RADIO
The Florida swing on the PGA Tour Schedule is in the books and behind us, as we watched the rather underdramatized conclusion of the Valspar Championship which honestly felt like a bit of a come-down from the high that was THE PLAYERS. All roads lead to Texas and Memorial Park golf course which was designed by Tom Doak and remains one of the best value public courses to host a PGA Tour event every year.
This tournament got an added shot of adrenaline when the best player on planet Earth, Scottie Scheffler, committed early to this event. He's now going for the hat trick (three wins in a row), and despite a few other players near the top that are playing well, he'll once again be the prohibitive favorite and may be less than +500 on the oddsboard.
I hope that these rankings have become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and expected results, in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support, and good luck. Let's get this started!
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#10. Jake Knapp
The California-blonde locks are making their way to Texas and the fans at Memorial Park will be excited to catch a glimpse of the smooth-swinging Jake Knapp. Anytime a player can win at the Mexico Open, but also perform awesome at PGA National and Torrey Pines, it makes it difficult to pigeon-hole a course fit.
Maybe he is just that good. His confidence is certainly at an all-time high after winning a few weeks ago and then receiving high praise from Rory McIlroy. Knapp possesses effortless power, a skill that is shared by many of the former champions at Memorial Park. It will be fun to see if he can continue his great run.
Jake Knapp’s swing on repeat 🔁
Enjoy. pic.twitter.com/QlxnwbNUWK
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 16, 2024
#9. Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim has grinded his way into becoming one of the most accurate players off the tee in all of professional golf. He's been hitting 70% of fairways over his last 24 rounds which is a good 10% better than the tour average, but is still maintaining a respectable 169 mph ball speed on average.
Kim finished in a tie for sixth place at THE PLAYERS and once again flashed signs of brilliance around Pete Dye's famed track in Northeast Florida. In all typically hinges on the Putter and a dash of much-needed patience for Si Woo Kim. If he can continue to pound fairways, this should be just the type of event where he looks to capitalize.
#8. Tom Hoge
There is one player who has been statistically the best iron player in the world for the past six months and his name is NOT Scottie Scheffler. I'm of course talking about Thomas Hoge! He has now gained strokes on Approach in fourteen consecutive starts on the PGA Tour which is quite remarkable.
His exacting iron play should go well in Texas where the wind can often whip through these flat, exposed golf courses like Memorial Park. He still has his flaws, and despite all those insanely good weeks with his approach play, Hoge has failed to finish inside the top six in any tournament. I think this could finally be the week he finds himself near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday and he's looking to parlay his iron plays into a big paycheck in Texas.
#7. Jason Day
I spent a good bit of time following Jason Day, and his abundance of fabric, around TPC Sawgrass and THE PLAYERS Championship. He finished the week with a disappointing 35th place result and he really couldn't get his irons going like he had during the California Swing.
There's something Jason Day loves about Texas though. He's played this event in three consecutive seasons with middling results, but his continued attendance tells me there is something about Memorial Park that suits his eye. Every week it seems like he excels in one part of his game, but then something else slips. If he can put it all together in one week, we could see another victory this season.
🏆 BACK ON TOP!
Jason Day Returns To The Winners Circle In Texas At The At&t Byron Nelson! 🥇 Congrats On The Big Win Jason!#golf #pgatour #espn #ATTByronNelson pic.twitter.com/TZXJEVRDo0
— Golf Discount (@GolfDiscount) May 15, 2023
#6. Keith Mitchell
It was a tough Sunday at the Valspar Championship for those like myself who were sweating a Keith Mitchell ticket. The absolute high of holing out for Eagle to garner a solo Saturday night lead quickly wore off with a barrel of Sunday bogeys. That said, it shouldn't deter you too much after one bad round because Mitchell has been flushing it.
He ranks top-5 in the field in Greens in regulation and strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds played. He's also been particularly good with his long irons, ranking fourth in the field in proximity gained on approach shots over 200+ yards. He's played well here before and he's in great form. Could it finally be his week?
#5. Sahith Theegala
There are numerous players in my rankings this week who have been searching for some confidence with the Putter, Sahith Theegale is not one of them. He's been rolling it beautifully on the greens and ranks second in the field in terms of strokes gained Putting over the last 30 rounds played.
He's on the precipice of becoming a bonafide star on the PGA Tour, and they could use more great players who bring a little flare and personality to the game like Theegala. He finished inside the top 10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PLAYERS Championship. Theegala should be riding high-headed to Houston. He can get as hot as any player when he gets it going.
Birdie.
Eagle.
Birdie.Sahith Theegala is on fire. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/J57OPjYYRf
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) March 16, 2024
#4. Tony Finau
The anomaly that is trying to predict Tony Finau continues this week and I am left once again perplexed. Finau arrives this week with sights set this week on defending his 2023 Houston Open crown after he won last year by four shots. His approach play statistics for the last two months has been fantastic but he has not been able to manifest that into the results he wanted.
There have been numerous rough patches in his career with the putter, but what I have seen this season is borderline hopeless. As we know and watched with Scottie Scheffler for nearly a full season, no ballstriking prowess can completely cover up a putrid putter. It may return this week on these relatively simplistic greens at Memorial Park, but I have to see it before I believe it.
#3. Will Zalatoris
I was surprised to see that Will Zalatoris has not previously competed in the Houston Open, but I believe this is a golf course that should suit his game perfectly. Zalatoris should feel right at home in Texas, and despite a lackluster performance at The PLAYERS, it would appear he has regained some of the ballstriking prowess that he leveraged to burst onto the scene as a Rookie and immediately show up at Major Championships.
Zalatoris still managed to gain +2.2 strokes on approach at the PLAYERS even while missing the cut. That speaks to what TPC Sawgrass can do to you. One or two bad swings can erase an entire day of good play. I fully expect Zalatoris to rebound this week and will make it four straight weeks gaining at least +2 on approach. We already know what he is gearing up for next month in Georgia!
#2. Wyndham Clark
I generally feel like we, as a community of hardcore professional golf fans, move too slowly when adjusting our rankings on players who are performing at a level above their baseline. I say this because I believe Wyndham Clark may just be a top-3 player in the world right now. Clark has finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in his last two tournaments played and has been on the cusp of victory on both occasions.
He's got something intangible, I call it guts! His talent and skill from a ballstriking standpoint do not hold water to Scheffler, but Clark gets the absolute MOST out of his peak rounds and can catch fire with his putter. He's one of the longest players on the PGA Tour, a particular asset that should be well rewarded at Memorial Park. He's too good to continue to underrate and underestimate.
#1. Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler continues his run as the best ball striker on the planet by a wide margin, and it might be time to say it, "Happy learned how to putt!". He won back-to-back signature series events in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS. The train is running full steam ahead and the next stop is three-in-a-row!
Scheffler has finished inside the top-10 in the past two seasons at the Houston Open, including a 2nd place in 2022. There is really not much else you can say about this guy, except to just sit back and enjoy the show. He's by a large margin the best ball striker on the PGA Tour and if he can continue to build on his newly found confidence with the mallet-style putter...it feels like a runaway train!
Congratulations to Scottie Scheffler. What a week. pic.twitter.com/wBj2oyoDFs
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) March 17, 2024
Best of luck this week Rotoballer family!
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