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Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 12. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
It's now the fifth edition of our breakouts or fake outs article for hitters. We're hoping to lead you to the promised land, and that's a place only xwOBA can take you (or that's what I tell myself, at least).
Heading into Week 12, there's still a bit of data we've got to dig through to determine who's benefiting from luck and who's getting true results. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.
I will break down four hot hitters exceeding preseason expectations in this article. We will find out who's real and who isn't between Junior Caminero, Lawrence Butler, Wyatt Langford, and Hunter Goodman. Now, let's get into it. All stats in this article reflect games played through Tuesday, 6/17.
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Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Stats: .799 OPS, 124 OPS+, 17 HR, 45 RBI, 42 R, 5 SB
After spending most of his time in 2024 tuning things up in the minors, Caminero has started making a name for himself in the Rays' lineup. The 21-year-old has turned up the power this season and is Tampa's current HR leader with 17. He hit just six bombs last season in 177 PA, making this a rather significant power increase. So, is this change real or not?
For starters, much of Caminero's baseline stats look similar. He's hitting for a .250 average, just above his .248 mark last season. His OBP sits at .295, just a tick lower than his .299 mark in 2024. But the slugging percentage is up from .424 to .504, the major reason we're seeing a bump in his production.
MUST SEE: With his dad in attendance for #FathersDay, Junior Caminero slams a 3-run shot and points to him as he rounds the bases 🥹 pic.twitter.com/lmlpKbi4rS
— MLB (@MLB) June 15, 2025
One thing he's doing a bit better is decreasing his strikeouts. He's down from 21.5 percent to 17.9 percent this season. That already relatively low number is now helping to result in more balls in play. His eye at the plate hasn't changed much from season to season, as his six percent walk percentage is almost the same as in 2024.
Even from a batted ball perspective, there's not a ton that's different on the outside. His groundball rate is essentially identical to last season, while he's hitting fewer fly balls, seeing that rate decrease from 38.6 percent to 35.6 percent. That extra three percent goes directly to line drives, seeing that rate bump up from 13.4 percent to 16.7 percent.
The major change year-over-year is his HR/FB rate, which has jumped from 12.2 percent to 22.1 percent this season. One may think that the change in home ballparks has been a reason for that, but Tampa's park factors for Steinbrenner Field actually rank as a tougher hitters' park than Tropicana Field did, so he's overcoming some of those apparent challenges.
Caminero certainly LOVES hitting at Steinbrenner Field. He's posted a .905 OPS at home compared to a .631 OPS on the road. Another interesting aspect of his splits is he's much better against righties, hitting them for an .851 OPS compared to just a .659 OPS against lefties.
Junior Caminero hits a LOUD home run off the batter's eye 😳
On his own bobblehead night! pic.twitter.com/kALzb9hwPq
— MLB (@MLB) June 6, 2025
One thing Caminero is doing more this season is hitting the ball harder, more often. That's part of why he's been more successful, as his hard hit rate has jumped from 45.7 percent to 49.5 percent. But another aspect that's helping him, a bit contradictory to his fly ball percentage, is that his average launch angle has increased from 6.8 degrees to 8.8 degrees. Just that slight increase is helping some balls go out. According to Baseball Savant, he is also pulling balls in the air at a much higher percentage (14.2 percent in 2024 vs 21.3 percent in 2025). Hitting it hard to a shorter part of the field with a higher launch angle usually means good things!
When we look at some of the expected stats, they say that Caminero's results have been fairly true. He has posted a .342 wOBA and a .347 xwOBA. Without a large gap between them, we can assume the results are real. If anything, his .246 BABIP tells us he may even be getting a bit unlucky on some of his balls in play. Last season, he posted a .289 BABIP in his 43 games in the majors, so we may not expect a .300 number for him, but you'd assume he'll start getting more hits and positive luck soon.
Pitchers have attacked Caminero mostly with sinkers. Last season, it was his worst pitch to face as he hit it for just a .166 wOBA to go along with a .203 xwOBA. A clear weak point in his swing. But he's put in the work and now his hitting them for a .423 wOBA, a really solid number to have. That's got some negative regression coming for it, though, as it's paired with a .374 xwOBA. While not as dominant, it's still a really solid floor to have.
His second-most seen pitch is four-seamer fastballs. He hits those for a .387 wOBA and a .376 xwOBA. Negative regression? Sure, but not a worrisome fall. Sliders are a different case, though, as his .389 wOBA against them is paired with a .304 xwOBA. That's quite the drop and an area that I'd expect pitchers to focus more on in the future. He should expect negative regression with sweepers as well as his .423 wOBA against them is paired with a .398 xwOBA. That's certainly the much more desirable breaking pitch for him to see.
Where we start to see more balance, and numbers that help explain the expected positive regression from his overall profile, is his matchups against changeups and cutters. They make up about 17 percent of the pitches that he sees. Against changeups, he's posting just a .287 wOBA, but that's paired with a .362 xwOBA. Against cutters, he's posting a .253 wOBA and a .359 xwOBA. Should pitchers choose to look at current results and try to get him out with those pitches, they will more than likely be making mistakes that they'll be paying for shortly.
Verdict: Caminero has become an excellent power hitter for the Rays, and I'd expect him to continue to produce at the level he's at. Based on BABIP and how hard he's been hitting the ball, you can even expect a little bit more production from him shortly. He's not going to jump into the 150 OPS+ range by any means, but seeing his 124 OPS+ jump up to 130 or 135 isn't out of the question. Keep him in your lineups and reap the benefits, especially against righties at home.
Lawrence Butler, Athletics
2025 Stats: .775 OPS, 116 OPS+, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 43 R, 11 SB
Butler had been struggling an incredible amount in 2024 before making some mechanical changes to his swing in July that seemed to fix everything. His .898 OPS in the second half of last season helped to build up some momentum and hope for this season's success.
For the most part, Butler has been seeing success this season. His 116 OPS+ is above league average, and he's been a doubles machine. He's hit 23 two-baggers on the season, tied with Bobby Witt Jr. for the league lead. To show how extraordinary that is for the 24-year-old, he hit 24 all of last season.
So, should we expect the A's outfielder to keep up this pace?
Lawrence Butler smokes this ball and extends the @Athletics lead! pic.twitter.com/94FQjQpIRu
— MLB (@MLB) June 14, 2025
To start, let's look at his plate approach. We see promising signs with his eye at the plate, as his walk rate has risen from 7.8 percent to 8.7 percent. More concerning, we're seeing his strikeout rate increase from 23.9 percent last season to 27.7 percent in 2025. Much of that concerns his 32.8 percent whiff rate, which ranks in the seventh percentile. His chase rate is above league-average, so he's not swinging at bad pitches; he's just happening to miss more often than you want to see.
From a batted ball profile, nothing seems drastically different. His groundball rate (44.4 percent), flyball rate (35.2 percent), and line drive rate (20.4 percent) are all within about two percentage points of where they were in 2024.
One major difference is his HR/FB rate, which has dropped from 19 percent to 14.5 percent. The drop seems steep, but he was also at 10.3 percent in 2023, which was only over a 42-game sample size. He is pulling the ball in the air less in 2025 with an 11.7 percent rate, but in 2024 that sat at 15.6 percent. Neither is a very high percentage, but fewer balls being pulled in the air won't contribute to as many homers.
As we move onto the expected stats, this is where it starts to get a little more dicey for the rest of Butler's 2025. His current .338 wOBA is paired with a .317 xwOBA. That ranks in the 34th percentile and puts him in the company of hitters like Victor Caratini and Anthony Volpe.
Part of that drop that xwOBA predicts will be driven by his .337 BABIP, signifying that he's been getting a bit lucky on balls in play. Some of that drop will be negated as his hard hit rate of 46.2 percent ranks a bit above league average, but he will see some less fortunate results here soon.
Now, for how pitchers have been attacking him. He sees four-seamers the most, posting a strong .409 wOBA against them. But with us already foreshadowing negative regression coming, this is a pitch he'll start to do worse against. His xwOBA on four-seamers is at .368, a sizeable gap. With him seeing these over 30 percent of the time, a decent chunk of regression will come here.
Lawrence butler since this tweet:
18 games
82 PA
.371/.463/.671
1.135 OPS
25.6 K%
14.6 BB%pic.twitter.com/GsO3aTjhsz https://t.co/FVV9GPcZ0s— Adam (@AdamThaSportFan) June 5, 2025
One pitch where he's going to see drastically different results against soon is sinkers. Currently, he's mashing them for a .458 wOBA, but that's paired with a .317 xwOBA. That suggests he's been getting very, very lucky against sinkers. When the pendulum swings, it's going to hurt a bunch here.
A pitch that I would expect pitchers to attack Butler more with is the changeup. Currently, it's the pitch he sees second-most, and he's not seen good results. He hits them for a .207 wOBA that's paired with a .192 xwOBA. That gap's not drastic, but the results are porous. Pitchers will still need to set this up with a good fastball, but with negative regression coming for both four-seamers and sinkers, I'd expect the bad results against changeups to continue.
Verdict: While Butler has done a very good job of turning things around after a horrendous start in 2024, he's clearly overachieving this season. I can't ignore the amount of negative regression we expect to see through four-seamers and sinkers. Combine that with an inflated BABIP, pointing to a decent drop-off on the way. I'd expect his OPS+ to regress to a league average number around 100 when all is said and done.
Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
2025 Stats: .755 OPS, 118 OPS+, 13 HR, 30 RBI, 30 R, 11 SB
After a solid rookie season, Langford looked to come into 2025 and make an impact on the Texas lineup. While the Rangers' offense hasn't been the most effective in the league, it hasn't been because of Langford's performance.
His 118 OPS+ and 13 HR lead the Texas offense this season. The 118 OPS+ is just a few ticks higher than the 114 OPS+ he posted in 2024, meaning we're continuing to get much of what he brought to the table in his rookie campaign.
As we look at his plate approach, there's only a slight difference in his walk percentage, but it's going the right way. He's now walking 10.2 percent of the time compared to 9.2 percent in 2024. His strikeout rate's a little more concerning, as it's risen from 20.6 percent to 24.9 percent. That's not a number to worry a ton about yet, but the more it creeps toward 30 percent, the more he has to do when he gets the ball in play.
His batted ball profile is nearly a carbon copy of last season. His groundball rate (40.6 percent), flyball rate (41.2 percent), and line drive rate (18.2 percent) are all within 0.4 percent of where they were last season. Like I said, a near carbon copy.
Wyatt Langford is very, very good at baseball.pic.twitter.com/LhkYiJK1yW
— Michael Bier (@MichaelJBier) May 31, 2025
Where he's capitalizing more this season is his HR/FB rate, which has increased from 9.9 percent to 18.6 percent. Nearly doubling that number is a great way to keep production high and a fantastic sign that he's mashing it when it's in the air. Last season he hit 16 HR in 134, and he's already hit 13 this year, and we're not even halfway done yet.
As we move onto the expected stats, it's apparent that Langford has more in the tank that Rangers fans and fantasy managers should be excited about. He's currently hitting for a .328 wOBA paired with a .349 xwOBA. Some of that will be driven by his .268 BABIP. Last season, Langford put up a .296 BABIP, so expecting that to rise closer to .300 by the end of the season is a realistic expectation.
Pitchers have mainly attacked him with four-seam fastballs. He sees them 32.4 percent of the time and hits them for a .376 wOBA. That's paired with a .402 xwOBA, giving us a good chunk of positive regression coming for Langford on this pitch.
We do see that he's been a bit lucky against sinkers. He's hitting them for a .395 wOBA, and that's paired with a .363 xwOBA. This will balance out some of the positive regression he's expecting from four-seamers, but he sees sinkers fairly less.
Wyatt Langford homer #4.pic.twitter.com/FW4oBVvIpa
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) April 9, 2025
A pitch that I'm expecting him to have drastically different results against in the future is sliders. Currently, he's hitting them for a .350 wOBA, which is respectable enough on its own. But that's paired with a .451 xwOBA, which means he should be demolishing sliders a ton more. Even though he only sees them 13 percent of the time, that's a massive swing in luck that will pay off for Langford once the pendulum swings.
Verdict: Langford is clearly in an area where positive regression is heading his way. The only question is simply how much. If his .349 xwOBA becomes his new mark, it means he will produce similarly to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., which I think most Rangers fans would sign up for. Buy into Langford as a nice boost should be coming his way soon.
Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
2025 Stats: .846 OPS, 125 OPS+, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 37 R, 1 SB
I know what you're thinking. Why are we highlighting a member of the Colorado Rockies? Well, Hunter Goodman has been a beacon of light in a relatively dark season for Colorado. He's easily been their best hitter and has a good chance to be their lone representative at the All-Star game.
Last season, Goodman played in 70 games and hit for just a 68 OPS+. Coming into Tuesday's action, he was right at 70 games again and is hitting for a 125 OPS+. So what's driving that difference, and is it real?
At least we have Hunter Goodman pic.twitter.com/RGHpkWCqEl
— Christian Saez🎙 (@DNVRSaez) June 12, 2025
Well, your first thought with any Rockies player is likely, "Well, hey, he's benefiting from Coors Field." That can always be true, but Goodman's a significantly better hitter on the road this season than at home. He's hitting for a .753 OPS at Coors and a .930 OPS on the road. The opposite of the Coors Effect, I guess.
From a plate approach perspective, he's relatively similar to who he was last season. His walk rate has increased from 3.6 percent to 4.9 percent. His strikeout rate has decreased from 28.6 percent to 26.1 percent. Slight movement, but both are moving in the right direction.
His batted ball profile looks a little different than last season. He's seen his groundball rate drop from 38.9 percent to 37 percent. He's seen his flyball rate also drop from 45.6 percent to 43.2 percent. Those decreases have all factored into an increase in line drives. His line drive rate is now at 19.8 percent after being at 15.4 percent last season.
What's a little confounding, given his drastic increase in OPS+, is that his HR/FB rate is actually lower this season (15.7 percent) than it was last season (19.1 percent). Some of that can be attributed to him having a few more ABs this season, but both have resulted in 13 HR.
As we move on to the expected stats, we have to start looking a bit closer. Goodman's hitting for a .364 wOBA, paired with a .334 xwOBA. While that points towards obvious negative regression, we must figure out how much is real since he calls Coors Field his home.
The Rockies, as a team, hit for a .291 wOBA that's paired with a .303 xwOBA. So, in general, we should be expecting positive regression from his stats. Additionally, we know he's a better road hitter than a home hitter. All that's to say that the negative regression shown is more than likely real. But let's dig into the rest.
First off, that xwOBA ranks in the 54th percentile. So even though we're expecting negative regression, he'll still cool off to about a league-average hitter. Goodman also has a .352 BABIP. If we expect that number to always be around .300, then it only confirms the idea of negative regression.
Some of that may be staved off thanks to how hard Goodman hits the ball. His hard hit percentage of 51 percent ranks in the 88th percentile. That ideally should still help him with some balls in play and maybe keep that BABIP a tick above .300 or so.
Fun Fact:
Among qualified hitters so far in June, #Rockies Hunter Goodman is the league leader in ISO (.583) and wOBA (.597) pic.twitter.com/VUaGsd07Tv
— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) June 12, 2025
Now, for how pitchers attack him. They mostly go at him with four-seam fastballs. He's hitting them for just a .293 wOBA, his second-worst number against any pitch he sees. But that's paired with a .366 xwOBA. Given we're expecting negative regression, that's a bit of a shock for a pitch he sees 31 percent of the time.
It's sliders, changeups, and curveballs where we can expect worse results to come for Goodman soon. He hits sliders for a crushing .445 wOBA but a .343 xwOBA. He hits changeups for a .447 wOBA, but that's paired with a .326 xwOBA. He hits curves for a .494 wOBA, and that's paired with a .240 xwOBA. These make up for about 36 percent of pitches he sees and are a big reason we expect negative regression for the Rockies' catcher.
One pitch he will continue to have success against is sinkers. He sees them 11.7 percent of the time and hits them for a .440 wOBA. That's paired with a .423 xwOBA. Even with a slight bit of negative regression coming, that's still a pitch he will mash one way or another.
Verdict: It's a bit of a strange case when you look deep into all the factors, but one way or another, we've got to expect that negative regression is coming for Goodman. He's overachieving, and the drop-off in xwOBA and BABIP points towards something that can't be ignored. When all is said and done, he should still be an above league-average hitter, so it's not time to get rid of him. Expect his OPS+ to drop closer to the 105-110 range, especially if his stats at home don't improve.
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