Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 6

Dan analyzes 6 pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are surging for Week 11. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks for Chris Paddack, Edward Cabrera, and others.

As this series continues (the readers demand it!) I have decided to play with the format weekly to keep things fresh.

The same basic premise applies each week. I try to determine whether or not each pitcher from our group is set up for sustainable success or heading towards the inevitable regression monster.

This week, I am expanding things to feature six pitchers. But I will stack up two pitchers rostered in roughly the same percentage of leagues to see which one may have the best outlook going forward. Which pitcher should you invest in via trade or pick up off the wire for the rest of the season? I'll draw some conclusions about each pitching duo.

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The Red Flag Statistics

I thought it might be helpful for us to look at this set of stats for the entire group of pitchers, all in one spot. I call these the "red flag stats" because they are some of the first ones I examine when figuring out why a pitcher's surface-level stats (such as ERA) may differ from their other ERA-indicators.

• BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play
• LOB%: Left On Base Percentage (also known as "strand rate.") This is a percentage of runners who got on base against a pitcher, but did not score.
• HR/FB: The percentage of fly balls that were also home runs given up by a pitcher
• K-BB%: A pitcher's strikeout rate minus their walk rate - the bigger the number, the better.
• Hard%: The percentage of batted balls that were hit "hard" by opposing hitters.

There is plenty of red on the chart this week, but not enough to disqualify someone just at first glance. We have to dig a bit deeper on these pitchers, and remember, it will be Player A vs. Player B this week.

Ranger Suarez vs. Ryan Pepiot

Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies (77% rostered)

2025 Fantasy Stats: 36.1 IP, 4 W, 33 K, 2.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.59 SIERA, 2.34 xERA, 21.9% K%, 54.7% GB%, 97 Stuff+

After missing all of March and April, Suarez returned to the Philly rotation on May 4 and promptly gave up seven earned runs on seven hits to the Diamondbacks. But since then, the veteran groundballer has made five outstanding starts, blanking opponents in three of those starts while going six or more innings in all of them.

Ranger Suárez, Nasty 81mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/HvJ7VTlRHv

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2025

Suarez is doing what he does best - limiting hard contact while getting hitters to put the ball on the ground. He doesn't hurt himself with walks and does a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. He's allowed just one long ball so far this year, and while his HR/FB is bound to regress a bit from his extremely low 2.9%, his batted ball results still show that hitters are rarely squaring him up.

A barrel rate of under 1% will do wonders for preventing home runs, and you can see from his percentile ranks that his 26.2% hard-hit rate is in the 98th % percentile. He's throwing mainly five pitches (not counting the slider) and no pitch more than 26% of the time. He leads with the sinker to hitters from both sides of the plate and uses his changeup, cutter, and curveball to give right-handers three different looks at three different speeds.

As you can see in his movement profile, Suarez's game is all about vertical movement, with everything breaking down in the zone. That is what helps him generate so many ground balls and such weak contact overall.

His 22% K% is right around where he's been the last two seasons, and strikeouts have never been where his value lies. When he's at his best, he's eating innings and piling up wins while providing solid ratios. With the only real red flag being some potential home run regression, there's no reason to think he can't keep doing what he's been doing for the rest of the season.

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays (79% rostered)

2025 Fantasy Stats: 76 IP, 3 W, 64 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 4.19 SIERA, 4.35 xERA, 19.9% K%, 37.3% GB%, 107 Stuff+

In case you are unaware, Ryan Pepiot is a pitcher I touted before the season began as someone who could emerge as an ace. His surface numbers look good, and no one can argue against his consistency. Last night, he delivered another quality start (his ninth on the year) for the Rays with six strong innings.

The Rays don’t win without the effort of Ryan Pepiot tonight…

6 IP
3 H
2 ER
2 BB
8 K

That’s 6 straight quality starts for him. pic.twitter.com/dBB7w6judJ

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) June 6, 2025

He struck out eight Rangers, tying his season-high output in strikeouts in a game, but it raised his strikeout rate to just 19.9%. He finished with a 26% K% last season, and those strikeouts are what many of us were chasing when we drafted him.

It would be lazy analysis to say "look at all the red (good) for Suarez and all the blue (bad) for Pepiot," but we are all suckers for color-coded graphs and charts. But one would expect to see a more favorable set of sliders for a pitcher who has been as seemingly effective as Pepiot this season.

One of the reasons I was so high on Pepiot was that he has a tremendous four-seam fastball. He throws around 95 mph, but he throws from a high arm slot and has some of the best induced vertical break on his four-seamed, with an average of 19.5 inches of induced vertical break.

His changeup is his second-best pitch, which pairs well with his four-seamer. However, I think his slider (and the lack of a fourth reliable pitch) are my primary issues with his arsenal.

He's throwing his slider 23% of the time, but it's not getting very good results. The pitch has just a 21.3% whiff rate and is getting hit hard with a .500 SLG allowed. It's a hard slider at 89 mph and moves less vertically than most sliders. There's not a lot of velocity difference here, and there's not much variation in the movement of his three main pitches (see the movement chart).

The bottom half of the movement chart is nearly empty, and I think a useful experiment for Pepiot would be to throw more curveballs and fewer sliders. His cutter has been a pretty good pitch based on batted ball metrics, too, so mixing it in more often and throwing fewer fastballs (that get hit very hard by hitters) could help him be a bit less predictable.

Verdict: I'll admit that I was very high on Pepiot this season, coming in as a potential breakout. I thought he had ace-level upside, and I guess I am being picky, but I expected more strikeouts based on what he'd shown in his first three seasons. He might be boring, but I think I'll side with Suarez here as I think he's a safer option for your ratios and he's on a better team with a chance at more wins (hopefully they can fix that bullpen!) Pepiot is still a quality option if you have him, but I don't see the same ceiling that I did before, and his batted ball metrics suggest he could still see regression on his ERA.

Taj Bradley vs. Clarke Schmidt

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays (60% rostered)

2025 Fantasy Stats: 70.2 IP, 4 W, 64 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 4.05 SIERA, 3.23 xERA, 22% K%, 48.5% GB%, 99 Stuff+

It was a pretty disappointing start to the season for Taj Bradley based on expectations until recently, but he's turned things around over his last three starts.

• First nine starts: 50.2 IP, 4.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 41 K
• Last three starts: 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 23 K

The most recent version of Bradley is what we signed up for! But can we count on him having turned a corner, or will he continue to be inconsistent the rest of the season?

Taj Bradley was lights out today!

7 IP 3 H 0 ER 0 BB 10 K
18 whiffs (8 on 4SFB)
29 CSW%

He now has 4 QS in his last 5 outings👀
pic.twitter.com/82GKSfZJBq

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) June 2, 2025

Nothing jumps off the page regarding red flags other than a fairly low BABIP of .262. I'm struggling, however, to understand how his strikeouts evaporated for a four-game stretch and then suddenly returned lately. The SwStr% on the season is a very average mark of 10.6%, which can sustain his current 22% but doesn't indicate that he should be whiffing more hitters as he has in years past.

His control has been much better lately as he's cut down the walks, and with that also comes more precise location of his pitches in and around the zone. Lately, he's upped his four-seam usage and is throwing his splitter less often. He's also throwing more curveballs, which is a good thing as it's his best pitch in terms of swings and misses and batted ball results.

His arsenal reminds me a lot of Nathan Eovaldi, but with more velocity. Eovaldi's splitter is better, while Bradley has a much better fastball, but both have an over-the-top delivery and feature a hard-breaking 12-6 curveball that pairs well with the fastball/cutter/splitter mix.

We know he has the type of stuff to be very good, but we keep waiting for him to do it consistently. The batted ball data is pretty promising, and I'd probably be willing to sacrifice the strikeouts if we saw a more consistent baseline from Bradley every time out. The upside that he has flashed, though, keeps us coming back for more.

Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees (55% rostered)

2025 Fantasy Stats: 49 IP, 2 W, 50 K, 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 4.04 SIERA, 3.06 xERA, 24.5% K%, 36.4% GB%, 101 Stuff+

Clarke Schmidt had another funky start against the Guardians on Wednesday night. He's struggled against them now twice while pitching pretty well in his other seven starts. He did notch eight strikeouts and continues to be an above-average strikeout arm, but he also surrendered three runs on seven hits and gave up a home run to switch-hitter Angel Martinez.

Clarke Schmidt 2025 platoon splits:

RHB .231/.274/.308 .582 OPS
LHB .218/.340/.449 .789 OPS

Career numbers are even more pronounced

Guardians only have one right handed bat in the lineup tonight. These are tough nights for Clarke with his pitch mix.

— Steve (@Srechter7) June 4, 2025

Clarke's splits against lefties are indeed pretty significant. Over his career, his WHIP is a half point higher, and his FIP jumps a full run. Schmidt leads with his cutter 45% of the time and follows that up with an excellent curveball. But he doesn't throw his sweeper or sinker to lefties, so there's nothing to keep them honest on the outside of the plate.

Despite having slightly pink flags across the board on our chart, nothing stands out as overly concerning. His issues with lefties and the lack of groundballs could continue to add up to an ERA over 4.00, but I think he's going to be serviceable as a depth option and can still provide some decent strikeout numbers while also stacking up some wins for a top-tier Yankees team.

Verdict: Both pitchers have their warts, but I have to go with the upside Bradley provides with his strikeout ability. The team context is better for Schmidt, and both guys are pitching in bad ballparks, but Bradley has a better groundball rate and slightly better batted ball results. Schmidt's ceiling isn't as high as Bradley's, though he is still a very serviceable option in the back end of your rotation.

Chris Paddack vs. Edward Cabrera

Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins (25% rostered)

2025 Fantasy Stats: 65.1 IP, 2 W, 50 K, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 4.39 SIERA, 4.02 xERA, 18.7% K%, 38.7% GB%, 95 Stuff+

I don't love relying on pitcher-to-pitcher comparisons. Still, since he's already been discussed in the article, I'll start by saying that Paddack is a very similar pitcher to Pepiot in terms of his arsenal. Like Pepiot, Paddack has some very respectable surface stats with some contact metrics that cause me some concern about his ability to sustain his early-season success.

Paddack started the year by getting blasted for nine earned runs by the White Sox in his first start. Then he only lasted four innings against the Astros, allowing four more earned runs. Since then, he's been pretty darn effective.

Chris Paddack has been fantastic across his last 10 starts:

58 IP, 14 ER, 14 BB, 46 K

Can’t buy run support as of late, but a remarkable turnaround for a guy who began the year fighting to hold onto a spot in the #MNTwins rotation.

pic.twitter.com/Zjfg79jfd3

— Hunter Shelton (@HunterShelton_) June 1, 2025

Paddack, like Pepiot, relies on elite IVB on his four-seamer to create rising action. It helps his 93 mph fastball play up and seem more like 96 mph to hitters. But Pepiot can pump his fastball at 96 mph, which seems more like 99 mph to hitters. Paddack also throws his four-seamer more often - 50% of the time, despite it not grading out as a great pitch.

He's been pretty lucky that his fastball hasn't been hit harder. He's allowing a .226 BA and .296 SLG on the pitch, but the expected stats are .265 xBA and .429 xSLG. His changeup doesn't have the same type of vertical drop that Pepiot's does, and his slider has less horizontal movement. So the changeup and slider both grade out as slightly below-average pitches, and Paddack relies on a curveball 12% of the time to keep hitters honest (something I mentioned earlier that Pepiot should consider doing).

There are too many red flags in his profile that suggest regression. The BABIP isn't sustainable, and the hard contact rate is a full 10 points higher than league average. I think it's only a matter of time until Paddack falls off and sees his ERA jump back into the mid-4.00 range. Without more strikeouts to entice us, he doesn't stand out as more than just a streaming option for me at this point.

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins (24% rostered)

2025 Fantasy Stats: 45.2 IP, 2 W, 48 K, 4.14 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.90 SIERA, 4.04 xERA, 24.4% K%, 41.9% GB%, 106 Stuff+

I know we have been here before, and it hasn't ended well, but Cabrera's recent success has forced my hand, and I think it would be unwise to dismiss him based on how often we have been burned before. Cabrera is still just 27 years old, and even though he's in his fifth MLB season, he's still trying to figure out how to harness his stuff.

Cabrera didn't make his first start until April 11 after dealing with a blister on his middle finger coming out of spring training. For his first four starts, it seemed like more disappointment was coming in 2025, but his last five starts have been impressive. Check out the difference in the results.

• First four starts: 18.2 IP, 7.23 ERA, 12.2% BB%, 1.77 WHIP
• Last five starts: 27 IP, 2.00 ERA, 7.5% BB%, 1.19 WHIP

That's a pretty stark contrast, and the pitcher who has taken the mound in May is one that we should be considering for fantasy baseball.

Edward Cabrera, Filthy 94mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/eBdPs49qFK

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2025

Cabrera's long been known for having one of the nastiest (and fastest) "changeups" in baseball. But he's also been known for his lack of control with a career 12.8% walk rate. He throws everything harder than many pitchers, with an average velocity of 96 mph on his sinker and four-seamer, 93 mph on his changeup, 88 mph on his slider, and 83 mph on his curveball. And his velocity hasn't changed this season from last year. However, he has tweaked a few things, leading to more reliable results.

The first major change is that Cabrera dropped his arm slot from 42 to 36 degrees. That lower arm slot is creating more horizontal movement on all of his pitches.

The other major change here is to his pitch mix. As you can see, he's dropped his four-seamer usage drastically and is throwing his sinker as his primary pitch, along with his dynamite changeup. But he no longer has to lead with the changeup, and by throwing it less often, it makes it even more effective. The sinker isn't a pitch to generate whiffs, but it is a pitch that he can reliably throw for strikes. To simplify things, more sinkers and fewer fastballs and changeups have led to better control and fewer walks.

As far as our red flags go, there's still quite a bit of hard contact allowed, but that will come with the territory when you throw as hard as Cabrera does. We need to see Cabrera continue the improved control and varied pitch mix a bit longer, but in the meantime, he's an intriguing pickup off waivers based on the potential he has flashed.

Verdict: Paddack's stats look better now, and the team context is admittedly better with the Twins being playoff contenders and the Marlins being terrible, however, I prefer the upside of Cabrera based on his strikeout upside and superior stuff. Both pitchers could be ticking time bombs, but I think the changes that Cabrera has made may finally lead to more consistency from him.

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