A.J. Pollock: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Sleeper

A Late Season Bounceback

Life is full of setbacks. How people respond to setbacks can define their character – it shows work ethic and pride.

After taking a Johnny Cueto fastball to the hand in late May, no one would have batted an eye if A.J. Pollock chalked up 2014 as a lost season. His prognosis was that he could begin baseball activities in eight weeks, which meant he could start swinging a bat in August. Realistically he’d be back on the field in late August.

The return finally came on September 2 – when the Diamondbacks were 57-81, just 20.5 games back from the first place Dodgers! There was little to play for, but Pollock finished the season strong, tallying six stolen bases and 13 runs in his final 23 games. If you want to extrapolate over a full season, those rates equate to 42 steals and 91 runs.

Pollock was a sexy waiver wire addition for wily fantasy baseball owners in September. Finding stolen bases can be tough in the last month of the season without destroying batting average. Pollock provided a little bit of everything with nine RBI and a respectable .273 average.

High expectations aren’t a complete shock for Pollock, who was the 17^th overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft. He was brought up to the Show in 2012 after what was about two seasons worth of games in the minors (he missed most of 2010 with another injury). The Diamondbacks had high expectations for him in 2014.
 

Breakdown

Pollock’s speed is essential to his success. Not only does he provide stellar defense in center field, he leverages his strong contact rate (84.2%) with his speed to hit for a solid average. He finished 2014 with a .302 average, supported by a .344 BABIP and a relatively fortunate infield hit rate of 13.2%. He also cut down on his strikeouts from 2013, a trend worth monitoring in 2015. Take a look at some improvements below:

He hasn’t played much at the major league level, so it’s tough to too draw many conclusions. In 2014 we saw an improved strikeout rate, more power, more contact, and more stolen bases. The cynic will say that Pollock’s year was aided by an artificially high BABIP, and he still hasn’t proven an ability to hit for consistent power. But the optimist will say he’s continuing to adjust to major league pitching. He could post 13 or more home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a .290 average while hitting at the top of the Diamondbacks order. There are a number of 30 steal candidates out there that will hurt you in other categories, but Pollock offers talent across the board.
 

Final Take

I’m closer to the optimist mentality. Pollock’s value takes a hit in point-based leagues, but in 5x5 Roto leagues, with a current ADP of 216 (57th OF) he makes an excellent fifth outfielder. He brings a little bit of everything to the table and has nice upside at his current draft price. He’s also turning 27, which can be a magical year for breakout seasons. Draft him with confidence in the later rounds of 2015.