RADIO
Jarod's 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers for stolen bases (SB) based on speed surges in September. Targets these steals sleepers for fantasy baseball drafts.
With the rule changes in 2023, MLB teams as a whole and certain players in particular have been more apt to swipe a bag. Here, we'll take an in-depth look at three hitters who took a step forward in their speed numbers in September, hoping to provide us with a glimpse of what 2025 could bring for our fantasy teams while providing us value in drafts.
I chose to look at this from a stolen base per plate appearance (SB/PA) perspective because not all players had the same amount of opportunities for steals throughout the season based on injuries or playing time, so the ratio provides an even comparison. Sure, some guys stole more bases than the players we talk about below, but the purpose of this exercise is to see who kicked their stolen-base production into high gear late in the season.
The below table shows who had the most steals in September, along with their season total (left), but also which players had the biggest increase in SB/PA in September compared to their SB/PA through the end of August (right). Without further ado, let's see who is going to provide more SB production than expected in 2025!
Victor Robles, Seattle Mariners
September stats: .389/.465/.528, 13 SB, .148 SB/PA
Victor Robles has always had the talent, debuting in the majors as a 20-year-old back in 2017 and finishing 2019 as the fourth-ranked prospect in all of baseball while recording a .302/.393/.468 career slash line in the minors.
He just hasn't been able to put it all together in the big leagues. The Dominican came up with the Nationals, but after several years of not living up to the promise, Washington released its former top prospect, and it might have been just what he needed.
You know what they say, maybe he just needed a change of scenery. A chance to prove your worth with a new club can be invigorating and a new coaching staff could alter the mindset or change the approach at the plate, cutting ties with the old ways that weren't working.
That's seemingly what happened with Robles. He signed on with the Mariners in late May and began hitting as soon as he was allowed to do so, batting .316 (6-for-19) in June, but with just one stolen base.
Then he took it up a notch, proceeding to hit .375 in July with eight steals, and although the BA took a dip to .244 in August, Robles stole eight more bases. The season culminated with him running wild in the final month, swiping 13 bags while also batting .389, adding 11 RBI and 21 runs scored to boot.
He finished with 34 steals in 295 plate appearances, which was the second-highest SB/PA in all of baseball behind only stolen-base specialist Dairon Blanco (31 SB in 132 PA).
That's right, a better rate than Elly De La Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, and Brice Turang, the base stealers with the three highest SB totals in 2024.
Given 600 PA, that'd put him on pace for over 60 stolen bases! The problem is that he's logged over 600 PA only once in his career (2019) and no more than 407 in any other season.
🚨 Late-round steals (literally)
Don’t sleep on these speedsters per @ATCProjections:
-Brice Turang (38 SB) - 135 ADP #thisismycrew
-Victor Robles (40 SB) - 190 ADP #TridentsUp
-Jake McCarthy (28 SB) - 225 ADP #DBacks
All outside the top 130 on @TheReal_NFC 👀#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/NOhyF9IueV— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 24, 2025
But at 27 years old, Robles is now in his prime, so if you're looking for steals late in a draft, why not take a chance on a player who was once heralded as a five-tool prospect? It shouldn't take much to outproduce his current NFBC ADP of 198 overall anyway.
With his basement-dwelling barrel and hard-hit rates, it seems we'll never see the power tool -- although he did lace 10 doubles last September, too -- but he should add plenty of runs scored and may surprise in the BA department, having set a career-low K% of 18.0 percent last season as well.
Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins
September stats: .305/.389/.402, 6 SB, .063 SB/PA
On the other end of the power spectrum, sitting opposite Victor Robles, is Jesus Sanchez, with some of the loudest contact in the game. Sanchez boasted 93rd-percentile average exit velocity and 95th-percentile hard-hit% last season, coming in at 92.5 mph and 51.3 percent, respectively.
Sanchez had one of the top-10 hardest-hit balls in 2024, a double registering at 117.2 mph, and had the longest home run of the year, measuring 480 feet.
480! pic.twitter.com/PGL2xdHlH1
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) August 6, 2024
But last September he also showed off his wheels, stealing six bases during the month. It's not the six steals alone that put him on this list -- many others had more -- rather, it was the pace that warranted a closer look.
The 10 bases he stole and the .022 SB/PA pace through the end of August were already career bests after not having swiped any more than three bags in a single season before 2024, but the pace nearly tripled in September, logging a .063 SB/PA during the month and finishing with 16 steals on the year.
Still haven't sold you? Well, he hit .305 in the final month as well, so if he can take that approach that made him so successful in the final month, work on and refine it in the offseason, perhaps he can carry all of that momentum into 2025.
He hit .252 overall, which doesn't sound great, but believe it or not, it was solidly higher than the major league average of .243. And he recorded an xBA of .264 with an xwOBA of .350.
The astronomical chase rates are tough to look at, and while he strikes out a ton, he's managed to lower his K% every year since his debut in the majors -- four consecutive years now -- from 37.9 percent to 26.1 percent.
He can't hit lefties, you say? When given a longer leash in September, he fared much better than in prior months, hitting .128 (10-for-78) through August versus .259 (7-for-30) in September. Although he lacks power against lefties, if he gets additional opportunities, then the counting stats should get a boost.
All of this is the long way of saying that there's hope he could be a 20/20 player, if given ample playing time, who will cost you next to nothing in drafts.
According to RosterResource, Sanchez is not forecast for a platoon situation; however, if he remains in a platoon to begin the season or if he isn't having the same success early on as we saw in September, you can bench or cut him, and not feel bad about it because you didn't use lots of draft capital on him.
Update: Sanchez suffered an oblique strain March 13, which is expected to keep him out at least four weeks, meaning he will begin the season on the IL and won't return until mid April at the earliest, but potentially until May
Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals
September stats: .204/.282/.286, 11 SB, .100 SB/PA
If you were simply looking at Dylan Crews' batting average of .218 and OBP of .288 as a measuring stick for how his 31-game MLB debut went, then you'd be misled. First off, Crews' xBA was .253 and his xwOBA was .325, which paints a much rosier picture of how things should have gone.
Those two data points alone aren't highly predictive of future performance, although xwOBA is better at it than xBA. When you start to dig around and look at other stats, they begin to reinforce that we have, at the very least, a solid major-league hitter on our hands.
The former second overall draft pick registered a hard-hit% of 44.7 percent, which would have put him just outside the top quartile in the sport. The chase rate of 26.6 percent was better than average, as was the 19.7 percent strikeout rate, while his walk rate was average at 8.3 percent.
Not too shabby for someone getting their first taste of major league pitching. Things can go a lot worse during your first stint in the majors, just ask last year's top prospect, Jackson Holliday.
These skills that Crews put on display were also attributes that he exhibited in the minors. When the youngster made the leap from Double-A to Triple-A, we watched as his K% went from 23.7 percent to 17.6 percent and his BB% went from 7.6 percent to 8.4 percent. His ISO also went from .170 to .190.
Yet, we haven't even mentioned his stolen-base acumen, which is why he's here in this article. The diminutive speedster clocked in at a 29.3 feet/second sprint speed last season, good for the 93rd percentile.
He stole 25 bags in 100 minor league games last season and added 12 more in the majors, with 11 of them coming in September alone. That was the fifth-most steals in MLB during September last year.
And that was with an OBP of .282! Think about what he could do with a full season of plate appearances with even an average OBP of .312.
Dylan Crews with a productive 1st inning for the @Nationals:
🔴 Infield single
🔴 Stolen base
🔴 Moves to third on fly out
🔴 Scores on a double pic.twitter.com/KiRJdYOXcL— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 5, 2024
2025 ATC projections forecast him for 28 SB in 574 PA, a .049 SB/PA, but if he can get closer to .059, which was what the likes of Maikel Garcia and Lane Thomas were able to do last season, that would get him closer to 34 SB. If he can amass over 650 plate appearances, now you're talking closer to 40 SB.
There may be some bumps along the way, but Crews has the talent and the speed to outperform his current ADP of 138 overall, so draft him with confidence.
Honorable Mentions
Jasson Dominguez, New York Yankees
Five steals in September with a .192 BA because he was still able to get on base via the walk, posting a 17.5 percent walk rate during the month.
The 21-year-old had a career 13.0 percent BB% in 1,565 PA, so the keen eye is legit. He also stole 77 bases in the minors between 2022 and 2023, so the stolen-base prowess is legit, too.
Wyatt Langford, Leody Taveras, Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
Outside of Adolis Garcia, the Rangers outfield can be dangerous on the basepaths.
Wyatt Langford is on the table at the top of the page after stealing seven bases in September, which was the second time he achieved that threshold during a month last season, but underperformed for much of the year. If he takes a step forward in 2025, so will his SB total.
Leody Taveras is higher in the table than Langford, though, as he had the fourth-highest change in SB/PA in September as compared to earlier in the season. He finished with 23 SBs, but if he finds a way to be an everyday player, the SBs should pile up.
Speaking of everyday players, Evan Carter will be given a shot at an everyday role, and he stole at least 22 bases in the minors every season from 2021 to 2023. He added three SBs in the 2023 postseason for the Rangers, so don't sleep on his ability just because he missed most of last year.
Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
This was an interesting name to pop up in this list, but if we're looking for SB sleepers, then Story should certainly qualify.
The veteran stole 20 bags as recently as 2021, but with injuries costing him much of the last three seasons, he's yet to take full advantage of the recent rule changes that have made it easier to steal bases the last couple of seasons.
Sure, he's a few years older now, but at 32 years old, he's not ancient. If he can somehow, some way, find a way to stay on the field this season, he could be a sleeper source of steals.
Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers
Mitchell also made our list above, logging five steals in September and 11 on the year. He also belted four home runs in September, along with three doubles and two triples.
So, if you're looking for someone with both speed and pop that will cost you next to nothing, Mitchell -- with his 95th-percentile sprint speed and career barrel rate in the big leagues of 9.5 percent -- could be your guy.
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