RADIO
Congratulations on making it through seven weeks of chaotic, lower-scoring-than-usual NFL madness. Week 7 hit us with several key injuries but we do get a lighter bye week to ease the burden, with only the Chargers and Chiefs stepping out for a breather. Are you ready to dive into the free-agent market with me?
Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable causes for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 8.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Bailey Zappe (QB, NE) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
4% rostered
Zappe took over for a struggling Mac Jones on Monday night and led a pair of scoring drives before halftime hit. This looks like his squad now as Zappe has shown little fear in taking deep shots, though he wound up driving several throws into D-line hands in the second half on Monday night. All told, Belichick said the switch was part of the plan all along.
Bill Belichick on the QB switch according to Lisa Salters:
“That was the plan all along.”
Will Bailey Zappe will play the rest of the way?
“No. He and Mac Jones will both play in the 2nd half.” pic.twitter.com/0sNtmCltrJ
— Casey Baker (@_CaseyBaker) October 25, 2022
We have to doubt this given the tag-in time following a horribly-lofted interception by Jones, who did not return to the game in the second half as promised. Zappe couldn't keep the magic flowing but looks to be the source of fantasy upside under center in Foxborough.
Andy Dalton (QB, NO) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
3% rostered
Dalton put up a classic “great for fantasy but the team lost” line with 361 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Two of them were returned for TDs, so this may have been Jameis Winston in disguise. Would you believe that Taysom Hill actually caught a touchdown instead of running it in?
Anyway, this likely underscores Arizona’s own problems more than Dalton’s strengths but it was encouraging to see him push the ball without Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry. And even if it was due to Arizona, Dalton and the Saints host a subpar Raiders defense in Week 8 that could yield a similar outcome.
Sam Ehlinger (QB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
1% rostered
Matt Ryan has been benched (and also suffered a Grade 2 separated shoulder) for Ehlinger, which means those in 2QB leagues should mobilize. The quality of quarterback play in the bottom half has been, let’s say, poor. It won’t take much for Ehlinger to become a trade target or starting option there.
Ehlinger is a sixth-round draft pick from the 2021 draft who will be asked to overcome a leaky offensive line. He has more mobility than Matt Ryan or Nick Foles and could buy another second to allow routes to develop. It also gives Indy a chance to evaluate the youngster. For what it’s worth, Ehlinger went 24-of-29 for 289 yards and four TDs in the preseason, going for 71 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Intriguing, no?
P.J. Walker (QB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
2% rostered
Walker and the Panthers carved up the Buccaneers in a 21-3 rout on Sunday, with Walker completing 16-of-22 passes for 177 yards alongside two scores. He didn’t have to hit the gas pedal but performed well when asked, even bringing DJ Moore back to life. Carolina faces the Falcons in two of the next three weeks for deep-league streamers.
Malik Willis (QB, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
1% rostered
Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury in the second half on Sunday but returned and hobbled through the rest of Tennessee’s 19-10 victory. Wearing a walking boot in the postgame presser, Tannehill may not be a go for Week 8 at Houston. Just keep Willis on your watch list as you monitor the injury updates for Tannehill.
Willis hasn’t played much yet but managed four rushes (next to four pass attempts) for 16 yards in a brief appearance against Buffalo in Week 2. If their game plan with him calls for anything close to a 50/50 split of running and throwing then he’s a fantasy dynamo. Of course, Derrick Henry will probably just run for 300 yards with four touchdowns against Houston.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 15-25%
43% rostered
Edwards came off of the IR with something to prove, rushing for 66 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries to spearhead a 23-20 victory. He looked far superior to Kenyan Drake, who only mustered five yards on 11 totes. Justice Hill sprinkled in five carries for 26 yards but lost a fumble.
This could be a hot-hand committee with who comes out firing on any given Sunday but Edwards is positioned as the 1A for now. Bid accordingly in a run-heavy Baltimore attack where a committee member can still see 10-15 touches.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
36% rostered
D'Onta Foreman (49% rostered) is also a solid add, of course, but was added in most competitive circles before Week 7. Hubbard was seen as more of an afterthought but wound up as the primary back against Tampa Bay before departing with an ankle injury. It was reported he could've gone back in if needed but the 21-3 victory wasn't ever threatened late. A piece of Carolina's committee isn't great, but he looks like a lock for 12-plus touches per week.
Rachaad White (RB, TB) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
29% rostered
The Bucs got embarrassed by the Panthers but White outproduced Leonard Fournette, gaining 32 total yards on seven touches to Lenny’s 26 on 10. Fournette has made value with 34 catches already but is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry thus far. In Weeks 2-7, that figure falls to 2.87 YPC.
Rachaad hits the hole and pass protects with 2x the physicality as Lenny right now.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 25, 2022
It’s fair to say the door is ajar for White to make an impression. Tampa just showed us they’re willing to tag him in. Whether anyone can produce with the struggling offensive line play is another story, but the opportunity could be around the corner.
Damien Williams (RB, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
3% rostered
Tyler Allgeier had a nice Sunday, rushing for 50 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries as Atlanta refuses to pass the ball. Allgeier is only 40% rostered and is a decent add but that ship has sailed for many of you.
Williams has been on IR following a Week 1 rib injury but was running next to Cordarrelle Patterson in the starting rotation prior to getting hurt. At this point, the Falcons can only be trusted to run the ball even when it kills them. Stash Williams if you need an RB flier.
D'Ernest Johnson (RB, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
1% rostered
This is a pure speculation play given the reports that Kareem Hunt could be traded. Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance when given some volume in the past and I know many of you are seeking any RB darts with some upside to stash away.
#Browns are listening to offers on RB Kareem Hunt, per a league source. @TheOBR
— Brad Stainbrook (@StainbrookNFL) October 24, 2022
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
29% rostered
Robinson moved up to playing 53-of-76 snaps for the Giants, running 29 routes and garnering a team-high target count in the process. PFF gave him seven targets and even a quieter 6-50-0 line can get lost in the shuffle.
Darius Slayton’s 58 yards and a TD on three catches may grab eyeballs but Robinson’s increased workload highlights a potential high-floor play in the future. Daniel Jones only threw 30 times in Week 7 so the ceiling for NYG pass-catchers appears modest, but Robinson reads like the No. 1 and is worth targeting.
Parris Campbell (WR, IND) - FAAB Bid: 6-8%
6% rostered
Campbell led the Colts in targets (12), receptions (10), and receiving yards (70) alongside a TD in his second straight strong game. We must mobilize whenever a wideout hits back-to-back games with double-digit targets.
The question now is whether Indy’s move to Sam Ehlinger has them pushing downfield more over the quick, shallow routes in Campbell’s wheelhouse. Campbell is a solid add in all PPR formats but we must recognize the lower floor with a new QB stepping in. Feel free to add Alec Pierce in case he is dropped by those thinking Campbell surpassed him despite working in different roles.
Marquise Goodwin (WR, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
1% rostered
DK Metcalf was carted off with a knee injury and it was Goodwin who elevated in the wake of that rather than D’Wayne Eskridge. Goodwin wound up running 22 routes (compared to Eskridge at 15, Tyler Lockett ran 27) and catching 4-of-5 targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle may lean more on Kenneth Walker III and dial back the passing but Goodwin looks like the other starter if Metcalf misses significant time.
My understanding is the plan for #Seahawks WR DK Metcalf is to rehab his knee injury -- which coach Pete Carroll referred to as a patellar tendon issue -- and see how the recovery goes. No timetable for his return yet. But no surgery as of now, which is obviously good news.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 24, 2022
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
20% rostered
DPJ hauled in all six of his targets for 71 yards but did lose a fumble in a decent Week 7 showing. The Browns’ schedule gets scary moving forward (CIN, MIA, BUF, TB) and they may need to pass more to hang in.
The action could be funneled to DPJ and Amari Cooper with David Njoku set to miss 2-5 weeks with an ankle injury. You could also hit a playoff-week winner when Deshaun Watson steps into the lineup later this year to boost the passing attack’s potential.
Treylon Burks (WR, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
18% rostered
If Burks’ IR stint forced him to your waiver wire then see if you can find room for him. There’s very little in the Tennessee WR room for us but Burks could blossom down the stretch and during fantasy playoffs.
Van Jefferson (WR, LAR) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
7% rostered
Just tuck Jefferson away now that he’s able to return to practice and could be activated ahead of Week 8’s tilt against San Francisco. The Rams have been unable to consistently support anyone outside of Cooper Kupp. Still, Jefferson has shown big-play ability and supplies players with a ceiling worth chasing in deeper formats.
Sammy Watkins (WR, GB) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
8% rostered
Watkins stepped into the No. 2 WR role for Green Bay once Allen Lazard left with a shoulder injury. He only saw four targets because the Pack play slowly and Aaron Jones is practically a wide receiver himself, but it is a starting role all the same if Lazard can’t go in Week 8. That game against Buffalo will demand plenty of throwing but is the Sunday night game so perhaps tab Watkins as a backup flex play.
Joshua Palmer (WR, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
DeAndre Carter (WR, LAC) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
20% & 5% rostered, respectively
Mike Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain at the end of a game where Keenan Allen was heavily limited in his return. The Chargers are on bye next week so Palmer has a chance at coming back from his concussion, though Carter would be the No. 2 if not (assuming Williams misses at least two weeks). I’d rather have Palmer and hope the bye is enough time.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
2% rostered
Dulcich continued progressing with a 6-51-0 line on nine targets, the same tally as Courtland Sutton, and 34 routes run, which is one more than K.J. Hamler ran. The point here is that Dulcich is the receiving TE for Denver and essentially running like a slot receiver at this time.
Greg Dulcich's 2nd NFL game:
* 47-of-79 snaps (59%)
* 23 slot, 22 inline, 1 wide, 1 backfield
* 34 routes on 48 Brett Rypien dropbacks (71%)
* 9 targets for a 19.5% share
* 6-51-0 result
* Albert O a healthy scratch again https://t.co/kMZ7A4MXkn— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 24, 2022
Denver would love to lean on running and defense but Nathaniel Hackett’s ineptitude tends to put the Broncos in a hole where the passing game is needed. They face a Jacksonville team away from Denver’s altitude in Week 8 so we could see them pressed for action.
Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
3% rostered
Johnson scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 7’s TNF shootout loss to the Cardinals as Andy Dalton wasn’t afraid to look his way in the red zone. He maximized his five catches and a 5-32-2 line feels close to his ceiling in a Dalton-led offense, but we could approach that again with a soft Raiders defense coming to town in Week 8.
Cade Otton (TE, TB) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
14% rostered
The Bucs are beyond disappointing right now but their 67.4% team passing rate leads the NFL and Otton is a starting piece of that with Cameron Brate out. Otton notched 64 yards on four catches (five targets) and I’d imagine he draws another start on a short week against Baltimore on Thursday.
Harrison Bryant (TE, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
0% rostered
We mentioned David Njoku’s ankle injury but Pharaoh Brown also got dinged, which left Bryant as the man at TE. He only caught two balls for 15 yards but this is a low-volume passing game and the median projection for secondary receivers is poor. Beggars can’t be choosers and Bryant shapes up as the guy who will practice with the starters ahead of a Week 8 home game against Cincinnati.
Foster Moreau (TE, LV) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
6% rostered
Darren Waller didn’t practice at all last week with a hamstring injury and Moreau drew the Week 7 start. We didn’t get any payoff with three catches for 28 yards on a day where Josh Jacobs singlehandedly won the game. Moreau did come down with a ball inside the five-yard line and would be back on streaming radars if Waller misses Week 8 at New Orleans.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense (vs DEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
27% rostered
Targeting Coach Hackett has paid dividends so far and Jacksonville is intriguing whether Russell Wilson or Brett Rypien starts. The Jags have been hit for 57 combined points in their last two games but did generate nine sacks and nine turnovers in their first four games of 2022. The game opened with a betting total line of 47 points and that’s already tumbled to 39 at some books. Yikes!
Washington Commanders Defense (at IND) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
5% rostered
Washington-Indianapolis is another game where the betting total has slid under 40 points at some sportsbooks, going to 39.5 at DraftKings as of late Monday. While Sam Ehlinger may bring new hope, he also yields new risks and Washington is a cheap avenue toward potential mistakes from a new signal-caller.
Atlanta Falcons Defense (vs CAR) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
2% rostered
The Falcons just got roasted by Joe Burrow and the Bengals but the Panthers are not the Bengals. We’re also hoping the secondary heals up some before Week 8. If you’d rather play the other side of this coin then Carolina is only 3% rostered and has held their ground against the Rams and Bucs in back-to-back weeks, but I’m siding with the home team in Atlanta.
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