Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results: Part 3

Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 9. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

It's now a trilogy. Our deep dive into hitters to see who's real and who isn't is on its third edition. The expected stats have gotten us here, all praise be to them! Seriously, they're so helpful.

At Week 9, there's still a lot of minutia to wade through. Buying into the hype early can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.

I will break down four hot hitters exceeding preseason expectations in this article. We will find out who's real and who isn't between Isaac Paredes, Eugenio Suarez, Jacob Wilson, and Zach Neto. Now, let's get into it.

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Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

2025 Stats: .867 OPS, 145 OPS+, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 29 R, 0 SB

It's some mighty big shoes that Paredes needed to fill as a part of the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason. The void left without Tucker in the lineup was a big one that Paredes has filled admirably. His 145 OPS+ is the highest of his career, giving the Astros the offensive boost they need without Tucker (and with Yordan Alvarez, who's been out with a hand strain for almost all of May).

Paredes leads the Astros with 11 HRs. That's by a pretty wide margin, too, as no other Astro has hit more than six bombs this season. His 16.4 percent HR/FB rate is reminiscent of his 2022 and 2023 seasons in Tampa Bay, where he hit 20 and 31 HRs, respectively. At his current pace, he's on track for another 30 HR season with Houston.

Owner of the Crawford Boxes. #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/sn3gxOJqmG

— Houston Astros (@astros) May 14, 2025

Paredes' plate approach is pretty similar to what he's been in years past without much deviation. His walk rate comes in at 12.7 percent, and his strikeout rate is at 15.4 percent. Both are better than his career marks (11.2 percent walk rate, 17.2 percent strikeout rate), but it's not a huge jump from his norms.

One major difference this season is his splits vs. lefties and righties. Normally, Paredes has hit lefties well, putting up a career .805 OPS against southpaws. But this season, that's dropped to a .467 OPS with a .100 BA. He's had nearly all of his success against righties, whom he's hit for a .912 OPS.

Where we start to see a gap in stats is when we look at his expected stats. He's posting up a .381 wOBA that's paired with a .343 xwOBA, pointing toward oncoming negative regression. Some of that can be explained by an increase in groundballs (35.4 percent from 30.5 percent last season) that's taking away from flyballs (41.6 percent vs. 45.8 percent last season).

The good news for Paredes is that his .343 xwOBA is still a career high by almost 30 points. It ranks in the 64th percentile, which is more than respectable. But it means he's less likely to stay in the elite company of CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll and instead drop to the more realistic likes of Brice Turang and Steven Kwan.

Pitchers have attacked the 26-year-old with a similar pitch mix to last season. He sees four-seam fastballs at a 27.5 percent rate, sinkers at a 21.6 percent rate, and sliders at a 19 percent rate. He hits four-seamers for a .430 wOBA that's paired with a .416 xwOBA. That small-ish bit of negative regression shouldn't affect him tremendously.

Paredes with a solo shot!#BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/POW8Pj6wgZ

— Houston Astros (@astros) May 20, 2025

Where he's more likely to start seeing negative regression hit is with sinkers. He currently hits them for a .420 wOBA, but it's paired with a .329 xwOBA. The biggest pitch he's benefiting from, thanks to luck, is the sinker. Sliders, on the other hand, have been a pitch he's been unlucky on. He hits them for a .226 wOBA, but that has a .308 xwOBA. That will help balance out the negative regression sinkers will give him, especially since he sees them at a similar rate.

The rest of the pitch mix Paredes sees has quite the splits between them. Sweepers (.520 wOBA, .291 xwOBA), cutters (.236 wOBA, .354 xwOBA), and changeups (.402 wOBA, .304 xwOBA) all show massive gaps in luck that go both ways. But with none of these pitches being seen more than 9 percent of the time, it's hard to say one will have a more helpful or detrimental effect than the other. When we talk about minutia to wade through, this is the perfect example.

Verdict: Paredes is a bit confounding in terms of where his stat line should be. The best way to approach it is to look at the full picture and see the nearly 40-point gap in expected stats and know that negative regression is going to taper him down some. I'd expect that when it hits, he ends with an OPS+ closer to 120 or 125 compared to the current 145 he's at right now. That's still decent fantasy value, so fantasy managers shouldn't get all that worried, just know a bit of a drop-off is coming soon.

Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks

2025 Stats: .831 OPS, 128 OPS+, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 34 R, 1 SB

The second D-back we've covered, Suarez, can be a very boom-or-bust type hitter for Arizona. He started the season by hitting five HRs in five games, then hit just one HR in his next 21 games before hitting four HRs in one game. Power will never be a question for the 33-year-old; it's consistency.

Suarez's 15 HRs are tied for the team lead alongside Corbin Carroll. That's being driven by a 21.7 percent HR/FB rate, reminiscent of his last few seasons in Cincinnati. It's not quite as high as his 29.5 percent rate he put up in 2019 when he hit 49 HRs, but it's a solid rate that easily puts him on track to finish with a HR total in the mid-to-high 30s.

Eugenio Suárez's 15th home run of year puts the @Dbacks up 3-0 💥 pic.twitter.com/ItW6Jn3uyc

— MLB (@MLB) May 27, 2025

One aspect of Suarez's game this season that's noticeably different from recent seasons is a big cutdown on his strikeout rate. After six straight seasons with a strikeout rate of 27.5 percent or higher, he has cut that down to 23.9 percent this year. He still has issues with chasing and whiffs, but more balls in play are a good thing given his barrel rate and hard-hit percentage, both of which rank in the 89th percentile or better.

From a batted ball perspective, Suarez has made a little bit more of a concerted effort to get some more balls in the air. He's seen his fly-ball percentage increase from 43.6 percent to 47.9 percent, almost all of which is taking away from groundballs. With the increase we're seeing in his HR/FB rate, that's a good thing.

FOUR AT-BATS
FOUR HOME RUNS

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, EUGENIO SUÁREZ 😤 pic.twitter.com/uSEW7kHUOB

— MLB (@MLB) April 27, 2025

As we start to dive into the expected stats, we can see that Suarez has some positive regression coming. His .355 wOBA is paired with a .376 xwOBA, which ranks in the 86th percentile. It's also worth noting that the 33-year-old has a .233 BABIP. With a career .299 BABIP, that means more balls in play should result in more good results for Suarez.

When it comes to specific pitches, Suarez sees four-seam fastballs the most. He's hitting those for a .427 wOBA with a .438 xwOBA. Not a giant gap, but positive regression nonetheless. Sinkers show more promise, though, as he's hitting them for a .358 wOBA with a .435 xwOBA. Given sinkers are the pitch he sees the second-most often at 16.1 percent, this is a huge opportunity for him.

Verdict: Too many signs are pointing toward positive regression for Suarez, and I can't ignore that. The 20-point gap from his wOBA and xwOBA may not even tell the whole story for just how much positive regression he may see, given his incredibly low BABIP. I would expect his 128 OPS+ to be closer to 145 or 150 after the positive regression hits.

Jacob Wilson, Athletics

2025 Stats: .888 OPS, 146 OPS+, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 28 R, 4 SB

Things have cooled down a bit in Sacramento after the Athletics' hot start, but Jacob Wilson has continued to cook at the plate. A good start in April, in which he hit for a .792 OPS, has continued in May with a 1.006 OPS. The 23-year-old is the only A's starter to be hitting above .300, and he's doing so at a .350 clip. He's been a bright spot for a franchise that's put itself in an awkward spot for the next few seasons.

Jacob Wilson's first career leadoff home run comes on the first pitch 💪 pic.twitter.com/2dwuszKsFL

— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2025

The first thing to point out with Wilson is his ridiculously low strikeout rate. It sits at 5.1 percent, the second lowest in the majors among qualified batters behind only Luis Arraez. That's paired with a whiff rate of 8.3 percent. The dude just doesn't strike out and will put plenty of balls in play.

His batted ball profile starts to show some worrying signs for the rest of the season. To start, he's got a 56.1 percent ground-ball rate. There are only three players who have a higher ground-ball rate (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Yelich, and Luis Rengifo), and none of them have an OPS+ above 100. You're not likely to be successful with an ultra-high ground-ball rate.

The next sign to consider is Wilson's .350 BABIP. As we pointed out with Suarez, you generally will see a .300 BABIP as normal, regardless of how effective a hitter is. With this pointing toward a 50-point drop, and so many balls being put in play by Wilson, we're likely to see a pretty hefty drop come for him soon.

Now, to look at the expected stats. With his .388 wOBA, he's also got a .332 xwOBA. That xwOBA would rank in the 49th percentile, which isn't bad! But it's a long way from his current .388 wOBA that's in the 93rd percentile.

Top @Athletics prospect Jacob Wilson delivers his first career #walkoff winner! pic.twitter.com/bDbF3Meoti

— MLB (@MLB) September 25, 2024

When it comes to pitch mix, Wilson is unsurprisingly looking at negative regression headed for him against the three pitches he sees the most: sinkers, four-seam fastballs, and sliders. Sinkers (.405 wOBA, .285 xwOBA) and sliders (.408 wOBA, .331 xwOBA)  see sharp drops, while four-seamers (.410 wOBA, .379 xwOBA) see less drastic drops.

Two pitches I wouldn't expect to change much for Wilson are cutters and changeups. He's gotten rather true results on these pitches while succeeding at a high level. He hits changeups for a .389 wOBA and a .389 xwOBA, so results there have been true. He hits cutters for a .521 wOBA and a .512 xwOBA. Though there's a small gap, it's still a pitch he crushes.

Pitchers are likely to incorporate sweepers more, especially if their luck continues on sinkers, four-seamers, and sliders. He hits sweepers for just a .168 wOBA that is paired with a .225 xwOBA. Even with positive regression headed for that pitch, a .225 wOBA is not what anyone is looking for.

Verdict: Wilson is a sell-high player, given that much of his success so far has had quite the benefit of luck. With such a high ground-ball rate, he has fewer chances of hitting homers. And with such a low hard-hit rate (27.4 percent, sixth percentile) and barrel rate (3.2 percent, 10th percentile), there's less of a chance that he will continue to beat the odds. Sell high to anyone willing to buy.

Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels

2025 Stats: .875 OPS, 143 OPS+, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 29 R, 8 SB

If you haven't been paying attention, Zach Neto has been making a lot more noise this season than just hitting first-pitch bombs off Tarik Skubal and arguing with him later. He's been tearing the cover off the ball after missing the start of the season while recovering from a shoulder injury.

First pitch ✅

First career leadoff home run ✅ pic.twitter.com/66DO5Veh3f

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) May 3, 2025

He's hit nine HRs in his 35 games coming into Tuesday night. That has him tied for third on the team with Mike Trout. This is driven by a pretty decent increase in his HR/FB rate. It was at 14.9 percent last season and is up to 22 percent this season.

That HR/FB rate increase is even better when looking at his batted ball profile. His fly-ball rate is up to 42.7 percent after being at 38.6 percent last season. That increase is a great thing to see. Even better is his decrease in groundballs. Last season, he had a 44.1 percent ground-ball rate, and this season it's dropped to 29.2 percent. It's helping to provide more results for the 24-year-old.

Neto has also seen his line drive rate increase from 17.3 percent to 28.1 percent. Tie this together with a hard-hit rate in the 88th percentile and a barrel rate in the 96th percentile, and it's easy to tell that Neto's seeing the ball well and hitting it even better.

One aspect of Neto's hard-hitting approach that's a result of trying to hit hard is his increased strikeout rate. It sits at 28.4 percent, an increase from 23.3 percent last season. That strikeout rate isn't generally a concern right now, given how well he's hitting the ball, but if he starts to see worse results, then the strikeout rate will need to come down, or else it will become a problem.

But we shouldn't expect that to happen quite yet. Neto's .375 wOBA is paired with a .399 xwOBA that ranks in the 93rd percentile. That bit of positive regression won't be dramatically game-changing, but it will help Neto stay producing at a level at least similar to what he is now.

Zach Neto's 8th blast of the season puts the @Angels back in front! pic.twitter.com/cImkTDQZKD

— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2025

Pitchers have mixed it up fairly well against Neto, and there's only one clear answer on which pitch is best to get him out with. That would be the curveball, which he sees 8.4 percent of the time. He hits it for a .257 wOBA and a .205 xwOBA. At a 50% whiff rate, it's the only pitch he struggles with.

He's seen sinkers the most with a 26.3 percent rate. He's hit those with a .362 wOBA and a .367 xwOBA, meaning the pitch he sees the most is getting true results. He sees four-seamers the second most at 18 percent. Pitchers will want to find a different way to approach him as he's hitting those for a .450 wOBA and a .519 xwOBA. That's where most of the positive regression we expect will come from.

Pitchers won't have luck trying to trick him with changeups, either. He's hitting those for a .600 wOBA and a .521 xwOBA. That's a bit of negative regression coming on that pitch, but a .521 xwOBA is still one hell of a floor.

The only sign of potential negative regression lies in his BABIP. It currently sits at .341, well above the .300 mark we expect this number to be at. Unlike Wilson, I would expect this number to still stay above .300 thanks to his hard-hit rate, which should help him overcome what would otherwise be easy outs. It could affect him, but enough signs point toward positive regression in other areas, even with an expected drop here with BABIP.

Verdict: The 24-year-old has come out of the gates on fire. Many of the underlying stats point toward more positive things coming for him. And if he doesn't get better, it at least looks like he should have sustained production at the levels he's at now. His 143 OPS+ could creep up to 150, and that's something that would make both Angels fans and fantasy managers extremely happy. Buy into Neto.

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