Are You For Real? Analyzing 4 Surprising Fantasy Baseball Breakouts From Mickey Moniak, Casey Schmitt, Wenceel Perez, Dominic Canzone

Thunder Dan analyzes 4 hot fantasy baseball hitters to consider adding in Week 13, 2025. These deep sleeper hitters could emerge as deeper fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 13, or could just be mirages.

This week, I wanted to take our very popular "Are You For Real" series, penned by Elliot Baas, and try out the same concept with some lightly-rostered hitters who have been hot.

If you have ever caught Elliot's weekly piece, he examines three pitchers who posted surprisingly strong starts and tries to see if there's a larger trend at work where a player could be trending up and worthy of a pickup for fantasy purposes.

So today I will be looking at four hitters who have been hot lately with the goal of figuring out whether their recent strong performances are fluky or a sign of possible sustainable production. All toster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 25.

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Mickey Moniak, OF, Colorado Rockies – 10% Rostered

The Streak (Last 14 Days): .375 AVG, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, 1 SB

"Are you for real?" feels like a question we have been asking about Moniak for the last nine years since he was drafted first overall in 2016 by the Philadelphia Phillies. Moniak is now on his third MLB team after failing to do anything in Philadelphia and then stalling out in Los Angeles as a member of the Angels for the last two and a half seasons.

To be fair, he showed some signs of promise during his time in L.A. He hit 14 home runs in 2023 and again in 2024. But he continues struggling with high strikeout rates, walks rarely, and averages just seven steals per season.

Mickey Moniak go-ahead blast! pic.twitter.com/J2fDK2q0lU

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 22, 2025

But does Moniak have a new life as a member of the Rockies in 2025? With 11 home runs in 192 at-bats, he's on pace to crush his previous career high in homers, while hitting a respectable .245 and slugging .500.

One of the big keys to his success this season has been cutting down on the strikeouts. He's still whiffing 24.6% of the time, but that's a considerable improvement when compared to his 30.9% career K%.

We know Colorado is an elite hitting environment, and the best months for production are still ahead of us, as warm days in Coors can yield some excellent offensive results. I wish the underlying numbers suggested he had more positive regression coming, but they don't. However, I think his overall season numbers are viable and that if he continues to make contact more often, he will keep getting better results.

Verdict: Moniak is hot right now and a former top prospect who has always had talent. He's getting an opportunity to hit in the upper third of the lineup lately and has a positive home park factor working in his favor. I have my expectations tempered as he's let us down many times before, but I think he's worthy of an add if you need more outfield depth or power production from your outfielders.

Casey Schmitt, 1B/2B/3B/SS, San Francisco Giants – 22% Rostered

The Streak (Last 16 Days): .400 AVG, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB

Schmitt is 26 years old and in his third MLB season with the Giants. He appeared in 90 games in 2023 and then just 40 games last season. Schmitt hit just .206 in his rookie campaign across 277 at-bats but was better last year, slashing .252/.283/.477. Still, it wasn't much to write home about, and he entered this season as a part-time player and utility man. He also missed a month of action in late April and early May due to an oblique injury.

Schmitt got an opportunity to play every day at third base when Matt Chapman went on the IL earlier this month. He's taken advantage of it in a big way, and with how he has hit, he's making a case to possibly stay in the lineup by sliding over to second base when Chapman returns.

Hot sheet #6: Casey Schmitt last 15 days: 17-for-41 (.415), w/ 4 HR, 12 RBI, 5 BB, 1 2B… pic.twitter.com/fMCzzJzJ1S

— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) June 24, 2025

Schmitt's power surge will likely not last over a larger sample of at-bats, but he is hitting the ball hard and with an ideal launch angle for barrels and long balls. The batted ball data is very promising here, and it's also good to see that he's improved his plate discipline a bit, too, upping his walk rate to 9%.

Schmitt is eligible at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B on Yahoo! He's been a popular pickup this week already, with his rostership rising rapidly.

Verdict: Schmitt has made some significant improvements at the plate and could be looking at a full-time spot in the lineup at second base even after Chapman returns. I think he's a great pick-up in any format with his multi-position eligibility and some very positive team context - hitting in a powerful Giants lineup.

Wenceel Perez, OF, Detroit Tigers – 5% Rostered

The Streak (Last 7 Games): .345 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 7 R, 1 SB

This is the guy who popped for me when digging into his numbers this year. The Tigers have an embarrassment of riches right now in terms of how many quality hitters they have on this team. I understand that the outfield and DH positions are already crowded, but Perez should be an everyday player for this team based on how he's hitting the baseball. There's no question in my mind.

Wenceel Perez might be the most underrated player in baseball🤷‍♂️

(🎥:@tigers)
pic.twitter.com/pngzFB1ypx

— SleeperTigers (@SleeperTigers) June 25, 2025

Perez has sat out just once over Detroit's last 10 games, which makes sense based on his performance. The 25-year-old switch-hitter has made a huge impact for this team since being activated at the end of May. He's hitting both lefties and righties, something that Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows (both lefties with poor splits vs. lefties) can't do.

On the season, he has six home runs in just 82 at-bats. He's striking out just 19.5% of the time, and his expected stats all back up his current numbers as sustainable. He owns a massive 16.7% barrel rate and 45% hard contact rate as well as a .388 xwOBA.

It looks like a major breakout to me, and even if these numbers taper off a bit over a larger sample size, Perez is still in line to beat his production from last season across the board.

If playing time is the one issue we are worried about, then I am okay with that. I think the Tigers are going to find a way to get him in the lineup as often as possible, even with a crowded outfield. His ability to hit lefties as a switch-hitter will help him stay in the lineup more often, too.

Verdict: Perez has been mauling the baseball and is far too lightly rostered for my liking! I am not sure what's not to like about this hitter and his profile. The underlying stats look good, and the team context is positive, too. Jump on this potential breakout now before he gets picked up by other managers. If he has another hot week of hitting, he will be scooped up everywhere.

Dominic Canzone, OF, Seattle Mariners – 1% Rostered

The Streak (Last 14 Games): .279 AVG, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 1 SB

So with Canzone, we are counting the entire amount of time since he was called up from Triple-A as his "streak." He's been up since June 9, but has made just nine starts for Seattle, serving as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement in the other five games.

Canzone has done most of his damage in a two-game stretch earlier this week. He homered twice on Sunday in the Mariners' final game at Wrigley and then followed that up with another home run against Minnesota on Monday night.

Dominic Canzone also reaches the second deck here in Minnesota, for his third homer in the past two games.

Exit velo: 107.8 mph
Launch angle: 36°
Distance: 407 ft.
Hang time: 6.2 seconds pic.twitter.com/j8fucJqtRC

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) June 24, 2025

Canzone is now in his third MLB season, though he collected only 168 and 173 at-bats in the last two seasons, respectively. He continued to crush Triple-A pitching this season, hitting .296 with 13 home runs in 45 games, forcing the Mariners to bring him up again.

He had hit just .220 and .196 in his first two seasons at the big league level, so he's already off to a better start there and is striking out just 13% of the time. The BABIP is low at .242, and his xBA of .295 also helps to make the case that he's making some quality contact.

Canzone has a very high 28.6% HR/FB that will surely regress. He's not hitting a home run every 12 at-bats this season, but a 10.8% barrel% is a nice sign that he can square up the baseball and hit for some power.

Verdict: The biggest hurdle to fantasy viability is playing time. Canzone will sit against lefties and may only play four or five times a week. He's a guy to keep an eye on and possibly stream in good spots, but it's tough to make a case for him in anything but the deepest of formats. DFS players just don't forget about him when you're stacking Mariners; he's always cheap and has some nice pop in his bat.

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