2.2), Shi Smith (2.8), and Scotty Miller (2.9) are the only qualified players averaging fewer than 3.0 YPT. All of them have seen 13 targets through Week 4.
Irv Smith Jr., DJ Moore, and Hayden Hurst all have at least 20+ receptions and 10+ catches through Week 4 but are averaging fewer than 5.0 YPT.
Among borderline-qualifiers (10 targets) Olamide Zaccheaus has the most yards (174) by a mile over second-best Pharaoh Brown's 72. That's nothing incredible great, though, as Zaccheaus is still averaging a measly 7.9 FPPG through Week 4.
As many as 32 of the total 129 players with 10+ targets through Week 4 have yet to reach 100 yards over the season. Nine of them have at least scored one touchdown, and only three of the 32 have yet to catch at least five passes.
Chris Godwin (9.7) is the only player close to averaging 10 FPPG while not having at least 100 receiving yards under his belt through Week 4.
There are only two players with more than 87% of his yards coming after the catch: Christian Watson (98%) and Jonnu Smith (93.1%).
Of the eight players currently boasting YAC% figures above 70 percent, six of them are tight ends. Only Watson and Deebo Samuel (82.1%) are part of that group while labeled WRs.
Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 8% / 8% / 18%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Dallas Goedert has made the most damage after the catch with 208 total YAC through Week 4. Samuel (202) is the only player who has already broken the 200-YAC barrier. The separation is a bit larger on a per-reception basis, with Goedert at 13 YAC/R to Samuel's 11.2. Rashod Bateman (10.5) is the only other player averaging more than nine YAC/R.
The truth is that Goedert has not overperformed the expectations by much. Goedert's YACAE of 3.2 ranks "only" as the sixth-highest figure through Week 4. Samuel and Bateman are above him, same as Hockenson, Tyler Boyd, and Mo Alie-Cox with the former four all above 4.0 YACAE.
Alie-Cox is the clear outlier in this group, though, with his FPPG sitting below the double-digit barrier at just 8.7. All other top-six YACAE players are averaging at least 11.3 FPPG in PPR leagues.
Goedert and Pharaoh Brown have been in very similar situations judging by NGS's model. They have averaged 9.8 and 9.5 xYAC/R respectively but Godert has outperformed those expectations by 3.2 yards while Brown has underperformed them by minus-1.8 YAC/R.
Of course, Brown (-1.8) sits at the very bottom of the YACAE leaderboard with only another player (Kyle Phillips, -1.6) below a minus-1.5 YACAE. No wonder these two are averaging 4.7 and 3.4 FPPG respectively through Week 4 of the 2022 season.
As always, you can look at this from two different angles: over/underperformance in YAC related to FPPG, and the other way around.
- Players averaging 17+ FPPG are overperforming their xYAC/R by an average of 0.6 yards
- Players averaging <10 FPPG are still overperforming their xYAC/R but only at an average of 0.2 yards
From the other perspective.
- Players with YACAE figures above 1.0 yards are averaging 10.9 FPPG
- Players with YACAE figures below 0.0 yards are averaging 8.5 FPPG.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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