2025 NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Biggest Winners and Disappointments at Every Fantasy Football Position

March 15, 2025

Discover the top winners and biggest disappointments from the 2025 NFL free-agency period, with key takeaways at every fantasy football position (QB, RB, WR, TE).

NFL franchises will have an opportunity to reshape their rosters before the draft. Fantasy managers will have a chance to read the tea leaves and make measured strikes against their fantasy football opposition ahead of rookie drafts. Savvy managers will use this period to try to get the best return on some previous investments, as others will be caught up in the new faces in new places vortex.

There are no days off in fantasy. Competent fantasy managers must attempt to project the market, and the NFL free-agency period is one of a few opportunities to capitalize on the offseason hype.

That said, here are some of the players who helped their fantasy value and some who hurt their value early on during the free-agency frenzy.

Quarterback

Winner – Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels isn't technically a free-agency winner. But, with the moves the Commanders made via trades before and during the free-agency frenzy, you have to include him on any list.

First, Washington added Deebo Samuel Sr., who has led the NFL in yards after the catch per reception in each of the last four seasons. Samuel will be integrated into an offense that called screen passes on 16.1 percent of its play calls a season ago. Samuel himself comes from an offense that dialed up design touches for him 25 percent of the time, adding to those impressive yards after the catch numbers.

Second, the Commanders traded a 2025 third, a 2025 seventh, a 2026 second, and a 2026 fourth-round selection to solidify their left tackle position, acquiring Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil from the Houston Texans. Over the last three seasons, only Tristan Wirfs allowed a lower pressure rate among starting left tackles than Tunsil's 3.1 percent.

Laremy Tunsil has been INCREDIBLE

his rank in pressure rate allowed among LTs with at least 75 pass blocking snaps/yr:

2024: #2 of 56 (2.9%)
2023: #4 of 54 (3.9%)
2022: #2 of 51 (2.6%)

All 3 years combined?

#2 of 44 (3.1%) LTs with 400+ pass blocking snaps

behind only…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 10, 2025

Winner – J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy already won when Sam Darnold left, but what Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has done during this free-agency period has been nothing short of impressive, from re-signing Aaron Jones to revamping the Vikings defense with the additions of Byron Murphy Jr. and Jonathan Allen.

The two most significant acquisitions occurred along the offensive line for McCarthy and the Vikings, where they signed a pair of Colts in Will Fries and Ryan Kelly.

When you have your quarterback on a rookie deal, you can build around him. Last season, Darnold had plenty of time to throw the ball; this year, McCarthy should have even more time to aid in his development.

Winner – Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

After receiving the David Carr treatment last season, Chicago knew it needed to protect its franchise quarterback better than it had in 2024. In 2024, Caleb Williams was sacked a league-high 68 times, accounting for 466 sack yards.

Caleb Williams was sacked a league-high 68 TIMES last year.

The Bears have had enough 🤣pic.twitter.com/fUn30yByFV

— DraftKings Network (@DKNetwork) March 5, 2025

Chicago rebuilt the entire interior of the offensive line, adding guards Joe Thuney (Chiefs), Jonah Jackson (Rams), and center Drew Dalman (Falcons). Despite being limited to nine contests due to injury, Dalman was regarded as a top-5 player at his position, having allowed just a pair of sacks and 10 pressures in 2024.

Loser – Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

It's excellent having Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw the ball to next season. However, Smith-Njigba isn't Justin Jefferson, at least not yet. More damning for Darnold, who is the second option in the passing game going to be? Jake Bobo is next on the depth chart, which is a considerable drop-off in talent compared to Jordan Addison or even T.J. Hockenson.

Darnold had the ninth-best pass protection in Minnesota, allowing him 2.86 seconds on average to throw, the second most. Meanwhile, Geno Smith averaged just 2.55 seconds to throw in Seattle while being pressured at a higher rate thanks to Seattle's 27th-ranked pass protection. Smith was pressured on 38.5 percent of his dropbacks in 2024.

Key metrics for the Sam Darnold v Geno Smith debate per @FantasyPtsData

*2024 season, among 31 qual. QBs

Darnold:
2.86 avg time to throw (2nd-most)
2.70 avg time to pressure (2nd-most)
5 sacks that were his fault (5th-most)
9th best pass protection*

Geno:
2.55 avg time to… https://t.co/9kXquOmkPn

— Sam Schwartz (@samschwartz71) March 8, 2025

It's a good thing Darnold secured that bag because there could be some ghost sightings in the Pacific Northwest.

Loser – C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

If Daniels is a winner after the acquisition of Tunsil, then C.J. Stroud has to be considered one of the biggest losers early on. Only Joe Burrow was hit more times last season than the 109 hits in which Stroud would suffer, and that was with Tunsil anchoring the line. When looking at the worst offensive line sack EPA in 2024, only the Browns, Bears, and Patriots were worse than the Texans.

If Tunsil's departure wasn't bad enough, Stroud will have to do his best to impersonate Jon Snow, as the Texans weren't done there. On Day 2 of the legal tampering period, Houston shipped off starting guard Kenyon Green to Philadelphia. Some may say Green's exit is addition through subtraction, but it's hard to get excited about Stroud's fantasy projections.

The only QB that was hit more times than C.J. Stroud last season (109 Hits Taken) was Joe Burrow (122 Hits Taken) ⚠️

Stroud just lost his best OL in Laremy Tunsil https://t.co/yEh8H1zgn6 pic.twitter.com/lSX38wXJxI

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) March 10, 2025

 Name to Watch - Justin Fields, New York Jets

Justin Fields was looking for a place that would allow him to start after relinquishing his starting position to Russell Wilson last season. This is despite throwing for 1,106 passing yards and throwing five touchdowns to just one interception while adding 231 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns.

It's easy to dismiss Fields as a poor quarterback, but he is fantasy gold. In 24 career starts, Fields has finished as a top-5 quarterback option in 11 of those contests. Fields and his 2,509 rushing yards are the 23rd most all-time at the position. Run some RPO with Breece Hall and a deep threat like Garrett Wilson and Fields could be a top-12 fantasy option next season.

Running Backs

Winner – Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Anytime an aging running back can ink a two-year deal worth $20 million with $13 million guaranteed, that’s winning.
Last season, Jones rushed for 1,138 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. While the 4.5 yards per carry was the lowest average of his career, the 255 rushing attempts were his highest.

Factor in the 51 receptions, and Jones was an integral part of this Vikings offense. Not only is J.J. McCarthy excited to play behind Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, but beefing up one of the already elite offensive lines can only benefit Jones for the next two seasons.

Winner – Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers

The biggest winner in 2025 free agency is Najee Harris, who inked a one-year, $9.25 million deal to be the lead back for Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers. Not only is Harris getting paid, but his deal makes him the fifth-highest-paid running back for 2025, and the landing spot is perfect for his fantasy prospects.

Since entering the league in 2021, Harris has produced four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, making him one of just five running backs to hit the century mark in their first four seasons. Still not impressed? Harris has also earned 1,277 touches, fumbling the ball on just five occasions.

Harris perfectly complements what Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to do in Los Angeles. Harris doesn't even get the credit he deserves for last season, where he ranked 11th in missed tackles forced per touch (0.20) and 16th with a 5.0 percent explosive play rate.

Los Angeles is the best offensive line Harris has had in his career. Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson, Trey Pipkins III, and Bradley Bozeman helped orchestrate J.K. Dobbins' return to prominence.

Loser – Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Regardless of whomever the Dallas Cowboys were going to sign in free agency, the league believes they would address the position in the 2025 NFL Draft. Javonte Williams was a once-promising talent, but a devastating knee injury may have robbed fantasy managers of what could have been. 

Last season, Rico Dowdle averaged 4.6 yards per carry on his way to posting his first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. Dowdle also contributed to the passing game by catching 39 passes. It's hard to imagine Williams topping that production, considering both Jaleel McLaughlin (4.7) and Audric Estime (3.8) averaged more yards per carry than Williams' 3.2. Regardless of this signing, there will be an open competition for the lead-back role, considering 23 percent of Williams' runs were stuffed for no gain.

Javonte Williams was clearly the worst RB on the Broncos to close the season:

Javonte: 3.2 YPC, 27% success
Jaleel: 4.7 YPC, 45% success
Estime: 3.8 YPC, 37% success

23% of Javonte's runs were stuffed for no gain

new Cowboys RB will likely be lapped by any decent RB they draft

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 10, 2025

Williams signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Cowboys, but it is far from guaranteed, and he could still be cut before Week 1.

Name to Watch - Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers

I'm not going to lie: The signing of Rico Dowdle in Carolina is a nice, low-key move. Back in November, Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL for the second time in 13 months in a contest against the Eagles. The recovery period from an ACL injury ranges from nine to 12 months, putting his return date around December after having surgery in January of this year.

As good as Chuba Hubbard was for the Panthers, they did need to add another back. The news that Dowdle is on a one-year deal is excellent news for Hubbard, and the better news is that it likely means the Panthers are less likely to draft a running back within the first four rounds of this year's draft.

Why is Dowdle a back to watch? For starters, 51 percent of his carries went for more than three yards after contact. Dowdle averaged 4.6 yards per carry a season ago, finishing with 1,079 rushing yards and 1,328 total yards. From Week 12 on, Dowdle led the league in yards after contact (498), was fourth in rushing yards (677), was fifth in explosive runs (17), and was sixth in forced missed tackles (26).

Dowdle is in Carolina to complement Hubbard and will likely be earning a 40-45 percent opportunity share. However, if anything were to happen to Hubbard, Dowdle could insert himself as a borderline RB1 based on the 96.4 fantasy points he accumulated between Week 12 and Week 18.

Cowboys fans, turn away. Dowdle's base salary of $3 million is the same as what Dallas will pay Williams in 2025.

Wide Receivers

Winner – Joshua Palmer, Buffalo Bills

In signing Joshua Palmer, Josh Allen now has one of the best wide receivers when it comes to separation in the NFL. Palmer ranked 10th of 160 qualifying receivers in route win rate last year.

To put that into perspective, Amari Cooper was the top separator on the Bills, and he ranked 61st. Against man coverage, Keon Coleman ranked 54th of 131 qualifying receivers, 46 spots behind the eighth-ranked Palmer.

Josh Palmer gives the Bills a much-needed weapon vs. man coverage.

BUF's Average Separation Score ranks against man among 131 qualifying players:

Josh Palmer: 8th-best

Keon Coleman: 54th
Mack Hollins: 71st
Khalil Shakir: 82nd
Dalton Kincaid: 86th pic.twitter.com/DCVIuTL41K

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 10, 2025

Palmer's best football lies ahead of him. As for the Bills, if they have Super Bowl aspirations, they understand that all roads eventually lead to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Over Palmer's last three seasons (six games), the newest Bill had 32 receptions for 438 receiving yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs.

Winner – Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Garrett Wilson welcomes a familiar face to New York after the signing of Justin Fields, whom he spent some time with during their Ohio State days. Those who are worried about Wilson's perceived fantasy value, don't.

Fields has shown that he isn't afraid to take shots down the field. In 2023, DJ Moore averaged 27.7 deep receiving yards per game, which was the eighth most. In six weeks with the Steelers last season, George Pickens led the NFL, averaging 33.0 deep yards per game.

Those looking to make this a positive for Garrett Wilson should start here.

Fields is more willing to chuck it than any QB he's played with.

Deep receiving YPG:

D.J. Moore [2023]: 27.7 (~WR8)

George Pickens [2024 Weeks 1-6]: 33.0 (~WR1)

Garrett Wilson [2023-24]: 12.1 (~WR47) https://t.co/Fi66TRpfcH

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 10, 2025

Last season, Wilson ranked 12th in Average Separation Score against man coverage, per Fantasy Points Data, registering a score of 0.152. When it came to quarterbacks connecting on those deep throws versus man coverage, Aaron Rodgers ranked 34th with a hit rate of 12.4 percent. Fields led all quarterbacks in connecting at a 22.5 percent hit rate.

Loser – Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Reports had the New England Patriots offering more money for Chris Godwin's services. However, the Buccaneers receiver decided to take less to run it back in Tampa for an additional three seasons. If you are a Jalen McMillan manager, that is unfortunate news.

During the first six weeks of the 2024 season, Godwin led the NFL in receptions (43) and yards after the catch (335). Godwin would also have the second-most receiving yards over expected (+34), the most yards after the catch over expected (+112), and third-most total receiving yards with 511.

As good as McMillan was to close out the 2024 campaign, it will be hard to duplicate that kind of production without a Mike Evans or Godwin injury.

Loser – George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

When the dust settles, where does the signing of DK Metcalf leave George Pickens? Metcalf signed a whopping five-year, $150 million extension with the Steelers after coming over from the Seahawks earlier this week via trade.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has historically been able to keep his diva wide receivers in check, but it's becoming increasingly more difficult when talking about Pickens, whose act may have grown old.

Let's talk about what Metcalf means for Pickens. Metcalf is one of 31 receivers to record more than 6,000 receiving yards before his 28th birthday. The list of receivers to accomplish this is the who's who of the position, with many on the list already included in the Hall of Fame or will be recognized soon after their careers conclude.

Metcalf and Pickens are known vertical threats, with Metcalf having a little more juice than Pickens, who is in the final year of his rookie deal.

From a fantasy perspective, considering the likelihood of the passing volume, it's hard to envision Metcalf being more than a WR2 and Pickens' role being pushed into the WR3 range.

Name to Watch - Dyami Brown, Jacksonville Jaguars

With the addition of Deebo Samuel Sr. in Washington, Dyami Brown knew his role was going to change if he would have remained. Brown signed a one-year, $10 million deal to take his talents down to Duval County for the 2025 season to play opposite Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas will get all the attention, and rightfully so, which could make Brown a sneaky weekly play for fantasy managers.

Brown earned his money during the Commanders' playoff run, averaging 76.3 yards per contest. With Liam Coen calling the shots in Jacksonville, expect Brown to be dialed up not only with deep shots but also have some manufactured touches in the screen game to take advantage of his 7.6 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked eighth in the league a season ago.

Moving on from Jayden Daniels is not ideal, but landing with Trevor Lawrence is a nice consolation.

Dyami Brown pic.twitter.com/55wTaAcLrs

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 11, 2025

Tight Ends

Winner – Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars decided to release Evan Engram and put their faith in Brenton Strange at the tight-end position. Since the start of free agency, the Jaguars added Hunter Long and Johnny Mundt to the tight-end room, who are not exactly players who will threaten Strange's role.

With Engram missing time due to injury last season, Strange put together a promising stat line, finishing the season with 40 receptions and 411 receiving yards. Strange also finished the season with a 75.5 percent catch rate, averaging 4.7 yards after the catch and 10.3 yards per reception.

As promised, Brenton Strange content!!!

Brenton Strange tied Brian Thomas Jr with 9 missed tackles, leading #Jaguars WR/TEs.

Full story: https://t.co/26gUzKFloI pic.twitter.com/sriU4OoAXI

— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) March 10, 2025

Winner – Evan Engram, Denver Broncos

One of the teams desperate to find tight-end help this offseason was the Denver Broncos after being forced to deploy the likes of Adam Trautman, Greg Dulcich, Lucas Krull, and Nate Adkins. Denver was a likely destination for Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland before signing Evan Engram to a two-year deal worth $23 million.

For Engram, he gets an offensive-minded head coach who has found success with multiple tight ends in his offensive scheme; Sean Payton has found himself a "joker."

Engram also inherits a young quarterback entering his second season. Let's not forget that Javonte Williams, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, and Devaughn Vele accounted for 223 targets last season. Courtland Sutton may be Bo Nix's favorite target, but Nix will be looking in Engram's direction in 2025.

The bottom line is that Engram is set to have a bigger role competing for targets with Sutton than losing targets to Brian Thomas Jr. Engram should be locked in as a top-10 fantasy option for the next two seasons among his tight-end peers.

Loser – Fantasy Managers

The tight-end market was an empty cupboard this offseason. Before Engram signed with the Broncos, we saw Zach Ertz, Juwan Johnson, and Mike Gesicki all re-upped with their respective clubs. 

It's hard to imagine fantasy enthusiasts getting excited over Tyler Conklin, Mo Alie-Cox, or Gerald Everett, who happen to top the list of remaining free agents. For those looking to upgrade their tight-end position, the NFL Draft is the only place a franchise can find something other than a depth piece to fill the void.

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