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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/17/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! The weekend is here. We bounced back on Sunday, cashing both of our plays. I've had a decent week thus far just keeping it light, but hope to have a big weekend. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 17, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 32-38-1, -13.55 units
- Sides: 25-26, -10.56 units
- Totals: 6-12-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Cubs
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CHC +146
ATL: Charlie Morton | CHC: Keegan Thompson
I'll head out to the Windy City for our first play of the day, as the Braves and Cubs open up their weekend series. The Braves have been absolutely dominant of late, winning 14 (!!!) straight ball games. This has to come to an end soon, but I won't be picking a side here. I'll be looking at the over in this one, as the Braves and Charlie Morton (4-3, 5.67 ERA) takes on the Cubs behind Keegan Thompson (6-2, 3.67 ERA).
Charlie Morton has struggled all season, as his ERA indicates, though his xFIP does show signs of potential positive regression at 4.21. Nevertheless, he's still allowing 27.5% hard contact on the year, and I have the Cubs projected for 33.35% hard contact today. On the other hand, Thompson comes into this one due for regression, given his 4.53 xFIP and 28.8% hard contact rate. That regression may very well come against Atlanta, as the Braves project for 36.85% hard contact today.
While I really would have LOVED this play at 7.5, I have no problem taking it at 8, especially at -112 odds. The over is an astonishing 11-1 in Charlie Morton starts this season, and has hit in seven of Thompson's last ten appearances. All trends are pointing to the over here, so I have no trouble riding it, especially considering my model gives this game a 59.41% chance of going over.
Pick: Braves/Cubs OVER 8 (-112) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL +130
TB: Shane Baz | BAL: Dean Kremer
I'll head out to Baltimore for our second play of the day as the Rays and Orioles open up a divisional weekend set. I'll be backing the road team in this one, as I think the Rays are slightly undervalued here, with Shane Baz (0-1, 19.29 ERA) on the mound. He'll take on Dean Kremer (2-2, 3.86 ERA) and the Orioles this evening.
While Baz struggled in his season debut, allowing five earned runs on just three hits as well as three walks, this is uncharacteristic of the 23-year-old righty. He walked just four batters in 13 innings in AAA before making his debut and was stellar with a 2.03 ERA with the Major League club in 2021. On the other hand, Dean Kremer has pitched well given his ERA this season but is due for some massive regression given his 5.21 xFIP.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us -154 odds on Tampa Bay, good for 60.63% odds. My model gives the Rays a 67.23% chance of winning this game. Despite the small sample size, I would still give the Rays the pitching advantage in this one. I fully expect Shane Baz to bounce back from his poor debut and shut the Orioles down. Should Baz only go 3-4 innings, I still have faith in the Rays' bullpen to get the job done. The Rays have dominated Baltimore, winning 44 of the last 58 matchups including 13 of 16 in Baltimore.
Pick: Rays Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Friday!
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