July 31, 2016

Cliff analyzes his favorite sleeper quarterback who could be looking forward to his best fantasy season in the NFL.

It’s worth noting , for those of us stressing about our fantasy football drafts this year, quarterback is usually not the first position we worry about. In the first 47 picks, only two quarterbacks come off the board per Fantasy Football Calculator ADP.

As fantasy players continue to draft quarterback later and later, Ryan Tannehill may be the best late round quarterback to hitch your wagon to. 

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A Deeper Dive into Ryan Tannehill

Start with Tannehill, circa 2014. He ranked top-5 in completion percentage, over 4,000 yards passing and improved numbers in nearly every other category from 2013. What’s more surprising is the cast of characters he did it with; Mike Wallace, Charles Clay, and rookie wide receiver Jarvis Landry. After finishing ninth among quarterbacks in standard leagues(25 passing yards/1 point and 1 touchdown/4 points) with fantasy analysts making the not-so-bold prediction that Tannehill, equipped with a better team, would be a slam dunk fantasy points producer in 2015.

Of course, for those of us who pulled the trigger and paid handsomely, we were disappointed. The 2015 campaign found Tannehill in the top-10 in completions, attempts and passing yards, all positive developments for the young QB. But that year was spent on a see-saw with the first four games (and coincidentally the last four Miami Dolphins games under coach Joe Philbin) turning the ball over six times with only seven touchdowns. Though he found some rhythm towards the end of the season, he would end 2015 as the 16th ranked quarterback in fantasy scoring, with significant decreases in completion percentage and touchdown percentage.

If you’re looking at the “Tale of Two Tannehills,” you get the benefit of both; the cost of the 2015 Tannehill, with the potential of the 2014 Tannehill.

The Miami Dolphins are one of five teams that have two wide receivers in the Top 30 drafted among their position, Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Rotoballer writers Bill Dubiel and Ben Ruppert broke down which one is better to own in fantasy this year, but the potential for both is clear. Parker and Landry are serious downfield threats who could help open up the field for Tannehill. And Tannehill wants to throw it downfield. Part of the reason his completion percentage took a hit last year is because his tendency to throw long balls, raising his yards per attempt and completion. With both wide receivers going into 2016 fully healthy, there’s no reason the passing game shouldn’t drive the offense.

Of course, you could argue Tannehill’s greatest weapon isn’t even within the yard lines. Adam Gase, the brand new coach of the Miami Dolphins, has garnered the nickname of the QB whisperer. It’s not just because of this article from CBS Sports, where Gase raves over Ryan Tannehill and spits hilarious one-off quotes. It’s because of his incredible work with quarterbacks who needed it, such as Tim Tebow and Jay Cutler, and even the improvements he made to quarterbacks who did not necessarily need it (Peyton Manning). Manning went as far to offer his endorsement when Gase began interviewing for head coaching jobs in 2015. For a QB who arguably never needed a QB coach, Manning went as far as recommending one of them to lead an entire NFL team.

Jay Cutler is a particularly interesting case from Gase’s past that may help inform Tannehill’s future. Cutler improved his mechanics and his on-field decision making, and it showed. His passer rating was the highest of his career in 2015, his only year working under Gase, and his completion percentage and interception rate were close to career best levels. Even though Gase is no longer just managing the offense, it is hard to imagine a team where he wouldn’t play to his strengths and pour his time and energy into his new quarterback.

Ryan Tannehill is a year away from putting it all together, and at the absolute least I like him more than others being drafted around QB-20. Tannehill is an established starter, with coaching system in place that favors heavy QB production, and two stud wide receivers who should produce big this year. At worst, he's a cheap quarterback in quarterback-by-committee approach. At best, he could be a big key to a successful 2016 fantasy season.

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