Washington Redskins: 2015 Fantasy Football Analysis and Team Outlook

The Washington Redskins have gone from an emerging power in the NFC East to a team struggling to find its identity within a very short timeframe. Just three seasons ago, quarterback Robert Griffin III was viewed as the savior in Washington after a massive breakout rookie season. Since then, both Griffin and the franchise as a whole have had to endure a whole host of issues relating to injuries, drama with coaches, and front office debacles. I wouldn’t say 2015 is the year they’ll completely get back on track but should we have a much clearer picture as to how this team is expected to operate offensively.

Offseason Acquisitions: RB Matt Jones

No Longer on the Roster: RB Roy Helu, WR Leonard Hankerson

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Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin III fell victim to a gruesome dislocated ankle injury that cost him significant playing time over the course of last season. RGIII ended up playing just nine games for the Redskins and has now played in fewer and fewer games in each of his three seasons. There was always cause for concern pertaining to Griffin’s health considering his style of play as well as his overall proneness to injury and body type. Health aside, the argument for Griffin as a fantasy starter has been linked to his ability to rush outside the pocket. RGIII amassed 815 rushing yards during his rookie season in 2012, a massive number for a quarterback. Unfortunately, much like the number of games he’s played in, his rushing numbers have gone down in each of the two seasons that followed. Griffin dropped all the way down to 489 rushing yards in 2013. Throw in a drop in completion percentage and more than double the interceptions and it’s pretty clear that Griffin suffered the dreaded sophomore slump.

It’s difficult to analyze his stats from last year given how banged up he was but consider the following: in the nine games he played in in 2014, Griffin threw six interceptions compared to just five INTs over the course of all 15 games he played in his rookie year. The overall point here is that RGIII has regressed significantly since his big breakout rookie campaign. Head Coach Jay Gruden made it clear when he was hired that he wanted to turn Griffin into more of a pocket passer, thus limiting his rushing opportunities. Although this is by far the wiser move for Girffin’s long-term future as a real-life NFL quarterback, that simply reinforces the notion that he isn’t a viable fantasy option. Barring a change in offensive philosophy or a massive rebound statistically, there’s just no way you can have any faith in Robert Griffin III as a fantasy starter in league that starts one quarterback.

I should add that there is currently a competition to see who will be the number two QB on the depth chart between Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins. There is no doubt in my mind that there are at least a handful of fantasy owners out there salivating at the idea that if RGIII gets hurt again his backup will improve the offense. While we did see that in doses while Griffin was hurt last year, neither guy showed enough to warrant season-long attention. Whoever ends up being the backup quarterback in Washington should be treated as just that, a backup QB.

Wide Receivers

Both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon have had significant fantasy value over the course of their careers. 2014 was Jackson’s first year with the Redskins where he finished the year with some respectable numbers, ending up with 1,169 yards and six touchdowns on 94 targets. If you were to compare those numbers to some of his prior years in Philadelphia, you’d notice that Jackson has four seasons total with at least 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. As an added bonus, Jackson actually boasted the second highest average yards per catch of his career in his first year in Washington. Put all of this together and it’s clear that Jackson fits right in with this offense even with the injuries that plagued the quarterback position last season. Granted, he's notorious for being boom-or-bust player, relying heavily on breaking big plays rather than amassing receptions in bunches. That’s actually already built into his ranking as a borderline WR2, ranking in the early 20s at the position. He’s a FLEX with high-end WR2 potential given his playmaking ability and should be drafted accordingly.

The other receiver to take note of is the aforementioned Pierre Garcon. Prior to Jackson arriving in Washington, Garcon racked up 1,346 yards and five touchdowns on 113 receptions. The most astounding number of all thought was Garcon’s 184 targets, tops in the league in 2013. As expected, all of those numbers dropped considerably once Jackson showed up. While Jackson is still locked in as the number one receiver, there has been some chatter about a big bounce back year for Garcon this coming season. There is a legitimate possibility Garcon can bounce back, especially if he gets any sort of consistent quarterback play. Personally, I wouldn’t roster him until he strings together several big games in a row. It would also help if the team can keep their starting QB healthy enough to get both Jackson and Garcon the ball in bunches.

Running Back

Alfred Morris has to be the most unpopular consistent running back in fantasy. He’s never really been a true superstar of a RB1 but he’s always been solid enough to net you above average RB2 numbers. Morris has played in all 16 games in each of his first three seasons in the NFL and has amassed a respectable 4.5 yards-per-carry. Even if you consider the fact that his overall rushing yard total has gone down each year, there really aren’t that many solid RB2’s you can say are safer than Morris.

With that safety, however, comes a considerably low ceiling. The best year of Morris’s career came in conjunction with Robert Griffin III’s massive rookie season and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. Washington’s offense was simply tremendous that year between Griffin and Morris as the two complimented each other in a way that perplexed defenses. With the element of Griffin’s big-play ability seemingly gone, Morris’s fantasy upside takes a dive. Interestingly, Morris’s rushing attempts have gone down in each of his three seasons as well. While that isn’t enough of a reason to avoid Morris for fantasy, I do think there is something else to consider when you look at who the Redskins picked up in the NFL draft…

Rookies and Tight Ends

The Redskins selected running back Matt Jones out of Florida in the third round of the draft, adding some speculation as to what the team’s intentions were in scooping up another young running back. The simple analysis would be to chalk this up to needing a depth replacement for Roy Helu as Washington often utilized multiple backs at once. While I do believe this is a large part of the reasoning in selecting him, I think Matt Jones might be a bigger part of the offense than initially thought.

Reports out of camp suggest Jones is emerging as a pass-catching favorite and a solid third-down back that can compliment Alfred Morris. That would make Jones one of the more important handcuffs in fantasy since it sounds as if he’s good enough to fill in for Morris effectively should Morris go down. Roy Helu notoriously yanked scoring opportunities from Morris so I’d expect Jones to slide right into that role. As mentioned previously, Morris doesn’t possess a whole lot of upside anyway so I wouldn’t let Jones scare me off of picking Morris. I would, however, consider Jones to be a handcuff who could turn into a sleeper as a flex play, perhaps even more.

As far as tight ends are concerned, Jordan Reed and Niles Paul are both still employed in Washington with Reed expected to get the starting gig. The problem with Reed has nothing to do with his talent but his constant injury woes are scary. This is an offense that utilizes the tight end effectively (133 targets to TE's last year) so if Reed can stay healthy for an extended amount of time, he could easily become an every week fantasy starter. The problem is there are a lot more reliable tight ends to choose from. I’d much rather take a guy like Owen Daniels playing with Peyton Manning or Delanie Walker coming off of a solid fantasy year in Tennessee. If you wait on tight end, you can do far worse than Jordan Reed but his health issues would make me look elsewhere. Niles Paul becomes an interesting name if anything were to happen to Reed as the former wide receiver has shown he can put up numbers in Reed’s absence.

Mike Shanahan may be long gone from Washington at this point but there is still drama to be had within this franchise. Between Robert Griffin III’s health, the suggestion of a Pierre Garcon comeback, and some new moving parts in the running game, the Redskins aren’t without question marks. That being said, this is a team that isn’t as bad as some would have you believe, especially when it comes to fantasy.

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