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Zach looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Jameson Taillon, Tomoyuki Sugano, Ryan Weathers for real?
Almost every fantasy baseball team in the world is looking for starting pitching help at this point in the season. Even if the need isn't urgent at this point, one key injury or slip-up can quickly send fantasy managers browsing the waiver wire in search of solutions. As the season goes on, though, plenty of pitchers emerge as potential options, and some have staying power, while others quickly fade into non-options. Determining who is for real and who is a mirage is sometimes tricky, but it's also what sets apart league-winning managers.
In this post, we'll do a deep dive on three pitchers who have stepped up and could be potential fantasy fits, depending on your team's needs. We'll look at Jameson Taillon of the Chicago Cubs, Tomoyuki Sugano of the Baltimore Orioles, and Ryan Weathers of the Miami Marlins.
Should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Or is their breakout a fake-out? Let's dive in!
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Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
2025 Stats: 11 G, 63 IP, 3.86 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 20.2% K%
30% Rostered
Taillon isn't a newcomer to fantasy baseball since he's in his ninth season in the majors, but he has been more effective this year than many people expected. The Cubs have needed him to step up with Justin Steele (elbow) out for the year and Shota Imanaga (hamstring) and Javier Assad (oblique) also on the injured list.
Taillon has five quality starts in his last six appearances and has gone 3-2 in those outings with a 3.22 ERA, 5.57 FIP, and 27 strikeouts in 36 innings. In his last start on Monday, he went 6 1/3 innings at home against the Rockies, giving up four hits and a run while matching his season-high with seven strikeouts.
JAMESON TAILLON GETS OUT THE JAM AND HE IS HYPED! 😤 pic.twitter.com/sqd7wJPE0b
— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) May 26, 2025
His strikeout numbers have been fairly consistent, with some favorable matchups helping him post those solid recent outings. He isn't an ace with dominant strikeout stuff, but he's a very solid and reliable innings eater. Usually, Taillon keeps his walks under control and has been able to limit damage.
He has leaned a little more on his fastball this season than in the past, and the pitch has had a little more horizontal movement, increasing its effectiveness.
Taillon's advanced metrics suggest that some regression could be on the way, as his FIP is significantly higher than his ERA, and he has an above-average 84.4% LOB%.
Verdict: As he has been over the last three years, Taillon is a solid depth piece to add to your rotation who can chip in wins and a decent ERA and WHIP. He isn't a high-strikeout pitcher, but he has a good shot to get wins while the Cubs' offense is flying so high.
As the weather gets warmer in Wrigley and the wind shifts to more games blowing out, his numbers will likely increase a little, but he's proven that he is a solid depth option that can be a fringe option in mixed leagues, contributing solid numbers in favorable matchups.
He isn't a flashy, high-upside pickup, but he's a servicable grab if your rotation is stretched thin due to injuries or you need to make up for early-week struggles by posting plenty of innings later in the week.
Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles
2025 Stats: 11 G, 64 IP, 3.23 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 13.7% K%
35% Rostered
Sugano is another solid option that has posted a few strong starts in a row. He isn't as well-established as Taillon since this is his first season in Major League Baseball. However, the 35-year-old still pitches like a veteran option after seven years in the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan.
In his first 11 starts, Sugano is 4-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 4.77 FIP. He has given up under three earned runs or fewer in 10 of those 11 starts and two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six. While he has good stuff overall, he hasn't racked up a ton of strikeouts, averaging just 4.92 K/9 on the season.
Tomoyuki Sugano, Back-to-Back De-Helmeting Splitters. ✌️✌️ pic.twitter.com/s635YKzNoC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2025
Like Taillon, Sugano could be due for a little bit of regression as the weather gets warmer since he gives up so much contact. He has only a 36.4% hard-hit rate against, but has given up a 10% barrel rate. His LOB% is just about league average, but his xERA is 4.49 compared to his ERA of 3.23, which means his quality of contact allowed could result in more runs in the future.
Last year in Japan, he went 15-3 in 24 starts with a 1.67 ERA and 2.16 FIP, but the competition is much stiffer now that he's come to Major League Baseball. Sugano wasn't a huge source of strikeouts even in Japan, though, so he isn't likely to suddenly start stacking up strikeouts.
Verdict: Similarly to Taillon, Sugano can be a depth piece who can pick up quality starts in favorable matchups. His lack of strikeouts and hard contact against makes him hard to trust long-term, though. He can be a fringe option in mixed leagues or a solid back-end of your rotation contributor of innings and quality starts.
He doesn't have as long a track record as Taillon, so he isn't as proven. Of the two, Taillon is a slightly better option, in my opinion, partly because he's in a better place to pick up wins. The Orioles' offense hasn't done Sugano any favors with their early-season struggles. Still, since he has shown the ability to turn in solid outings in favorable matchups, he can be used as a streamer to help ERA and WHIP as long as you can live with his low strikeout rate.
Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins
2025 Stats: 3 G, 15 2/3 IP, 1.15 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 24.6% K%
26% Rostered
Of the three pitchers, the option with the least established track record is Weathers, but he also has the highest ceiling due to his strikeout potential. The 25-year-old lefty is also much younger than the other options on this list, and potentially has more room to grow for the future in dynasty formats.
Weathers started the season on the injured list due to a strained left forearm that he suffered in spring training. He was expected to be a big part of the Marlins' rotation after a breakthrough season last year. In 2024, he posted a 3.63 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP while picking up 80 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings.
He was sharp in his three rehab outings, compiling a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 13 strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings. He made his season debut against the Cubs, going five innings and earning a victory by allowing just one run on two hits and picking up five strikeouts. He faced the Cubs again in his second outing and again went five innings with one run allowed, but this time had four strikeouts.
His most recent outing came last Monday against the Padres, when he went 5 2/3 innings in his longest outing of the season and didn't give up any earned runs. He allowed three hits and three walks, while posting a season-high six strikeouts.
Impressive start from Ryan Weathers vs his former team
5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 SO, 94 NP
FF averaged 97.7 mph and threw it 54% of the time pic.twitter.com/MZJiExpOUm
— Jeremiah Geiger (@JeremiahGeiger2) May 27, 2025
While he's still just ramping up to be fully stretched out and work deep in games, he has a very high ceiling based on his success last season and in limited work this year. He has shown excellent velocity on his fastball and has a 1.15 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts in 15 2/3innings.
His next start is scheduled for Sunday at home against the Giants, and if he's still on the waiver wire in your leagues, he's a great pickup ahead of that outing.
Verdict: Weathers isn't as safe of an innings-eater as Taillon or even Sugano, but I like his ceiling so much more. He has much more strikeout potential and will only get better as he gets up to full strength after his late start. There may be more bumps in the road for Weathers than the other veterans in this post, but he ultimately can be a bigger help to your rotation.
Weathers is one of the top widely available pickups in standard leagues, and he makes sense both short-term and long-term. He can give your starting pitching a good boost across the board with good upside and a pretty solid floor based on his work in the majors over the last two years.
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