This article continues our team outlook series where we will break down each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off-season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.

Today we take a look at the up-and-coming Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Offseason Moves & Outlook

Offseason Acquisitions: RB Chris Ivory

Players to Avoid: QB Blake Bortles

Quarterback

There is a strong chance that I am in the minority in declaring I will be avoiding Blake Bortles this season and I am perfectly okay with that. My avoidance of Bortles is two-fold, and you'll actually see me apply a similar logic when discussing Allen Robinson in a bit.

First, let us address the giant teal-colored elephant in the room--the idea that a vast majority of Blake Bortles' stats came during garbage time. The numbers that you will most certainly hear regurgitated time and time again are that Bortles threw 29 touchdowns when his team was trailing, 15 of which came when the Jags were down by at least 10 points. Additionally, his ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in first halves was just 12 to 10. There are more nuanced numbers that you'll hear from prominent names in the fantasy industry like Matthew Berry and Christopher Harris, but let's just stick with those for our analysis here.

Those numbers tell us that Bortles was great in the second half, especially when the game was seemingly out of reach. What it also tells us, however, is that a significant part of the reason as to why Jacksonville was playing from behind in the first place was due to Blake's inability to get the offense going in the first half. He was simply more lucky than he was good and despite him finishing as the fifth-best fantasy QB. That scares me when it comes to considering him as a starter.

The second, more general point about the Jaguars that relates to why I'm backing away from Blake Bortles is the idea that the team is widely viewed as having improved significantly on defense. In fact, you've likely heard that the Jaguars are an all-around improved team. What gets lost in the "Jacksonville is going to be better this year" narrative is that maybe their deficits won't be as great if their defense really is that much better. And maybe that means the team won't have to rely on Bortles turning on his fourth-quarter heroics. I admit this isn't the most concrete fantasy analysis to stick my name to, but it's icing on the cake for a guy that I'm very concerned about owning in 2016.

Running Backs

The Jaguars shot a poison arrow into the keeper league stock of running back T.J. Yeldon when they signed Chris Ivory in the offseason. Anyone who owned Yeldon last year will tell you that his lack of touchdowns was insufferable. Even more specific than that, Yeldon suffered from an infuriating lack of touches inside the red zone. Everyone who owned him last year remembers the series where Jacksonville decided to give the ball to Toby Gerhart four times at the goal line rather than try to further a stellar game from Yeldon. It's certainly possible that Yeldon was simply gassed on that series but that doesn't really change the fact that the Jags don't like relying on him when they get in close.

Enter: Chris Ivory. If there is one key aspect to Ivory's game it's that he's a great runner when the ball is near the goal line. That's likely the main reason he was signed by Jacksonville; to establish a more dominant ground approach in close. This brings up another dagger to Bortles' fantasy stock as he had the most passing attempts inside opponents' 10-yard line last season. Ivory is going to hoard touches in the red zone and while it's possible that means Yeldon gets all the work in between the 20s, it's still unclear how this committee is going to shake out.

We've seen plenty of teams utilize multiple backs effectively for fantasy purposes, so I can certainly envision a scenario where both players are useful. It's just impossible to predict precisely who is the more reliable option at this point. Luckily, both backs have solid draft value with each of their ADPs hovering around the eighth round. That's solid value for what should be a running back by committee.

Wide Receivers

If my issues with Blake Bortles are scaring you off of the prospect of owning wide receiver Allen Robinson, fear not. I still think Robinson can have a stellar year even if Blake Bortles regresses. We have seen plenty of great, talented wide receivers become fantasy studs when playing with quarterbacks far worse than Bortles. DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Gordon have had monster years with Brian Hoyer. I may not have a Blake Bortles Fathead on my wall anytime soon, but I'm no dummy--he's better than Brian freakin' Hoyer. In short, I like Robinson as a borderline WR1 in any format. I just prefer the likes of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery since they're more proven commodities with more reliable QB situations.

Where I do think the worries about Bortles come into play, however, is when addressing fellow Jacksonville receiver Allen Hurns. Hurns was a touchdown-maker last year, finishing the season with 10 scores. While I don't expect Robinson to tie for the lead league in TDs again with 14, he still has a clear advantage skill-wise over Hurns. If the Jaguars decide to run the ball more in close, look for Hurns' touchdown numbers to dip a little in the process. He's a WR3 with some upside.

Tight End

Julius Thomas is a freak of an athlete who has the skill set to catapult back up into that top-five area at the position. Unfortunately for the artist formerly known as Orange Julius, this offense isn't as good as the one he played for in Denver a few seasons ago. That, combined with having to spread the ball around and the fact that TE6-TE12 are all legitimately talented, Thomas gets lumped together with the rest of the sameness. He's in the same class as a guy like Antonio Gates in that he's one of the later tight ends you can select as your starter and just wait hope the touchdowns to come.

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