Is Trea Turner Still the Top Player in Fantasy?

May 25, 2022

Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Trea Turner was the top pick in fantasy baseball drafts but hasn't quite lived up to expectations early in 2022. Justin Dunbar explains why he is still a stud for fantasy baseball.

Not to sound like Captain Obvious, but it is safe to say that baseball is a very interesting game with a lot of complex intricacies. After all, it is predicated on failure, with even the top hitters getting out more than they reach base, which differs greatly from other sports, where success is a bit more imminent.

Think about that; players' livelihoods are tied to a game where they are expected to succeed. Yet, whether you're a player, team staff member, a just a general spectator, it can be very difficult to remember this. After all, the concept of being able to make contact with an upper-90s MPH fastball, let alone hit it a considerable distance, is not a common ability, and that's not even taking into account the other innate skills in baseball that are extremely marvelous.

Wait, what does this have to do with today's topic? Well, when you're seen as a superstar, expectations can be ridiculously high, to the point where they are nearly impossible to match. In a lot of ways, this appears to be what Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner has fallen into this year. In a contract year playing for a big-market team coming off a high-end season, consensus opinions of him have risen to the point where even a very productive season doesn't feel like enough. Will those lofty expectations be met? Let's take a closer look! You can also read about other in-depth player breakdowns in this "Still A Stud?" series.

Trea Turner: Not Your Typical Player In This Era

When you think of an absolute speedster, baseball is not the sport you would expect them to play. Whereas in football, undersized speedsters tend to get valued higher for their athletic ability, the lack of size is generally seen as a greater issue in baseball, mainly due to concerns about power potential.

In an exceptional 2017 story by Lindsay Berra of MLB.Com, Turner stated that he was cut from his high school's travel team as a freshman, and he ultimately only had two college scholarships (Florida Atlantic University, NC State) coming out of college. As a high schooler, he was only rated as Perfect Game's 500th national overall prospect, as well as the 87th overall prospect in Florida. As such, he wasn't as coveted of a player coming out of high school as you'd expect, though that changed greatly from the moment he stepped foot at NC State.

As a freshman, Turner posted a .336/.432/.460 slash line, walking (13% BB) more than he struck out (12% K). To do that as a freshman is remarkably impressive, and the hope was that more power could soon follow. Fortunately, it's common for hitters who demonstrate plate skills early to grow into extra power, and that's what happened with Turner. Simply put, his college numbers were off the charts:

• Freshman: .336/.432/.460 (.124 isolated power/ISO), 13% BB, 12% K
• Sophomore: .368/.455/.553 (.185 ISO), 13.8% BB, 11.2% K
• Junior: .321/.418/.516 (.195 ISO), 14.4% BB, 9.7% K

Simply put, those plate discipline skills were exceptional. Although MLB Pipeline had Turner as the 14th overall prospect, there will still concerns about his offensive skillset:

"With his wheels and his ability to make contact and control the strike zone, Turner has the tools to become a quality leadoff hitter. The key will be toning down his swing, which can get long, and his approach, which can get a little out of control. Turner can get homer conscious, and he would be best served by focusing on getting on base, where his speed and instincts make him a prime basestealing threat."

While it isn't insinuated that Turner wasn't seen as someone who could produce strong power numbers, there certainly was the thought that, in trying to tap into more power, he was actually hampering his offensive skillset. With only a 35-power grade, he was generally envisioned as someone who could make a lot of contact with exceptional speed, which would be more than enough at shortstop. Based on some of the power he displayed in college, though, should that aspect of his game be written off due to some concerns about his size? As it turns out, certainly not.

Before Turner could even prove himself after being selected 13th overall in the 2014 draft by the Padres, he was traded to the Nationals that offseason in a three-way transaction headlined by Wil Myers going to San Diego. The strangest part? Since, at the time, a player could not be traded less than a year after being drafted, Turner had to remain a member of the Padres, even playing minor-league games for them, before his inclusion in the deal could be official. Talk about a strange set of circumstances!

Ironically, as a technical member of the Padres in 2015, he posted a 141 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) in Double-A, likely making them regret that trade. He then continued to perform at an above-average clip with the Nationals in Triple-A, even making his MLB debut. After continuing to flourish with a 146 wRC+ in Triple-A in 2016, he was finally called up to the big leagues for good by June.

Prior to 2016, Turner was considered the #9 overall prospect by Baseball America and #11 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline. That being said, there were many concerns to be had, as MLB Pipeline highlighted:

"He's cleaned up his hitting mechanics since turning pro and now drives the ball across the field with more consistency, though he's still unlikely to ever offer much in terms of over-the-fence power. Turner has some natural swing-and-miss and his approach can be too aggressive at times, but he has maintained selectivity despite a quick ascent through the Minor Leagues, which, when bundled with his speed, highlights his potential as a dynamic top-of-the-order hitter. "

With it unclear how much power he'd offer, Turner's 19.4% strikeout rate in the minors between 2015 and 2016 was a bit high, as most of his underlying production was tied to him utilizing his speed both in terms of running a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and having a lot of non-home run extra base-hits.

With a .225 ISO and 13 home runs in 324 MLB plate appearances in 2016, those concerns started to be addressed. Between 2017 and 2018, Turner solidified himself as an above-average hitter (105 wRC+), but there still wasn't a lot of power (5.3% barrel, .153 ISO) to be overly excited about, and it was fair to wonder if that extra level to his skillset was coming. While the power started to show (.200 ISO) in 2019, this also came in the infamous juiced-ball year. On the bright side, a lot of his gains came from simply hitting the ball harder, which can be tied to him gearing for more power (career-high 10.2% swinging-strike rate), but it was still clear what to expect.

Then, came the shortened 2020 season, where Turner posted a 9.8% barrel rate, .253 ISO, and a 158 wRC+. Simply put, those are elite numbers, and it was easy to see the case that Turner had blossomed into a premier superstar. Remember, this is a player who, from a real-life perspective, was already an above-average offensive producer with high-end base-running and defense at shortstop. Meanwhile, his popularity also was at a very high level due to his value in fantasy baseball, where his ability to post around a .300 batting average while being at the top of the league made him one of the premier contributors. While these two valuations obviously differ greatly, the further growth in his offensive skill set was the clear potential icing on the cake, making him a must-watch player heading into 2021. As it turns out, that excitement was warranted.

Trea Turner's Elite 2021 Season

As much as we'd like to have actionable takeaways from the 2020 season, a 60-game sample is very small. Immediately, in 2021, it became clear that there were plenty of statistical outliers from 2020 in both directions, which made player analysis as difficult as ever.

Luckily, Turner's case is much more simple- he essentially picked up right where he left off in 2020. In 646 plate appearances, he posted a 142 wRC+, .328/.375/.536 slash line, showcasing the most power (.208 ISO) he had demonstrated in a full season. From a real-life standpoint, he was the third-most valuable player in baseball based on Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). Meanwhile, per Fangraphs 5x5 values, he was the most valuable player in all of fantasy baseball. Regardless of where your focus is, he was an absolute superstar.

With a season-plus with elite production, there were plenty of reasons to believe that Turner had taken his performance to another level. Still, what changed? Really, there are a lot of factors to consider here. Of course, it helps when you barrel the ball up more (7.8%) and hit the ball harder (44.5% hard-hit rate), which is precisely what Turner did.

Now, why did this happen? There isn't a clear linear reason, though it is worth noting that power has been shown to develop at any time of a player's peak. What is interesting to note, though, is the slight shift in approach through the years:

That is quite the jump in aggressiveness starting in 2020. What is even more unique, though, is that this spike mainly came in one situation: on the first pitch.

That's a double-digit increase in terms of in-zone swing rate on 0-0 counts in 2021, which is quite a large jump. It is common for low-power, high-contact hitters to be a bit more passive at the plate, knowing that they have the contact skills to produce when behind in the count. That being said, this type of approach can traditionally come at the expense of power production. Between 2019 and 2021, Turner seemed to be gearing for power slightly more with an increased swinging-strike rate (10%), and the best way to do this is to attack favorable pitches early in the count, helping lead to fewer strikeouts and better quality of contact, especially when most of the gains of his aggressiveness were in the zone.

Altogether, this aggressiveness may have played a role in the lowest strikeout rate (17%) of his career for a full season, as well as the improved quality of contact, leading to a higher batting average, which, in turn, led to him getting on base at a similar to a slightly better rate, even with fewer walks (6.3%). By all accounts, 2021 seemed to be the breaking point of Turner's final ascension into a player without a clear flaw, and he was setting himself up nicely for a major free-agent contract following the 2022 season. Speaking of which....

Trea Turner's Interesting Start To 2022

Coming into this season, expectations were massive for Turner overall. After all, the Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline, likely envisioning him replacing Corey Seager for at least this season, and he's coming off of a season where he was right in the thick of the NL MVP race. Meanwhile, he was the consensus #1 overall pick in fantasy baseball drafts, and there was little reason to believe he wouldn't continue to be the dominant force he was.

On one end, Turner's slash line (.298/.352/.409) has come down, particularly his power (.119 ISO). At the same time, when you consider the current run-scoring environment, that is still good for a 120 wRC+. Yet, this is still a drop-off from where he was at last season; he's not in the top-10 in shortstop fWAR currently and is only the 20th-most valuable hitter from a fantasy perspective, per Fangraphs. When you consider the massive projections he had coming into the season, it's going to take a repeat of last year to satisfy those, which is a nearly impossible task, though still something he is perfectly capable of.

Really, it's hard to find any area to be concerned about Turner. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (94.2 MPH) is higher than it was last year, while he is hitting the ball 95 MPH or harder on 53.2% of his batted balls. It hasn't quite led to a lofty barrel rate (6.3%), but with a career-high 8.6% solid contact rate, his quality of contact is as strong as it was last year, if not better.

For context, entering Monday, Turner had a 13.7% expected home run/fly ball rate compared to a 5.4% home run/fly ball rate, which is roughly where it was last season (13.2%). It's only a matter of time before he hits for considerably more power, while his elite quality of contact and speed will lead to high BABIPs. Sure, his whiff rate is up (26.7%), but he also hasn't been seeing many pitches in the zone (44.6%), while his contact rate outside the zone (49.5%) is still notably lower than his career norms. As these numbers come back to baseline expectations, we should see Turner hover around a 17.5% strikeout rate, which sets him up to be the same 140 wRC+ producer he was last year.

In terms of his fantasy value, Turner is still stealing plenty of bases (eight), can produce a .300 batting average at a time when the league-wide batting average is below .240 and is hitting third for what is generally seen as the best lineup in all of baseball. THE BAT X projects him as the most-valuable fantasy producer the rest of the way, and there isn't any reason to expect that not be the case. Simply put, he's practically the same player that you could have hoped for coming into the season. While we are always trying to find a story, sometimes the real story is that there isn't a story.

Overview

At a time when speed and plate skills have been de-emphasized in terms of valuation, Trea Turner is a rare breed in Major League Baseball. Consistently cast aside due to his perceived lack of power, he has truly become an all-around talent and is certainly setting himself up for a very lofty free-agent contract.

How will his skill set age as he gets into his 30s? This is a very fair question. For the time being, though, he remains an elite player, and in fantasy baseball land, the #1 player overall. It's astonishing that a 120 wRC+ could somehow feel underwhelming, but that is the world of carrying such high expectations.

It's always exciting to see players consistently evolve, and with many of his approach changes from 2021 carrying over to this season, that has been the case with Turner. There is so much information and coaching available for hitters to optimize all of their true talent, and it leads to a more entertaining product with players performing at their best. There are a few players more fun to watch than Turner, and as he proceeds to go on the inevitable tear of elite production, it's going to only get more fun for him this season!

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