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With the 2022 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to think about how various rookies are going to fit with their new teams.
The Jets used the 10th pick in the draft on Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson, taking him one spot before his college teammate, Chris Olave, was taken by the Saints.
Wilson joins a crowded receiving corps and an offense that ranked 20th in the NFL in passing yards last season. How will he perform in 2022?
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Garrett Wilson College Production
Wilson played three years at Ohio State, totaling 143 catches for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns over this time there, plus adding one rushing score.
His senior season saw Wilson catch 70 passes for 1,058 yards with 12 touchdowns. That result was especially impressive when you factor in how much talent was in this receiving corps. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 95 catches. Chris Olave had 65 and 13 touchdowns. Wilson was having to fight for opportunities.
Garrett Wilson's Measurables
Per MockDraftable, Wilson ranks in the 90th-percentile in the 40, but a lot of his other numbers don't stand out as much. His vertical jump is in the 57th percentile, while his broad jump is in the 65th percentile.
Still, that vertical is solid. It definitely beats out his former college teammate Olave's vertical, which ranked in the 12th percentile. As we'll talk about below, the game tape shows that Wilson can get up there, which makes me take this measurement with a grain of salt.
Wilson's speed will be useful at the NFL level. He's a pretty small receiver, with MockDraftable's numbers putting him 28th percentile in height and 11th in weight. I don't expect to see a ton of physical play in the short passing game from Wilson, for example, but he can make up for that by being a big-play receiver. Even with that said, the game tape shows that Wilson routinely plays bigger than his size, both in terms of verticality and physicality.
Wilson's Strengths and Weaknesses
There is, of course, the speed:
Wilson was a big-play guy in college. He was fifth in the Big Ten this past season in yards per reception and made a great adjustment in 2021 as he moved from being a slot guy to being an outside guy. What impressed me is that he was still able to maintain such a high YPR average even while his role changed. Wilson's versatile.
Another thing is that Wilson has made some really acrobatic catches in college:
I mean...he jumps so high to catch this ball that another Garrett Wilson could probably stand underneath him. Then he manages to bring the ball in cleanly despite the fact he ends up horizontal in the air and comes down on the head of the defender. It would have been so easy to lose concentration here and to have that ball pop out for the incompletion, but Wilson says "nope, I'm catching this one."
Look at a play like this. In some terrible weather conditions and with a defender in front of him, Wilson goes up and yanks this ball in. Fast forward to the 40-second mark of that video and just tell me how Wilson's catching this. The defender is draped on him. The ball isn't in a particularly great spot. Everything's probably slippery as can be. His body's out of alignment here. Yet it's another Wilson reception.
While I don't think Wilson has the size to see a lot of short-yardage targets now that he'll be routinely facing stronger defenses than he did in college, I do think he has the footwork to win one-on-one in short-yardage when needed:
I mean...he had a defender in tight coverage at the line and is able to stutter step so much that he creates an open space here. There's no reason Wilson should be open on this play. His talent and his footwork created the opening that leads to the score.
As for weaknesses, he had 10 drops over the last two seasons and I think it's fair to be concerned about how his frame holds up at the NFL level. Can he bulk up a little while maintaining his elusiveness?
His Fit With The Jets
So, how will Wilson fit with the Jets? A lot of that depends on how Zach Wilson progresses this year.
Wilson played in 13 games last season, completing 55.6% of his passes with nine touchdowns. Digging into some PlayerProfiler data for Wilson, we...don't find much that's encouraging. He was 31st among QBs in yards per attempt and 33rd in adjusted yards per attempt. He was 21st in air yards per attempt.
The one bright spot that makes me intrigued when it comes to Garrett Wilson was that Zach Wilson was 15th in deep ball completion percentage last year. Some of his struggles are probably the fault of the lackluster receiving unit he had, as he ranked 32nd in receiver target separation. His deep ball accuracy rating was actually fifth among receivers, and he was seventh in catchable deep ball pass rate.
So, Wilson theoretically is a great addition to the Jets, as he gives the team a good deep threat who can take advantage of Zach Wilson's arm. The truth is more complicated than that.
Zach Wilson will likely be under pressure a lot, limiting his ability to look for Wilson deep. Elijah Moore will be the main option for Wilson. Corey Davis will command targets, as will tight end C.J. Uzomah. At full strength, there are some decent options here, which means that Wilson, as a rookie, will probably take some time to earn a major share of the targets.
The good news is that he should be on the field plenty. In 11 personnel, do we really think Denzel Mims is going to push Wilson off the field? Or Jeff Smith?
Garrett Wilson Fantasy Football Outlook
So, what should we expect from Wilson in fantasy this year?
I love the talent but the landing spot isn't great when it comes to redraft leagues. The Wilson to Wilson connection might be great down the road, but will it have time to develop for the 2022 season?
For this reason, I'm considering Wilson to be an upside WR4/5 guy. There will be some good weeks, but Wilson's going to be tough to trust on a weekly basis. There are going to be at least a couple of games where Wilson has two catches for 21 yards. There's also going to be a game where he finishes with 145 yards and a touchdown. I like him better in best ball than in normal fantasy, but you could do worse as someone who you'll play during bye weeks in the second half of the season.
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