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Now that the 2023 NFL Draft has concluded, we have a much clearer picture as to how the league’s landscape will look going into next season although there are still a number of roster moves to be made over the remaining course of the offseason.
The draft was exciting from start to finish with a number of surprises highlighted by Will Levis’ draft day drop to Round 2. There were major fantasy implications on a number of teams and dynasty managers were on their toes for all three days of the NFL’s largest offseason event.
Superflex dynasty leagues are the most common dynasty format nowadays so for the purpose of this rookie mock draft, we will be examining Rounds 1-3 in a 12-team superflex PPR dynasty league. Let’s dive in.
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1.01 - Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
The Texas product has always been the 1.01 of the 2023 class in all formats, and his landing spot in Atlanta only solidifies that. Arthur Smith loves to stick to the ground game and did nothing to elevate their potential at quarterback while rolling with a tandem of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke for 2023. Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee when Derrick Henry led the league with 1,540 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, and Atlanta was third in the league in rushing yards a season ago. The Falcons are a golden landing spot for dynasty’s golden boy.
1.02 - C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU
In my opinion, all of the 2023 quarterbacks have their question marks and by far none of them are a sure thing to pan out. Anthony Richardson is a common selection at two due to his rushing upside and seeing Stroud here may come as a surprise to many, but believe it or not he may have the best situation for 2023 and beyond in Houston. The defense is built around two cornerstones in Will Anderson and Derrick Stingley, the offensive line is criminally underrated, and the offensive weapons in Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Robert Woods, Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, and Dalton Schultz are not as bad of a supporting cast as some say. A strong offensive line is a rookie quarterback’s best friend, and Stroud has the line to set him up for success. He throws the most accurate ball of all of the quarterbacks in the class. Why not swing big at 1.02?
1.03 - Bryce Young, QB, CAR
The number 1 pick in the 2023 class comes off the board at three, over high-upside Anthony Richardson. Young’s biggest question mark has always been his size, but now the team surrounding him sparks questions as well. Can Young succeed with a below-average offensive line and Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark as his two top options in the passing game? Not to mention Carolina has no first-round pick next year. Succeeding in this situation is a tall task for Young, but he was picked first overall for a reason and grabbing him at 1.03 adds some significant upside for your dynasty squad.
1.04 - Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
Anthony Richardson finally comes off the board at 1.04. The former Florida quarterback is the definition of a raw prospect, completing just 53% of his passes and throwing nine interceptions while taking 13 sacks a season ago. The Colts fell in love with his athleticism and arm strength, and Josh Allen as a prospect is a formidable comparison for Richardson. New Colts’ head coach Shane Steichen will look to use Richardson for his rushing upside much like how he utilized Jalen Hurts in Philly last season. Richardson has all the potential in the world to be an unreal fantasy quarterback, but is it all just hype? Grabbing him at 1.04 is an absolute steal if he ends up coming anywhere close to Hurts or Allen’s production, but typically when you can't perform in college it is tough to translate to NFL production.
1.05 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
The first receiver off the board in the actual draft is the first receiver off the board in most dynasty drafts. Smith-Njigba landed in a sneaky good spot in Seattle, and while it may take him a while to start to produce behind Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf he is a strong candidate to see a typical rookie arc with an explosive end to the season. Seattle has an out to Lockett’s contract next season, potentially setting Smith-Njigba up for a larger role. If Geno Smith can continue his 2022 magic into 2023, Smith-Njigba is a home-run addition to any dynasty roster.
1.06 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
Jahmyr Gibbs is a hot topic in the dynasty community after the Lions shocked the world and selected him 12th overall in the draft. He’s ranked as high as a top-3 dynasty running back overall in some experts’ rankings, but others are skeptical. In reality, he will be splitting time with David Montgomery but should see a significant receiving workload which is golden for PPR. Gibbs is an explosive home-run hitter and as long as the coaching staff likes him more than they liked D’Andre Swift he should be a top-tier addition to any fantasy team. Expect eight carries and eight targets a game.
1.07 - Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
Jordan Addison stated that he and Justin Jefferson are already the best receiving duo in the NFL, and he may not be far off. The 2021 Biletnikoff winner is as polished as they come and should make an immediate impact as the number two option behind Jefferson. He should be the second receiver off the board here and should provide fairly consistent stats throughout his career.
1.08 - Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC
Quentin Johnston has both lovers and critics in the industry, but I fall more on the love side. He was a game-changer at TCU with elite speed for his 6-3 frame. If he can play up to his size, which he often struggled with at TCU, he can be a faster Mike Williams. Johnston slots into the offense behind Williams and Keenan Allen in his rookie season, so do not expect immediate production. However, Allen and Williams are both known for missing time. Justin Herbert has to throw the ball to someone, so why not his Round 1 rookie? TCU receivers have not panned out in the NFL in the past, but the Herbert to Johnston connection is so hard to not get excited about.
1.09 - Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
This is a little higher than Kincaid typically comes off the board, but in my opinion it is an absolute bargain. The former Utah tight end was an absolute monster in college where he put up Travis Kelce-esque numbers. Can he be Josh Allen’s version of Kelce? Obviously, that is quite the ceiling, but why not? Behind Stefon Diggs, who turns 30 this season, the Bills’ pass-catching room is pretty open. If Kincaid develops chemistry with Josh Allen, watch out. This was the best-case landing spot for him and he is a cornerstone piece in dynasty.
1.10 - Kendre Miller, RB, NO
The former TCU running back came off the board in the third round, which is solid draft capital for a running back. Alvin Kamara showed clear signs of slowing down last season and saw his receiving game usage hit all-time low marks, not to mention a probable impending suspension for a domestic violence case. Jamaal Williams was added to the New Orleans running back room and while he had an amazing 2022 season, he can’t carry the load completely solo. In 2017, a talented third-round running back came to a loaded running back room consisting of two former Heisman winners and NFL producers in Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson. He proceeded to win fantasy leagues as a premier waiver wire option. That was Alvin Kamara. Does history repeat itself with Miller? He’s worth taking a swing at with 1.10.
1.11 - Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
Since 2015, Baltimore has selected four receivers in round 1 with Zay Flowers being the latest. The other three? Breshad Perriman, Marquise Brown, and Rashod Bateman. While Brown has had some success, the other two did not pan out. Flowers carried the Boston College offense this past season, but Baltimore has too many mouths to feed on an offense that is very run-oriented. His fantasy ceiling is not high despite his Round 1 draft capital. Being a Round 1 pick, he offers some fantasy value and there is a potential outcome of him being the top target for Lamar Jackson behind Mark Andrews. In this best-case scenario, he could be a weekly flex option.
1.12 - Devon Achane, RB, MIA
Devon Achane slips into the back end of Round 1 in this mock, where he has commonly been selected in rookie drafts thus far. While he isn’t built to carry a full NFL workload at 5-9, 185 pounds, he did so last year at Texas A&M and was explosive and efficient. Miami brought back Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., which means absolutely nothing and leaves the backfield wide open to capture. Keep an eye on Dalvin Cook, as there have been rumors he could be cut or traded and Miami is the leader to land him if Minnesota is to move on. If Cook doesn’t land in Miami, Achane is a steal at pick 12.
Move on to Round 2 and see who the next 12 picks off the board are.
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