Big-Name Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in 2025: 4 Overvalued "Stars"

John Johnson's big-name fantasy football players to avoid in 2025 drafts. His overvalued early-round fantasy football picks, including Tyreek Hill and more.

Most people hate hearing that their favorite players will be busts in the upcoming fantasy football season. But turning a blind eye to the massive red flags that a lot of big-name players are waving in front of our faces is a great way to lose your fantasy football leagues.

It's not like all of these players will have terrible seasons, but what matters is value. And the worst thing you can have in fantasy football is a player whom you spent an early round pick on who not only doesn't live up to expectations but continues to deliver disappointing results, leading to you losing multiple matchups.

When you feel like you have to start a player, and they keep losing you games, you're in terrible shape. And that's just not somewhere you want to be. For every talented player with red flags, there are other talented players with fewer who you should be more interested in picking up. So, let's dive in!

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Hill was a huge disappointment last season. A lot of the factors that cause him to have a bad year aren't things that are changing -- in fact, some of them are worsening. It's true that his starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, suffered another concussion and missed four games in 2024.

But rather than that being an excuse for Hill's poor year overall, that should be a massive red flag, for starters. The Dolphins offense has zero backup plan if Tagovailoa gets hurt again. Their current QB2 is Zach Wilson, who can't competently run an NFL offense.

Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is being placed on Injured Reserve, per @rapsheet and @MikeGarafolo pic.twitter.com/eFkxWhTIRb

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 17, 2024

Tagovailoa is, unfortunately, the NFL's poster boy for concussions. He's now suffered three major concussions in his NFL career, and he seems to still play with the reckless abandon that's led him to miss significant time due to injuries.

One of the league's most injury-prone quarterbacks gives us a solid chance that Hill will be completely unstartable for at least a few weeks. Yet, he'll still be in many starting lineups, just in case he gets that one long touchdown. And speaking of long touchdowns, the Dolphins didn't have many in 2024.

Awesome thread by the way. Really great stuff. I understand the sentiment here, but I have to push back on the Hill/Waddle hype. The Dolphins have two fantastic YAC threats now in De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith. I think their offense has permanently changedhttps://t.co/ybaYE1OVTx

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

I have major issues with the idea that Hill (and his teammate, WR Jaylen Waddle) will just magically return to their 2022 and 2023 forms, and become easy league-winners again. The Dolphins offense has fundamentally changed for a number of reasons.

First of all, as in the above tweet, the personnel are very different. The team now has running back De'Von Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith. Achane is the best yards-after-catch threat of any running back in the NFL. He has elite receiving upside for a back, and he produced well with his usage in that area last season.

Even though Smith was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Achane will continue to significantly limit both Hill and Waddle's opportunities.

DeVon Achane Anytime Touchdown “YES”✅✅
(-109)CZRs

BANGGGGG! ❤️IF YOU CASHED!

Secured a winning Thanksgiving NFL DAY!💰
pic.twitter.com/GZGPulT03O

— Austin (@austinsprops) November 29, 2024

To build on this, I mentioned in one of the replies to my post that the Dolphins' elite offensive lines of 2022-23 were the major engines behind their deep-passing-game success. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel could dial up endless deep shots, and its WRs had much more time to get open down the field.

Part of it could be Tua's injury history. Part could be the offensive line play. Keep in mind Terron Armstead retired. A line with Armstead, Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams (2022-2023) was the major engine behind that offense being so damn good.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

Miami's offensive line has taken a major step back since then. Interior offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Connor Williams, two of the league's best, left for other teams, with Williams since retiring. And left tackle Terron Armstead retired as well. That's not good news.

Tagovailoa's pass protection could be even worse in 2025 than in 2024. And the tight end Smith is one of the league's best YAC threats at his position as well. He proved so in 2024. Miami's offense can continue to throw shorter passes and squeak by.

Another week, another HUGE performance by Jonnu Smith ‼️📈

- 9 REC
- 87 YDS
- TD

Retweet to get Jonnu Smith to his First Pro Bowl 🚨#ProBowlVote 🗳️ https://t.co/UzL3fg4Qnr pic.twitter.com/iE2lW7Do0a

— Bobby Shouse (@B_Shousejr) November 25, 2024

McDaniel has as much motivation as he needs to get the ball out quickly. I don't see how Hill, who's now 31 years old and is at the prime age to lose a step, could win leagues without getting spammed with targets. And he now simply has more target competition. Hill wins with blinding acceleration and speed, and not much else.

I can't help but avoid drafting Tyreek Hill in the 2nd round in fantasy, which I've seen in a lot of mocks. Tua Tagovailoa's avg time to throw didn't change much, but his ADOT was WAY down. I think this is a personnel thing. Tyreek is 31 and Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane exist. pic.twitter.com/fFb9SCRecD

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

And Waddle's 2022 season was just not sustainable.

Jaylen Waddle's 2022 season was an aberration fueled by Tua's huge ADOT, too. Smith and Achane are serious target competition, and they give the offense a dimension they didn't previously have. I fear we'll never see 2022 Waddle or 2022-2023 Hill again.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

I'd rather avoid both of these guys at their ADPs.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before anyone tries to write off my following Irving analysis as being "just a hater," I should note that I drafted him in every single fantasy football league I was in last season, and was a huge believer in his talent. I would call myself more of a hater of RB Rachaad White, who Irving basically stole the Bucs' RB1 job from.

However, I think the now second-year pro's ADP is just a bit too high for my liking. It's hard for me to justify taking him in the second round. One big reason is that I just don't believe the whole offense's 2024 performance was simply its own doing, and that Liam Coen was along for the ride.

This is some FILTH from Liam Coen

Blast Motion to Kickout the Edge + Influence Wham on the Nose 🥵 pic.twitter.com/gTRLV8dYM5

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) December 2, 2024

I've been a big proponent of Coen ever since reviewing the tape of his offense with the Bucs last season. Coen engineered one of the league's best offenses, helping turn Irving into a fantasy superstar. His run-blocking schemes, in particular, were my favorite of all that I saw last year. And they were genius.

Ivring often had huge lanes to run through. And even on receiving plays, the blocks set up in front of him were incredibly well-designed. I lost count of the number of times I saw Irving working with huge amounts of space, and the big men in front of him pulling off their assignments to perfection.

Bucky Irving in his 5 games with MORE than 10 Rushing Attempts is averaging:

➖20.8 PPG
➖128.4 YPG
➖0.8 TD’s

His 17 Game Pace:

➖353.6 Fantasy Points
➖2,183 Total Yards
➖14 TD’s

Irving ranks top 5 in the NFL in Yards Per Touch (6.0), Juke Rate (31.2%), & Catch Rate (95%). pic.twitter.com/bzvWmN53zH

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) December 17, 2024

I do think Irving will have a good season in 2025. I'm less optimistic that the team's new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, who was the pass game coordinator for Tampa Bay in 2024, will be able to replicate that level of success.

There's another layer to this that I believe many fantasy managers refuse to consider. Sophomore slumps tend to seemingly come "out of nowhere" often for second-year players. I think it's reasonable to consider that defenses having an entire offseason knowing who a player is and being able to game plan for them is significant.

Anyone else think the potential for sophomore slumps simply because defenses have the entire offseason actually knowing who a player is and prepping to slow them down is under-appreciated? NFL defenses getting tape on guys is one of the biggest equalizers in the sport

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

Irving was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, a class that featured a particularly weak group of running backs. I sincerely doubt opposing defenses were overly worried about getting stomped on by the 5-foot-9, 192-pound back who ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash.

Predicting a sophomore slump for Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was met with much derision on social media. And many of us, including me, were shocked to see what happened. But I wouldn't be shocked to see a slight regression for Irving as a rusher.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

The current Jeanty situation is extremely unprecedented. We've never seen a rookie from a college in a smaller conference (like the Mountain West Conference) at running back be drafted so high in the NFL Draft and have such a high ADP in fantasy football leagues.

I understand all the arguments for his upside. And I agree that he will likely get a large amount of volume on what should be a pretty run-heavy offense. But there are just too many red flags for my liking in this situation. For starters, he's a rookie, so drafting him as the RB8, as early as the late first round, is just wild.

Prayer circle for a a healthy Christian McCaffrey in 2025 🔥 pic.twitter.com/4JPcTDRS1B

— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) May 16, 2025

We don't need to analyze him first. Let's just look at some of the players with lower ADPs. A proven league-winner, Christian McCaffrey, comes with MUCH less risk. All he has to do is stay healthy. He's come back from injury-riddled seasons to win leagues in subsequent years in the past. We know it can happen.

I'm sorry, but what the hell? Have people collectively gone insane? I cannot get behind drafting Ashton Jeanty as the RB4 (8th overall) in redraft leagues. SO many things have to go right for this pay off. I have RJ Harvey projected to outscore him. Insane stuff pic.twitter.com/GNoGz5J2xY

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

You're passing on a crop of proven studs to take a question mark. I have my share of issues with Jeanty's evaluation as well. He had a very easy strength of schedule in the MWC. Many point to his games against Oregon and Penn State as proof that he is great!

The problem with this is that many running backs put up big numbers against colleges like Oregon and Penn State. That doesn't guarantee that you'll be an NFL stud. The rest of his numbers are mostly against far-outmatched schools. It's very tough to project that into the big leagues.

Strength of Schedule:

Jeanty -2.29
Taylor 6.18
Henry 7.46 https://t.co/KStLiZhSQi

— Fusue (@DevyEusuf) November 22, 2024

Several NFL studs took time to break out, even at the RB position. Derrick Henry, a surefire Hall of Famer and one of the NFL's best RBs of all time, didn't even impress in his first two seasons. Jeanty could have a fantastic NFL career, but a slow start could render picking him at his ADP a massive blunder.

I don't know why people are so eager to put their entire seasons on the line to make such a risky pick. The opportunity cost is just massive. And all for a player who didn't even test at the 2025 NFL Combine. I know it was the right move for him to make, but I'm nervous that his lack of athletic testing could be obscuring something disappointing.

That movement by Ashton Jeanty is elite 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ln8pE4afKS

— Sanjit T. (@Sanjit__T) May 9, 2025

I know it's hard not to get excited about Jeanty. The absolute avalanche of hype on social media has me excited to see his rookie season. But hype and reality don't always match up. The facts of the situation are concerning to me. And I haven't even mentioned that the Raiders have a new, and yet unproven, offensive coaching staff.

I also don't know that Jeanty's volume projections will be entirely accurate. Quarterback Geno Smith was one of the league's best situation-adjusted passers last season. And the Raiders defense is not very good. If Vegas is forced to pass the ball a lot, Jeanty's volume could take a hit.

So the Raiders defense gave up the 8th most points per game and the 6th most points per play of any defense in 2024. They brought in Geno Smith, who played great last season. The idea that they can just become an incredibly run heavy team overnight baffles me. pic.twitter.com/Zn9V8K8QEo

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

I'm skeptical of the situation as well as the player. Rookies are never a sure thing, which is why I greatly prefer to draft them in the later rounds. Getting the surprisingly good rookies, like Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey, by taking shots in the later round is the outcome I'd prefer.

Of course, it's hard to pull that off, but at least if you whiff on those picks, and you picked your proven studs in the early rounds, your team doesn't suffer as much. And the overall upside is awesome because if both types of picks work out, you can win your league.

Picking Jeanty in the first round is scary to me.

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