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This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.
Today we'll be exploring the fantasy wasteland that is the San Francisco 49ers.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: Head Coach Chip Kelly
Offseason Departures: RB Reggie Bush, WR Anquan Boldin
Players to Avoid: Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert
Player to Reach For: WR Torrey Smith
Quarterbacks
Oh boy, what a hot mess this situation turned out to be. First the 49ers appeared poised to move on from Colin Kaepernick before deciding to retain him. Then, when it seemed like he'd get another shot at starting under new Head Coach Chip Kelly, the team opened the position up to a competition between Kaep and Blaine Gabbert. The interestingly overrated mighty sure have fallen huh?
Let me keep this short and sweet; you're not going to want to own whichever QB ends up with the starting gig here. Between the instability of both players and how ridiculously deep the position is overall, the Niners quarterback just doesn't have much fantasy value. I will say, however, that Colin Kaepernick does have some intriguing value in a 2QB format due to his rushing ability. Even still, I'd much rather invest in a guy like Alex Smith at that point. Why deal with the headache of an unreliable option when you can take someone who won't hurt you in Smith? The upside obviously isn't the same but the floor is a hell of a lot higher. And spare me the "but in a Chip Kelly offensive system" rhetoric would you please? In order for that to actually be a thing you can hang your hat on the player(s) in question have to actually be talented enough to produce.
Running Backs
Where the "Chip Kelly System" jargon might come into play, though, is in the backfield. Everyone and their grandpa remembers Carlos Hyde going bonkers in week one of 2015 against the Minnesota Vikings. Everyone also remembers the rest of his season being muddled by inconsistent play and injury woes. Now expected to be fully healthy for 2016, Hyde is poised to have a solid bounce back year for San Francisco.
Considering that his playing time was cut short last year, it's impossible to use his 2015 stat sheet as anything useful for the upcoming season. Instead, it's better that we just try to project forward. Hyde has legit value as an RB2 with an ADP in the 4th round. In fact, he might actually be undervalued considering how barren the position is as a whole. That's the thing with drafting Hyde though, the key aspect to owning him this year is taking advantage of his ADP. Don't reach for him and you'll have yourself a prime RB2 at solid value. He has enough upside to end up as a low-end RB1 if the offense can get itself together. Unfortunately, I'm not that confident that's something that actually comes to fruition because quite frankly, I expect the 49ers to be pretty bad this year. Like, picking in the top three of the NFL draft next year, bad. Hyde's scoring opportunities are going to be few and far between.
There's also been some chatter about Hyde being more involved in the passing game this year. That's an interesting thought but the threat of Shaun Draughn hoarding catches out of the backfield is a legitimate one to be concerned about. That's essentially Draughn's role in the offense; he's the pass-catching back that's going to bail out Kaepernick and/or Gabbert. He's a sneaky, deeper league PPR play that hinders Hyde's value in that format. It's not even a traditional handcuff situation either since both of these players will be used simultaneously.
Wide Receivers
This is another section we can keep rather quick. Now that Anquan Boldin is off to the Detroit Lions, San Francisco's wide receiver corps is extremely thin behind Torrey Smith. So since this is a one man show, we should treat it as such and deal strictly with Smith.
Anyone who's ever owned or watched Torrey Smith play knows that he's a big play waiting to happen he's just not the most dependable guy when it comes to targets. There's a decent chance that Boldin's departure opens up some more looks for Smith but I actually thing those passes are more likely to go to Hyde and Draughn than a wide receiver. Given Smith's playmaking ability, however, I think he's actually a little underrated right now. He's going around the 10th round but there's a bunch of wide receivers he should be going ahead of. I'm talking about WRs like Tyler Lockett, Allen Hurns, and Markus Wheaton, guys who have shakier playing situations than Smith for a variety of reasons. I'm willing to reach on Smith a round earlier to ensure I snag him over the other players going in his vicinity.
Tight Ends
Can I interest you in Vance McDonald? No? How about the lesser known Celek brother, Garrett Celek? I didn't think so. This team will be lucky if they can sustain Torrey Smith's fantasy relevance through the air, let alone produce a fantasy relevant tight end on top of it. Nothing to see here folks, move along.
