RADIO
Rob's must-draft fantasy football wide receivers and potential league-winners. His undervalued WRs and value picks with upside, including George Pickens.
In fantasy football, we're always chasing upside. We want league winners, guys who can be difference-makers. The reality is, there are only about 15 of these players in any given year. This series will focus on nine receivers - three in this edition and the remaining six in the final two editions - who are highly likely to significantly outperform their ADP. While not every player can be a "league-winner", we can always add a player who provides an impactful return on investment.
These nine receivers are solidly undervalued and have the potential to finish several tiers higher than their current rankings. Every single one of these receivers can realistically finish in the top-24 of receiver scoring, which is significant because six out of the nine receivers we're going to touch on have an ADP outside the top-40. Three aren't even in the top 50. Does that sound like players you're interested in? Because it should!
Let's get started with our first three receivers you need to be drafting this year. Be sure to look for the second and third entries to learn who are the final six! To take advantage of our great premium tools, please use the promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!
George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys - WR29
Last year, Pickens ran 412 routes as the Steelers' No. 1 receiver. Jalen Tolbert, the Cowboys' No. 2 receiver, ran 504 routes. That was despite Tolbert running a route on just 73.4% of the dropbacks. Pickens posted a 2.18-yard per route run average in Pittsburgh, catching passes from Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. If Pickens maintained his same yard-per-route-run efficiency in Dallas on the same number of routes that Tolbert ran, he would have finished with 1,099 yards. Now, imagine if Pickens is more effective with a better quarterback. Take it a step further, and imagine if Pickens runs more than the 504 routes that Tolbert ran.
George Pickens has improved as a route-runner every single season.
(Percentiles via @RecepPerception)
AS A ROOKIE:
34th % vs Man
5th % vs Zone
69th % vs PressIN YR2:
50th % vs Man
17th % vs Zone
71st % vs PressIN YR3:
74th % vs Man
19th % vs Zone
83rd % vs PressIN YR4❓👀 pic.twitter.com/fqicjOUq4v
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFFWrld) July 31, 2025
Pickens has continued to get better every year, and now he's finally in an environment that can capitalize on his skill set. CeeDee Lamb is one of the best all-around receivers in the game, and Dallas frequently moves him around all over the formation. That puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Pickens is one of the best X-receivers in the league who can destroy man-to-man and press coverage. This combo is very similar to the one Cincinnati employs, and fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if the Dallas offense operates as Cincinnati-lite.
The image above is courtesy of Pickens' 2024 Reception Perception profile, which you can read here. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Pickens' 2024 game film and his 2025 outlook in Dallas,
"You could see the work he put into the game on film last season when he was fully engaged. It seems like a small detail, but this was best reflected in his on-film running slants and quick out routes when working against man coverage. No shock, both his slant and flat success rates were at the highest mark of his career by a significant margin. While some may claim it is silly to obsess over these shorter routes for a guy who has been a proven big-play threat throughout his career, being a reliable and dangerous separator on these types of patterns allows you to access a higher volume ceiling as an X-receiver, rather than just being a volatile complementary player. He was more disciplined and separated with detailed footwork on those routes against man all through the year. George Pickens is such a fascinating player, and the more I’ve thought about his move to and fit in Dallas, the higher I’ve gotten on his outlook for 2025. He’s the perfect X-receiver option to pair with CeeDee Lamb to maximize the All-Pro wideout presnap, and he’ll work well in his own right against man coverage on vertical, stop, and slant routes that have been missing from the outside receivers since Michael Gallup tore his ACL. As long as he’s fully locked in and engaged, which should not be an issue since he’s playing for a new contract in the best offensive ecosystem of his lifetime, he should have one of the more dynamic No. 2 receivers in the league this year."
Last year, Dallas threw the ball 637 times. Pittsburgh was at 499. The previous year, Dallas had 614 pass attempts, compared to Pittsburgh's 506. Over the last two years, Dallas has averaged 123 more pass attempts per season. In 2024, Dak Prescott had a 73.8% catchable ball rate. Russel Wilson was at 71.1%. However, the year before last, Prescott's catchable ball rate was 81.5%, which was first in the NFL. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh's 2023 starter, had a 71.6% catchable ball rate. Not only has Dallas had significantly higher volume, but the difference gets even larger when you consider how many of the passes are actually catchable.
From 2019 to 2024, Prescott's per-game average equates to 408 completions, 606 pass attempts, 4,618 passing yards, and 32 touchdowns. In 2023 and 2024 combined, Pittsburgh had 34 passing touchdowns. Prescott's per-game average almost equals that. In 2023, Prescott threw for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns. Last year, Joe Burrow threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns. Their offensive makeup is very similar.
Dallas Offense is the cheap version of the Cincinnati Bengals offense.
Dak Prescott = Joe Burrow
Jaydon Blue = Chase Brown
CeeDee Lamb = Ja’Marr Chase
George Pickens = Tee HigginsBoth super pass heavy. Both very consolidated. Both will score a ton of points.
— Rob (@RobLorge) May 7, 2025
Fantasy managers should want a piece of this offense, and Pickens comes at a reasonable price. Pickens can easily be a top-20, possibly even top-15 receiver this year. That may seem lofty, but it was just last year that Chase and Higgins both finished in the top five in half-PPR PPG.
Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers - WR46
If you were just to look at the Packers' passing stats from last year, it might be hard to talk yourself into one of their receivers, but it's important to remember that Jordan Love wasn't healthy all year. He sprained his MCL in Week 1, which caused him to miss two weeks. Then, in Week 8, Love sustained a hip sprain. He was never healthy, and it impacted their offense and how Matt LaFleur called his plays.
In 2023, the Packers had 581 pass attempts. They finished with 3,968 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. This past season, those numbers dipped to 479 pass attempts, 3,807 yards, and 28 touchdowns. You can see that the passing yards and touchdown numbers aren't all that different, but the volume dipped by over 100. His touchdown rate increased from 5.5% to 5.9% and his yards per attempt average went from 7.2 to 8.0.
Love's efficiency increased in some areas in his second season as a starter, which shouldn't be surprising. However, LaFleur protected Love by leaning on the running game. Don't be surprised if the Packers pass more this season. The Packers averaged a -4.5% pass rate over expectation, adjusted for situation and game script. That made them the third run-heaviest team in the NFL. However, in the previous season with Love, they were the fifth-most pass-heavy offense. Expect some regression to the mean this season.
The last time the Packers drafted a receiver in the first round before Golden was in 2002. Romeo Doubs is what he is. For his career, Doubs has averaged between 5.15-to-5.64 targets and 3.23-to-3.54 receptions per game. That's consistent. You know what you're getting, but he's not a No. 1 receiver. He's not a No. 2 receiver. He's a dependable No. 3. Christian Watson tore his ACL late last year and is expected to miss the first half of the year. Don't be surprised if, after the lackluster returns on Doubs, Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks, the Packers feature Golden in a way they didn't with the primary quartet they utilized last year.
cc @DavisMattek pic.twitter.com/z3vd6mquaX
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) August 3, 2025
We already started to see that on their Family Night game. Between Jayden Reed, Doubs, Watson, and Wicks, none of these guys have ever averaged 6.0 targets per game, which would result in 102 total targets over 17 games. Doubs, Watson, and Wicks are role players. Reed has legitimate talent and can be a difference-maker, but as evidenced by the tweet above and the team's utilization of him in his first two seasons, they view him as a slot receiver only. Not to mention, Reed was seen in a walking boot and Matt LaFleur said “they hope” he’s back for Week 1. In either case, there’s room here for an alpha.
Golden has the tools and the skills to be that player. Now, the Packers have generally used Doubs as their primary X-receiver with Reed in the slot and Wicks/Watson rotating as their flanker. Here's what Reception Perception's Matt Harmon had to say about Golden,
"In the NFL, I expect Golden to play as a primary flanker who moves into the slot off motion plays and can line up at X-receiver on vertical concepts. A primary flanker gig makes sense because Golden is at his best when working against zone coverage. His 82.5% success rate vs. zone coverage is a really nice result. When Golden can build up speed running routes to the intermediate and deep area of the field, he snaps off in and out-breaking routes with fire to create gobs of separation. Any coach off the McVay tree will absolutely love watching Golden run dig and post routes (80.6% and 77.3% success rates) against zone coverage. He gets wide open and is a dynamic threat on those patterns."
In Golden's Reception Perception profile, which you can read here, Harmon indicates that Golden's best position is at flanker, which is awesome because it fits Green Bay’s need, but he goes even further. He says, "Any coach off the McVay tree absolutely loves watching Golden run dig and post routes against zone coverage. He gets wide open and is a dynamic threat on those patterns." Where does LaFleur come from? That's right, Sean McVay.
Don't be surprised if Golden operates as Love's No. 1 receiver early. Some fantasy managers may have concerns with the whole "too many mouths to feed" mantra that we hear from time to time, but I wouldn't fret. Doubs and Wicks aren't mouths that need to be fed, not really. Golden is also not a receiver who needs a ton of volume to be effective. He can be a Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, or Jordan Addison-esque receiver who, because of their big-play ability and high level of efficiency, can be a top-20 receiver without having a ton of volume. Reed is already injured. He could have a huge rookie season brewing.
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR49
In the immediate aftermath of the 2025 NFL Draft, most viewed this landing spot for Egbuka as a negative. Make no mistake, there were better landing spots for Egbuka's 2025 prospects, but he's not dead, and his WR49 pricetag doesn't encompass his upside. Egbuka's case comes with so many different outs, and the upside of one of them hitting is well worth the price of admission.
Let's start with Chris Godwin. He's 29. He's torn his ACL in the past, and last year he suffered a dislocated ankle and a broken fibula in Week 7 of the 2024 season. He had another surgery on his ankle in July and still doesn't have a timetable. Given his age and injury, there's a chance that Godwin's play and effectiveness are negatively affected. If Godwin's ankle injury lingers or causes him to miss time, Egbuka would be in a great spot to provide value for fantasy managers.
Update on Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle) from @DanGrazianoESPN.
Also, noting #Buccaneers were in 3-WR on 71% of their snaps last season, tied for 8th-most in NFL. Some room to rise there, ATL led at 88%. pic.twitter.com/AIDcmx8VV0
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 4, 2025
Then there's Mike Evans. He hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, but he'll turn 32 later this month. You never know when a player hits the age cliff and starts declining. Sometimes that process happens gradually, and other times, it's like they fall off a cliff. Evans has been relatively durable throughout his career, but he has had multiple documented hamstring strains.
In 2015, he pulled his hamstring in the preseason and missed the final two games of the preseason, as well as the first week of the regular season. In 2019, he sprained his hamstring again and missed the remainder of the season. He experienced another hamstring sprain before Week 1 in 2020. He played through it, but had just one catch for two yards, albeit a touchdown. He suffered another hamstring sprain in Week 15 of the 2021 season. He missed the following week.
Prior to the 2022 season, Evans dealt with a hamstring sprain throughout the preseason, but it didn't cause him to miss any regular-season games. He sprained his hamstring again in 2023 during a Week 4 game. He returned to action in Week 6. Then, just last year, he suffered another hamstring injury, which caused him to miss three games. That is seven documented hamstring injuries, and he's now going into his age-32 season.
If Godwin or Evans gets hurt (Godwin isn't 100% right now and his Week 1 status is very much up in the air) or if either of them begins to decline, Egbuka will be ready to step right into an offense that has the sixth-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns the past two seasons. Even if neither of those things happens, this offense and Egbuka's talent should be enough for him to excel and become a quality bench player with significant upside.
REMINDER:
Emeka Egbuka had a higher career YPRR (2.61) & best-season YPRR (3.01) than both Travis Hunter & Tetairoa McMillan.
Hype is deserved ‼️ pic.twitter.com/0gybVt4rKG
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFFWrld) July 26, 2025
It doesn't hurt that Egbuka can play. He was a first-round pick for a reason. As a sophomore, he had 74 receptions, 1,151 yards, and 10 touchdowns despite playing second-fiddle to elite prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. Then, this past season, despite playing with generational prospect Jeremiah Smith, Egbuka still had 81 receptions, 1,011 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He's very used to playing next to elite players, and he's more than held his own.
As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.
More Fantasy Football Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
