Quarterback Risers for Fantasy Football - ADP Draft Analysis

June 18, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at quarterback risers for 2022 fantasy football drafts. These NFL QBs are rising up draft boards, and he analyzes their ADPs for value.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-May to mid-June using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three quarterback risers.

Quarterbacks - ADP Risers

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons

Slowly but surely, Mariota's stock keeps raising daily. Of course, a 20-pick increase in ADP is not really a thing to call home about, but it's already approaching a full two-round bump in the past few weeks and the trend seems to still show a solid upwards slope. That feels right, and at Mariota's current ADP around 192th OVR, I'm not even mad betting on the veteran. In late May, Mariota was quoted saying he's "hungry to get back on the field again [as a starter]". Mariota is now paired with Arthur Smith once more as he already was in Tennessee, where he was sent to the bench in favor of Ryan Tannehill.

That said, Atlanta's backup quarterback is rookie Desmond Ridder. Ridder, while projected as a future productive player, is not even remotely close to that stage of his development yet. Barring a cataclysm, Mariota should hold onto his QB1 role all year long, even more with the Falcons playing for nothing and missing key offensive players such as Calvin Ridley – so, yeah, it's not that they will be able to blame Mariota for any of the team woes-to-come. As I said, and even PFF projects him to a measly QB30 finish next season, I'd still throw a super-late dart toward Mariota or at least try and snatch him from the WW as a bench player just in case. Surefire starter, veteran, knowledgeable, and a pro that knows what it's like to underperform and get sent to the bench. I'm not hating it.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Whether he likes it or not, good old Baker is as good as done in Cleveland. It is what it is, and he better comes to grips with it and the huge question mark flying above his head regarding his future in the NFL– if he has any at all. Not only did the Browns pay big bucks to land Deshaun Watson, but they also brought his backup to town in Jacoby Brissett, who everybody in Cleveland and the rest of the living breathing world considers the Browns QB2 entering 2022. In the latest development of the Baker-Browns saga, the franchise allowed him to attend the mandatory minicamp this month. Go figure.

Mayfield can still end up on another team (Carolina? Seattle?) and that would soften the fantasy blow a bit if only because – one has to assume – he would go from the bench to a QB1/QB2 role at the very least if not a bona fide 17-game starter. The Panthers seem to be ahead of all other teams in terms of their interest and willingness to pull the trigger, though it depends on Cleveland paying Baker some of his hefty salaries as compensation. If and only if Mayfield gets traded should he be drafted in fantasy leagues at all. Even if he gets to start for CAR/SEA, it'd take a massive effort from him to finish as anything more than a mid-tier QB2 next season, as has been the case in his four years in Cleveland – Baker topped at QB16 in his rookie year and last season only averaged 12.9 FPPG.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Gotta love the Texans for their faith and trust in second-year QB Davis Mills. In an NFL offseason that has the likes of Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo available for a trade, Houston is sticking to their homegrown talent in Mills. That's fantastic, if you ask me.

Head Coach Lovie Smith showed love for the quarterback a few days ago when he said that "he is going to be an excellent quarterback in the NFL for a lot of years." Whether it ends working or not for the Texans is still to be seen, but the confidence can't be higher and the QB1 role is more than guaranteed for Mills next season with Kyle Allen as his backup in the Texans depth chart.

Looking at PFF projections for the 2022 campaign, Mills ranks as the fantasy QB26 with a total FP tally of 282 in 17 games started. That is just within a 15-FP distance of higher-ranked QBs (and much more expensive in terms of ADP) such as Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson. Putting together those projections and Mills' current ADP of around 170 (last-round pick in 12-team leagues with 15 roster spots), the QB would have the 20th-highest ROI with a mark above those of Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr, and on par with Russell Wilson. Of course, you can't compare those guys to the sophomore in terms of upside, but all of those three have ADPs lower than the 100th OVR pick compared to Mills' 170+ ADP. The Return On Investment is more than probably going to be solid with a chance for a mid-tier QB2 finish if things click for Mills and his development stays up.

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