July 19, 2016

Pierre Camus examines three popular running backs draft picks for the 2016 fantasy football season to determine whether they will be sleepers or busts according to ADP.

The running back position has gone from the backbone of fantasy teams in the early rounds to a roll of the dice in the middle rounds. More teams are employing committees and expanded passing offenses, making running backs less essential pieces of a roster. Most fantasy leagues still require two RB in a weekly starting lineup, so picking a player that will contribute each week is harder than ever. In this piece, we'll look at three running backs who are being drafted relatively early, but who carry significant risk due to inexperience. Will these backs provide good return of value or should they be left alone on draft day?

Average Draft Position Data (12 team Standard, non-PPR) taken from Fantasy Football Calculator as of July 18th.

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2016 Draft Day - Booms or Busts?

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN): ADP: 5.05

Regardless of his fantasy performance, Hill will have to work wonders on the field to earn forgiveness from Bengals fans. His infamous fumble in the waning moments of what appeared to be a sure victory kept the franchise's 25 -year playoff win drought alive. One critical mistake cost the team a win, but more concerning is the drop-off in production from his rookie season. After putting up 1,124 rushing yards and a 5.1 yards per carry, those figures dropped to 794 rushing yards and 3.6 yards per carry. Despite his poor performance, he maintained his 13.9 rushes per game from his rookie season. So how can we forecast a possible turnaround and justify making Hill a RB1? I'll give you five good reasons.

1) He finished his second half better than the first half, averaging 3.93 yards per carry in his last six games and scored six TD in the last seven games.

2) The Bengals coaching staff had a personal meeting with Hill and discussed his running style, encouraging him to get back to his north-south running style rather than trying to break big runs.

3) New offensive coordinator Ken Zampese will make finding a way to properly utilize Hill a top priority.

4) The departures of receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, as well as a possible delayed return from injury of Tyler Eifert means the Bengals will lean more on their running game this year.

5) In the off-season, Hill consulted his personal mentor, Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, who advised him and motivated him to get past his big mistake.

In sum, Hill's reputation has taken a bigger hit than his productivity. He should be able to post numbers closer to his rookie season and at a fifth-round ADP, represents a good value for a player who is very likely to put up double-digit TD.

Verdict: Boom!

 
Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) ADP: 4.02

Unlike Hill, Hyde is yet to produce in any way that would make him relevant to fantasy owners over his first two seasons. Hyde has posted 333 and 470 rushing yards, with a total of seven TD in those two years. He has also struggled with injuries, missing 11 out of a possible 32 games. So why is he being drafted ahead of proven commodities such as DeMarco Murray, Jonathan Stewart and Frank Gore? Simply put, youth is valued over experience these days at the running back position, which explains why people are expecting Hyde to suddenly break out in his third season. It also explains why some people choose to watch "Toddlers and Tiaras," but that's a different article for a different site altogether.

On the surface, he has the talent and the opportunity. Chip Kelly is the X-factor, as his alleged offensive genius could be a huge boon to the value of the entire 49ers team. Realistically, Kelly was run out of Philly because his managerial style failed and the production didn't match the hype. With a similar style runner who was much more proven in DeMarco Murray, Kelly managed to kill his fantasy value in 2015. To expect Hyde to suddenly take a huge leap forward under the same system seems far-fetched at best. Given the fact that we don't even know who will play quarterback in San Francisco and the receiving corps currently reads as Torrey Smith and a group of no-name players, it may be hard for Hyde to find much running space. Throw in a lackluster defense that has gone steadily downhill since the departure of Jim Harbaugh and it's even harder to envision any running back getting 20+ carries a game. For a back who is also a non-factor in the passing game (23 receptions in two NFL seasons), it's unfathomable that he should be an early fourth-rounder. In PPR formats, he barely warrants RB2 status in my book.

Verdict: Bust!

 
Jeremy Langford (RB, CHI) ADP: 4.07

The fourth-round pick out of Michigan State had a brief taste of success in the NFL after filling in for Matt Forte last season. In weeks 8-12, Langford scored five TD and a two-point conversion while rushing for 277 yards. He also displayed a great knack for picking up Adam Gase's offense in his rookie year by catching 16 balls for 210 yards out of the backfield. He still saw a consistent workload upon Forte's return, which effectively served as the writing on the wall for a free agency departure once his contract expired. Langford is now expected to be the main running back in Chicago and will try to fill the shoes of the multi-talented Forte.

Now the bad news: Gase is gone and so are three of the Bears' best offensive lineman from last season. Chicago projects to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and the skill position players will have to adjust to a new play-caller. In addition, Langford will now have rookie Jordan Howard to compete with, along with Ka'Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers. Coach John Fox prefers a committee approach and all three competing backs catch the ball well. Langford filled in admirably for a time, but does not possess an elite skill set and is not in a position to post breakout numbers even if he performs up to his potential. He should be a decent RB2, but that might be his ceiling. Therefore, given his current ADP I deem him a slight bust. Here's those same two paragraphs again, summed up neatly in one bold word:

Verdict: Bust!

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