RADIO
After a couple of weeks of less-than-spectacular field, the best in the world (less THE Best) are back in action and set to take the famed Quail Hollow Club for the latest installment of the $20M purse Signature Events Series. Quail Hollow will provide a Championship-worthy test as this event routinely plays difficult and has made the Wells Fargo Championship a consistent, reliable event in the middle season to prep players for upcoming Majors.
A recent list of high-profile winners that will be returning this week have only heightened the excitement. Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, and Rory McIlory have won in recent years, creating the narrative that this tournament is one where the creme rises to the top. Power is rewarded, but you have to pair it with exacting mid-iron play to succeed here, making it somewhat challenging to find the perfect well-rounded player fit.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why.
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#10. Viktor Hovland
Concerns are rampant and warranted. We have only seen Viktor Hovland play 36 holes of professional golf in the last two months. It's by far the least amount of reps of any player in the field. After his poor missed cut at The Masters, Hovland was open about his current level of frustration and lack of confidence in his game.
One thing we know about Hovland is that when things are off, he likes to disappear and figure it out in the dirt. I'm somewhat optimistic that we see are more refined version of himself at Quail Hollow. He's an incredible long-term data fit for this golf course and he finished third here in his debut in 2021. Hovland needs a good week to kick start his season and give him some positive energy heading into the PGA Championship.
Why change what was working?
According to Viktor Hovland, what was working in the short term likely wouldn't have for much longer. 👀
Read more: https://t.co/IUlcBHBqSU pic.twitter.com/5QR0rH84mr
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) April 9, 2024
#9. Justin Thomas
Let's talk about another player that desperately needs some positive vibes this week. In 2017. when Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, it seemed like the tipping point that was going to be the spark for an incredible run from JT Thomas is looking to build on a T5 finish at the RBC Heritage just three weeks ago, his best finish in nearly four months of play.
He's a huge fan of this course after capturing the PGA and also winning the 2022 Presidents Cup here. Thomas said, “I always love being back here, it’s a place that has a lot of memories…I love Charlotte and I love the golf course.” He could be a popular pick when the odds drop Monday Morning in the outright markets.
#8. Sahith Theegala
Sahith Theegala has arrived and is eagerly awaiting the Signature victory that will catapult him into another stratosphere, becoming one of the favorites to win any week. It was a disappointing 56th place at this event last year for Theegala, but that was a different time in his career. He seemed really bound to a positive course fit last year, but now it feels like he has the game to win anytime, anywhere.
Theegala will tee it up this week on the heels of a 2nd place finish at the RBC Heritage, his third top-10 result in his last six starts. He has taken a huge leap forward in his approach play this season, an area that was not previously a strength. His career arc reminds me a lot of Wyndham Clark two years ago, he just needs to find a big-time win to find his confidence on the grand stages.
#7. Tommy Fleetwood
It has been an interesting month for Tommy Fleetwood. After The PLAYERS in March, he parted ways for the time being with his caddie Ian Finnis as he dealt with some serious health issues. Thankfully, Finnis is on the mend after recently having successful open heart surgery. He was noticeably struggling in Ponte Vedra, so this is great news that Team Fleetwood was hopeful for.
Wonderful news to see Tommy Fleetwood’s caddie Ian Finnis on the mend after open heart surgery ❤️ pic.twitter.com/bWGgir6iS8
— Joe I (@TourPicks) April 30, 2024
Fleetwood has held down the fort though. He made a Sunday charge alongside a local caddie from Augusta to finish T3 at The Masters. He's been extremely inconsistent week-to-week with his approach numbers this season and will need to clean that up to compete this week. He managed a top-5 at the 2023 Wells Fargo and could better that this week if he can straighten out the long irons.
#6. Hideki Matsuyama
There are only a small handful of players that have played better in their last five starts than Hideki Matsuyama. For the first time since his win earlier this season at the Genesis Invitational, Matsuyama slipped up with his irons at Augusta National. Before that, he had been putting on a Ballstriking clinic, hitting greens with surgical precision. Look at these numbers over his last five starts!
For a player of his caliber, it's a bit strange that Matsuyama hasn't elected to play in this event in previous years. He did finish T5 at the 2017 PGA Championship but has skipped this tournament each of the last four seasons. He's essentially had a month off since The Masters to re-dial in his iron play which should be a huge bonus for him this week if he wants to contend.
#5. Max Homa
There is no doubt that you will see Max Homa in the great Joe Nicely's Horse for the Course article later this week on Rotoballer.com. Homa should own real estate in Charlotte, NC after winning this event in 2019 and then finishing 8th in the 2023 edition of the Wells Fargo Championship.
He should be full of confidence and riding a high into this week after his best Major Championship performance of his career with a T3 at the Masters. Homa got off to a rather slow start this season but is starting to round into form at the perfect time. He's gained strokes on both Approach and putting in five of his last six starts. If he can have a positive week with both of those elements at Quail Hollow, I would expect him to once again have a chance at hoisting up this trophy on Sunday.
#4. Wyndham Clark
He's the defending champion and ready to once again tackle a golf course that looks like it was curated specifically to fit his skill set. We're of course talking about the powerhouse that is Wyndham Clark. Clark is the current #3 ranked player in the world, and had it not been for an insane Scottie Scheffler two-month run, Clark could have notched a couple more wins under his belt.
He probably doesn't get enough credit for what a prodigious bomber he is. When I was at The PLAYERS, he ranked first on the driving range in longest drive of the week, average ball speed, and clubhead speed. It's likely due to how well he often plays in other areas of his game. We know Clark can get a red-hot putter from the 10-15 range and the vast improvement in consistency with his Approach play is what shifted his career trajectory before he won here last season.
#3. Xander Schauffele
Nobody has been knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door this season quite like Xander Schauffele. He's posted a ridiculous seven top-10 finishes in 2024 and has been lingering around leaderboards for far too long without achieving a victory. He played in the final pairing last season with Clark here but was unable to keep up with him on Sunday en route to a familiar second-place finishing result.
At times it often feels like Schauffele has zero weaknesses. His recent run with the putter is one of the best in his career, and he's long overdue to cash that in for a victory. My gut tells me this could finally be the week where Schauffele cashes in on his great run of form and finally gets back into the winning circle. Course fit, form fit...it's time!
#2. Rory McIlroy
Fading Rory McIlroy the week after he achieves a victory is probably not the wisest move, but it may come as a surprise that he's not ranked #1 this week. McIlroy carried Shane Lowry alongside him to victory in the team event two weeks ago at the Zurich, creating a viral moment when he brought out the "Just a small town girl" on the stage post-victory. It was great to see Rory back to having fun!
McIlroy is also a 2-time champion of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He won here most recently in 2021 but also won the 2015 edition at Quail Hollow by seven strokes. He's a proper long and short-term course fit, but my gut just tells me that he has his sights on a bigger prize the following week. There's one other player that I just could not pass up this week, however, it would shock no one to see McIlroy conquer this tournament again!
Rounds of 62 or less at Quail Hollow ✍🏼
Rory McIlroy: 2
Rest of the world: 1 pic.twitter.com/FFV23OKIrC— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) August 8, 2017
#1. Ludvig Aberg
Here's the thing, I know McIlroy is a near lock to play well at Quail Hollow, but both my heart and my mind have penciled in Ludvig Aberg to win this tournament for months. The golf course profiles perfectly for his game. It consistently rewards players who can dominate off the tee box and leverage their prowess to hit it long and straight. Nobody does it quite like Aberg when it comes down to long and straight.
Aberg ranks #1 in strokes gained OTT in his last 30 rounds by a mile. His ability to hole putts is vastly underrated, as he ranks 2nd in that category as well. The confidence should be beaming after a 2nd place debutant finish at Augusta National where he flashed that million-dollar smile and charisma. I firmly believe the summer of Ludvig Aberg is happening in 2024, and this week is step #1 in his quest for domination! Ludvig Aberg is my #1 ranked player.
Best of luck this week RotoBaller family!
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