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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/1/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We had a better day yesterday, going 1-1 on our plays. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Sunday, May 1, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 14-15-1, -5.44 units
- Sides: 12-9, -0.66 units
- Totals: 2-6-1, -4.78 units
- Notes: The Rockies were able to take care of business, the Padres fell apart late. After scoring two runs in the top of the eighth to take a two-run lead, reliever Steven Wilson gave those two runs back to Pittsburgh, who eventually won in the bottom of the 10th. It's just bad luck, but it continues to be frustrating. Sunday's here, though, so let's close out the weekend with some wins and come back Wednesday.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIL -215
CHC: Marcus Stroman | MIL: Corbin Burnes
There are some pretty large money lines today, and my model data doesn't really love any run lines or game totals, so today I'll be looking at some "NRFIs." I'll start in Milwaukee, where Marcus Stroman and Corbin Burnes go head-to-head in a mid-afternoon battle. Stroman has allowed four runs in the first inning across four starts this season, all in one start against Tampa Bay on April 20th. Considering Stroman allowed all four of those runs against the Rays, he obviously didn't allow a first-inning run against the Brewers back on April 10th.
On the other side of the matchup, Corbin Burnes takes the mound. Burnes hasn't allowed a first-inning run all season, including his Opening Day start against the Cubs on April 7th. The Cubs have cashed NRFIs in 12 of their 21 games this year, but three of them when Stroman is on the mound.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -135, good for 57.45% implied odds. With these two starters on the mound, the implied odds of 61.05%. We're getting really solid value here, with two good pitchers against two below-average offenses. I'll be taking more NRFIs as we go along this year, now that I have more data on them. We're getting really good value on this play, and there's another one to come.
Pick: NRFI (-135) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYM -188
PHI: Zach Eflin | NYM: Max Scherzer
I'll head to the Sunday Night Baseball game for our second NRFI of the day. The Phils will send Zach Eflin to the hill tonight. In four starts, Eflin has allowed just two first-inning runs, both of which he allowed against Miami on April 15th. Eflin hasn't pitched against the Mets yet this season, but he didn't allow a first-inning run against them in either of his starts back in 2021. He's been pitching well and seemingly improving since that Miami start, so I believe he can get through the first clean today.
Max Scherzer will take the ball for the Mets. Scherzer has been impressive this season, coming into this one 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Not only have the Mets won each of Scherzer's starts this season, but he also hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of them. This includes the start against the Phillies on April 13th. He's made four starts against the Phillies since the beginning of 2021, without allowing a run in the first in any of them.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI here at -145, good for 59.18% implied odds. The Phillies have hit the NRFI in six of nine away games, six of their last 10, and 14 of 22 overall. On the other side, the Mets have hit the NRFI in six of nine home games, eight of their last 10, and 17 of 22 overall games. With these two pitchers on the mound, my numbers give the NRFI a whopping 67.26% chance of hitting. We have great value here, so I'll be taking it. Especially considering I'm a Phillies fan and I can't see them winning this one tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-145) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! See you on Thursday!
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