RADIO
With the 2022 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to think about how various rookies are going to fit with their new teams.
The Saints used the 11th pick in the draft on Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave, taking him just one pick after the Jets took his former college teammate, Garrett Wilson.
Olave joins a Saints team that is in flux, as the team's longtime quarterback and head coach departed the team in back-to-back years. So, what can we expect from Olave as a rookie?
Chris Olave College Production
Olave played four seasons at Ohio State. Over that time, he caught 175 passes for 2,702 yards and 35 touchdowns. His senior season saw the former Mission Hills star set career-high marks across the board, with 65 catches for 936 yards and 13 touchdowns.
While he never really put up monster yardage numbers—he finished second in the Big Ten in receiving yards in 2020, his only appearance in the top-five of the conference in that stat—he did finish as the Big Ten's fourth-leading touchdown receiver of all-time. His overall numbers also suffered from playing in a crowded offense, with Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba also commanding looks.
Chris Olave's Measurables
Per MockDraftable, Olave's measurables are...weird.
His speed is apparent, with a 4.39 40-yard dash that ranks in the 86th percentile. But his 32'' vertical jump is in just the 12th percentile.
Still, let's not let one bad measurement destroy him. While we often think that receivers need to be able to leap like a basketball player to be effective, that's not necessarily the case. Looking at combine data since 1999, productive receivers Jarvis Landry, Wes Welker, Harry Douglas, Jordy Nelson, and Cooper Kupp all had worse verticals than Olave. Sure, the list of players with a vertical jump under 32'' is full of forgettable names, but any list of measurables will be full of forgettable names.
And measurables also aren't everything. I don't recall watching Olave play in college and thinking "huh, he just isn't jumping high enough." For me, the positives of his 40-time and his 72nd percentile broad jump outweigh the poor vertical number.
Olave's Strengths and Weaknesses
Olave was a consistent producer at Ohio State. No, he didn't have a year where he just absolutely dominated, but he was putting up good numbers year after year.
One thing he really showed in college is that he's good at running routes. PFF gave out fake awards to the wide receivers in this class and awarded Olave "Best Route-Runner" because of his ability to properly run whatever route he needed to run.
Olave is able to create separation due to his ability to quickly cut:
He shows excellent control with his lower body and is able to make these quick moves that leave the defense off balance and opens up room for easy completions.
Olave was considered the "safe" receiver in this class. He might never be the best receiver in the NFL, but he has a high floor thanks to his route running and his speed.
As for weaknesses, his strength is a concern. Going back to his measurables, he's just 18th percentile in weight and 35th in height. Olave is going to have to figure out how to win at the line of scrimmage to get into his routes—if the defenders engage him early, will he be able to shake them off? And will he be able to stay on the field on most downs due, or will the Saints need to use a better blocker on rushing downs?
His Fit With The Saints
It'll be really interesting to see how the Saints use Olave.
New Orleans has Michael Thomas, who is one of the NFL's best receivers when healthy. But Thomas missed all of last season with an ankle injury and still isn't back to full strength:
Let's assume Thomas is healthy. Olave would line up opposite him, with Jarvis Landry in the slot. (This assumes Olave beats out Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith for snaps, which he definitely should, but it's not completely a given.)
Pete Carmichael has been the OC in New Orleans for 14 years. Even with Sean Payton gone, I think we can assume the team's offense will still look largely the same. And that means that not a lot of targets will go the third option.
Taking the weird 2020 and 2021 seasons out of the equation since Thomas was hurt, let's look at some data for where Saints receivers landed in terms of targets in recent years.
In 2019, Thomas led the NFL in targets with 185. The Saints' WR2, Ted Ginn Jr., was tied for 27th out of 32 WR2s in targets, while the WR3, Tre'Quan Smith, was 30th out of 32 WR3s.
In 2018, Thomas was seventh in targets with 147. WR2 Smith was last out of the No. 2 receivers, while Ginn was second-to-last.
Sure, part of that is Drew Brees zeroing in on Thomas and another part is the lack of talent at receiver, two things that are different now. And 2019 Jameis Winston was good about spreading the ball around, with his No. 2 target, Mike Evans, finishing third among No. 2 targets and his No. 3, Breshad Perriman, finishing ninth.
But still, the track record of the Saints and non-Thomas receivers in years where Thomas is healthy isn't great. And the Saints have quarterback question marks, which is never great for someone's value.
Chris Olave Fantasy Football Outlook
So, what should we expect from Olave in fantasy this year?
Our redraft rankings have him at WR78, sandwiched between Quintez Cephus and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That doesn't sound great, but it's a realistic outlook for Olave. The Saints offense will run through Alvin Kamara (if he's on the field), and a healthy Michael Thomas is the No. 1 receiver, while Jarvis Landry has been a target hog during his whole NFL career.
There's just not much room for Olave to get targets.
Now, he does have a lot of upside if Thomas isn't healthy, or if Kamara is suspended and the team ends up just letting Jameis rip some passes. But if things work in New Orleans the way that the Saints want them to work, Olave won't have a lot of fantasy value.
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