7 Later-Round Lotto Tickets - Fantasy Football Value Picks and Draft Gems

September 2, 2025

Dan's late-round fliers and lottery tickets - 2025 fantasy football value picks and draft gems. His favorite cheap value picks with upside, including Keenan Allen and more.

As of this writing, the Powerball jackpot sits just shy of one BILLION dollars. Who knows where it might be come Saturday. Why mention this in a fantasy football article? That’s because today I’m here to share with you my favorite late-round fliers (AKA lottery tickets, get it?) for the 2025 fantasy football season.

I love the final rounds of a fantasy football draft for the opportunity to take shots at long shots. The likelihood of one paying off is low, but if one does hit, then I could have a league-winner on my hands. And since the draft capital is so low, I’m not compelled to stay committed. Should a player not pan out, I can cut them as easily as tossing out my losing numbers.

What constitutes a late-round pick varies with the size and depth of each league, so I’ll set my cutoff at an ADP of 150(ish). This would put a player in the final rounds in a typical 10- or 12-team league with a 15-round draft. Now grab a highlighter and your cheat sheet, a pencil and your notepad, or open up the spreadsheet of your choice and take note of my favorite lottery tickets to watch for as drafts wind down.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 145; WR55

For the first two weeks of the 2024 season, the Saints looked like the NFL’s most dynamic offense, and Shaheed was a big reason why. Even after their fall from grace, Shaheed kept up an electric pace until a torn meniscus suffered in Week 6 ended his season early. Up to that point, Shaheed led all receivers in total air yards (721), team share of air yards (50.3%), targets exceeding 20 air yards (16), and was eighth in the league with an average depth of target of 17.6 yards.

New Orleans recently named Spencer Rattler as its QB1. Mixing in with an ineffective Derek Carr last year, Rattler played with confidence and showed flashes of promise in his rookie season. Rattler ranked thirteenth in pass attempts per game (32.6) and ninth in both deep throw rate (13.2%) and air yards per game (262.0). In other words, Shaheed's new quarterback isn’t shy about chucking it, nor is he afraid to chuck it deep.

Adding to that is the Saints’ new coaching staff, led by newly minted head coach Kellen Moore. An offensive coordinator since 2019, Moore has directed teams to top-10 finishes in pass attempts in four of the last six years and in passing yards and touchdowns in three. Moore taking charge could revive a Saints offense that sputtered through most of the season in 2024. I’m looking forward to seeing Shaheed pick up where he left off.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 146; WR56

Allen is back in Los Angeles for 2025, but is no longer the top dog. Ladd McConkey’s meteoric rise in 2024 makes him the presumed alpha in the Chargers’ wide receiver room in 2025. No matter. While Allen was with the Bears last season, he managed to lead the team in both air yard share (33.4%) and target share (27.3%) while sharing the field with DJ Moore and ninth overall draft pick Rome Odunze.

Allen’s move reunites him with quarterback Justin Herbert. During their previous stint together from 2020 to 2023, Allen averaged 10.2 targets per game and had the seventh most total receptions (380). The focus on McConkey and rookie Omarion Hampton in Greg Roman’s run-heavy offense has suppressed Allen’s perceived value.

At cost, I’m all in on Allen in 2025. Over the last eight years, he has had five 1,000-yard seasons (and was eight yards away in 2020 from making it six) and had at least 100 receptions five times (missing a sixth by 3 catches in 2018). Even if Allen puts up something closer to his 70-774-7 line from last year, I’ll take it in the twelfth round or later happily.

Ollie Gordon II, RB, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 161; RB56

The Miami Dolphins selected Gordon in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft back in May. When he initially joined the team, there were three proven veterans on the depth chart ahead of him. After a disappointing 2024 season at Oklahoma State and a lackluster showing at the NFL Combine, Gordon was more likely to see sporadic touches in short-yardage situations than to push for serious playing time as a rookie.

Over the course of the offseason, circumstances have improved Gordon’s outlook. First, Alexander Mattison (neck) was seriously injured in the Dolphins’ first preseason game and will spend all of 2025 on injured reserve. In mid-August, starter De'Von Achane (calf) suffered a calf injury that has kept him off the practice field and out of preseason games. And finally, on August 21, backup Jaylen Wright (leg) left practice early after going down with a leg injury of his own.

That series of unfortunate events suddenly puts Gordon near the top of the depth chart. It was recently announced that Wright underwent surgery and could be back “September-ish” according to head coach Mike McDaniel. Achane is expected to be “ready Week 1 to go,” per Dolphins general manager Chris Grier. Depending on how ready Achane actually is, Gordon could make an impact out of the gate. I’ll be happier having gambled on him with a late draft pick and being wrong than seeing him pop off and then having to take my chances in the ensuing FAAB fight.

Go GET Ollie Gordon while you can

-Only rostered in 19% of ESPN leagues
-Only healthy RB in Miami
-Achane has calf strain and history of injuries
-in 2023 rushed for 1700 and 21 TD’s
-Dominated his preseason reps
-Likely goal line guy

He’s the REAL deal pic.twitter.com/En2uFp4aHj

— Dr. Evan Jeffries, DPT (@GameInjuryDoc) August 28, 2025

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: 185; QB25

After a stellar 2022 campaign earned him Comeback Player of the Year honors, Smith regressed in 2023, seeing declines in completion rate, passing yards, and touchdowns. The 2024 season was a mixed bag, with Smith once again achieving a 4,000-yard season and logging the league’s fifth-best completion rate (70.4%), but also giving up 15 interceptions to his 21 touchdown passes.

Now a member of the Las Vegas Raiders, Smith has a new cadre of weapons surrounding him. First and foremost is tight end Brock Bowers, who set rookie records with 112 receptions and 1,194 receiving yards in 2024. Smith will also be throwing to the sure-handed Jakobi Meyers and veteran Amari Cooper, who has seven 1,000-yard seasons in a ten-year career. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty will be a major focus for opposing defenses, which may open things up for Smith.

I’m not sure that I want Smith as my team’s QB1, but I like the idea of having him on my bench to see what develops over the first weeks of the season.

Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 198; TE23

It is hard to find a team that has had a more significant upgrade at quarterback than the Tennessee Titans. Even though Cam Ward is a rookie, he can fairly be expected to bring more to the table than his predecessors, Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. Tight end Okonkwo stands to benefit immensely.

Despite shoddy play from his quarterback over the years, Okonkwo managed to eke out consecutive 70-target seasons in 2023 and 2024. After Calvin Ridley, the Titans’ next best pass-catching options are Van Jefferson and the ghost of Tyler Lockett. At minimum, Okonkwo will operate as the typical rookie QB safety valve, but he could easily become Ward’s second read given the state of the supporting cast.

Chig Okonkwo gets in open space for a 70-yard TD!

📺: #TENvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/98scOwfisp

— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024

Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets

ADP: 222; TE26

Taylor is another tight end I’ll consider in the last round of my drafts. Like Okonkwo, I like Taylor’s situation as much as the player himself. Beyond Garrett Wilson, there is very little to like about the remaining Jets pass-catchers, and Taylor has a clear path to the top of the tight end depth chart.

With Justin Fields under center in New York, the Jets will be operating a run-heavy offense. Even so, Taylor could thrive. While Fields was with the Bears between 2021 and 2023, tight end Cole Kmet saw two 90-target seasons and finished in the top two in targets on the team all three years. In other words, even though Fields doesn’t put the ball up a ton, he likes to find his tight ends.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

ADP: 255; RB77

Joe Mixon (ankle) was placed on the non-football injury list this week, confirming suspicions that he would be unavailable at the start of the season. NFI-designees are out for at least four weeks, but Texans top brass is non-committal to the idea of Mixon playing at all in 2025. That leaves the door open for a new starter in Houston’s backfield.

In comes Nick Chubb, who came back late last season and looked like a shadow of his former self after suffering yet another catastrophic knee injury in 2023. Rookie Woody Marks has caught the eye of many in the fantasy football world, and rightly so. The fourth-round selection looked solid in pass protection in the preseason and has a reputation for being a reliable pass catcher.

Instead, I’m cutting against the grain and betting on a bounce-back year for Pierce. Pierce had 939 rushing yards as a rookie in 2022 but fell off the next season and was leapfrogged on the depth chart by Devin Singletary. In 2024, he was relegated to a pure backup role while Mixon enjoyed a fruitful season as Houston’s bellcow. If Pierce is the man, it will be seen in the first weeks of the season, and if not, he will make for an easy cut as I scour the waiver wire.

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