Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 7 Analysis

October 24, 2019

Phil Clark looks back at Week 7 targets, snaps, receptions trends for fantasy football WRs to find risers and fallers who are possible buy-lows or sell-highs.

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As the season unfolds, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which is designed to help you fulfill your championship aspirations.

This will be the seventh installment that examines game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a compilation of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

This week’s article will be functioning with seven weeks of data, which bolsters the foundation from which the numbers that are generated in various categories can be evaluated. As the season progresses noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, Rotowire, and Football Outsiders were all used as resources in compiling this data.

Week 7 Target Leaders  

Michael Thomas has captured the overall league in total targets for the season (78). He is followed by Cooper Kupp (77), Tyler Boyd (74), Keenan Allen (70), DeAndre Hopkins (68), Julian Edelman (68), and Julio Jones (62). No other receivers have eclipsed 60 targets after seven weeks. However, a collection of nine receivers have totals that range between 50 and 60 - Robert Woods (58), Larry Fitzgerald (55), Mike Evans (55), Chris Godwin (55), Odell Beckham Jr. (54), Courtland Sutton (54), Dede Westbrook (54), and Amari Cooper (50). D.J. Chark, Tyler Lockett, and Kenny Golladay lead a group of 26 receivers that have attained at least 40 targets.

Thomas has now captured 11+ targets during each of his last three games, while Hopkins and Edelman are the only other receivers that have reached double digits during two consecutive matchups. Thomas and Boyd are the only players that have collected 10+ targets during five different contests, while Kupp and Keenan Allen have accomplished it four times.

Sutton has captured 7+ targets in all seven of his matchups and has averaged 8-per-game since Week 4. Allen collected a double-digit target total for the first time since Week 3, after averaging just 5.6 per-game from Weeks 4-6. Marvin Jones had entered Week 7 averaging 6.8 targets per game. But the Lions exploited a massive matchup advantage by launching 13 targets to the eight year-veteran. Former Lion Golden Tate has now captured 20 targets during his last two matchups (9/11). Westbrook has averaged 8.6 targets per game since Week 3, after averaging 5.5 per game in Weeks 1-2.

Largest Weekly Changes 

Robinson returned from Chicago's bye to lead all receivers in targets during Week 7 (16). That total established a new career-high and was just the third game in which he had achieved double digits since Week 2 of 2018. The remaining collection of receivers who garnered the highest target totals includes a cluster of players whose names would be expected and a group of receivers whose presence is far more surprising.

Boyd and teammate Alex Erickson generated the second-highest weekly totals (14), followed by Marvin Jones (13), DeAndre Hopkins (12). Julian Edelman (12), and six other receivers who collected at least 10 targets – Thomas (11), Allen, Danny Amendola (11), Golden Tate (11), T.Y. Hilton (11), and Devante Parker (10). Dede Westbrook, Julio Jones, Anthony Miller, Demaryius Thomas, and Metcalf all attained nine targets while Kupp, A.J. Brown, Preston Williams, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, Chris Conley, Robby Anderson, and Minnesota rookie Olabisi Johnson all captured eight targets during their matchups.

The enormous fluctuations in Amendola’s weekly target totals were mentioned previously, and they included the season-low 1 target that he attained in Week 6. But his 11 targets in Week 7 resulted in the largest increase among all receivers (+10). Prior to Week 7, Erickson had accumulated 62 targets in his first 52 career games, but he has now captured 20 in the past two weeks. His career-high 14 in Week 7 also resulted in the second-largest increase of the week (+8). That tied him with Marvin Jones, whose rise of +8 occurred as the result of his highest weekly total since Week 6 of 2017. Tyler Boyd (+7), Devante Parker (+6), Keenan Allen (+5), Demaryius Thomas (+5), Brandin Cooks (+4), and D.K. Metcalf (+4) also experienced notable increases.

Alshon Jeffery had accrued 12 targets in Week 6. But Carson Wentz only launched five passes in Jeffery‘s direction during Week 7, which produced the most sizable decline of the week (-7). That tied him with Kenny Golladay, whose mammoth drop from nine targets in Week 6 to just two in Week 7 corresponded to the surge in targets for teammates Jones and Amendola.

Golladay had also been averaging 9-targets-per-game while receiving at least eight during his first five matchups. Darius Slayton was also limited to just two targets which resulted in a decline of -6. Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, Auden Tate, and Larry Fitzgerald all experienced reductions of -5.

Week 7 Yards-Per-Target Leaders

Kenny Stills now leads all wide receivers in yard-per-target average, among players that have collected at least 15 targets. Stefon Diggs is second (13.4), followed by Zach Paschal (12.6), Amari Cooper (12.4), D.J. Chark (12.1) and Chris Godwin (12.0). and Marquise Goodwin (11.3). Marquez Valdes Scantling (11.2). A.J. Brown (10.9), Tyler Lockett (10.7), Mecole Hartman (10.6) are followed by four receivers that are all averaging 10.5 yards-per-target (John Brown/Michael Gallup/Davante Adams/Terry McLaurin). Courtland Sutton, Jarvis Landry, Willie Snead, and Tyreek Hill are all averaging between 10-10.4 yards- per-target.

Diggs' 17.9 yard per target average in Week 7 was his second-highest of the season. and continued a trend in which he has exceeded 15 yards-per-target in three of his last four matchups. He has averaged 14.85 during those contests, which transpired immediately after he averaged just 6-yards-per-target in Weeks 2-3.

Cooper’s average rose by exactly a yard from Week 6 -Week 7 (11.4/12.4). Westbrook averaged just 3.56 yards per target in Weeks 1-3. But his average has improved sizably to 9.13 during his last four matchups, while he has also reached 11 yards-per-target twice during that span.

While Robinson's target total improved sizably in Week 7, his yards-per-target average experienced a significant decline. He had been averaging 8.82 from Weeks 1-6, including a 10.9 per-target average in Weeks 5-6. But Robinson's average plunged to a season-low 5.4 in Week 7.

Week 7 Targeted Air Yards Leaders 

DeVante Parker leads all receivers in targeted air yards (17), followed by Chris Conley (16.8), Darius Slayton (16.5), Kenny Golladay (16), Stefon Diggs (15.8), Terry McLaurin (15.7), Mike Evans (15.7), Demarcus Robinson (15.6), James Washington (15.3), and D.K. Metcalf (15). Curtis Samuel is 11th overall (14.8), followed by Zay Jones (14.6), Mike Williams (14.6), Robby Anderson (14.6), Brandin Cooks (14.5), Ted Ginn (14.4), Preston Williams (14.4), John Brown (14.1), and D.J. Chark (14). Five other receivers are averaging a percentage of 13+, while nine additional receivers are averaging 12+

Keenan Allen has resurfaced as the league leader in air yards (861), followed by Mike Evans (829), Julio Jones (810), DeAndre Hopkins (730), and the now-injured Will Fuller (703). While no other receivers have eclipsed 700 yards, a total of 16 receivers have accumulated over 600  - Stefon Diggs (697), Kenny Golladay (660), Mike Williams (656), Michael Thomas (655), and D.J. Chark (650) and DeVante Parker (650) lead that collection of receivers.

% Share Of Team’s Air Yards Leaders

Robby Anderson leads all receivers in percentage share of teams air yards (TAY%) (45.5). Allen Robinson has soared to second overall (44.9), followed by Stefon Diggs (43.6), Terry McLaurin (43.4), Michael Thomas (43.3), Courtland Sutton (41.8), Curtis Samuel (38.4), Mike Evans (37.4), John Brown (36.6), and Odell Beckham (35.8) completing the top 10. D.J. Chark (35,6), Keenan Allen (35.4), Kenny Golladay (34), Julio Jones (33.8), Adam Thielen (33.6), DeVante Parker (32.3), Will Fuller (32.1), Preston Williams (31.7), DeAndre Hopkins (31.5, and Emmanuel Sanders (30.9 are also among the top 20 in this category.

DeVante Parker’s percentage share of 32.7 has nearly doubled the share that he attained during 2018 (17.1). Marques Valdez-Scantling leads the Packers (27.7) as Davante Adams remains sidelined with his toe issue. Brandin Cooks’ percentage of 28.7 leads the Rams, followed by Cooper Kupp (22.0) and Robert Woods (20.8). Corey Davis’ team share of 24.5 is exactly two percentage points ahead of rookie A.J. Brown. Both receivers were beneficiaries of the transition from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, and the numbers from their first game with Tannehill under center will be examined in the 5 Things I Noticed section.

Week 7 Red Zone Target Leaders 

Michael Thomas now leads all receivers in red zone targets (11), followed by four players that have been targeted 10 times - Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, and Mike Evans. Five receivers have also collected nine red zone targets - Marvin Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Auden Tate and Seahawk receivers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, and T.Y. Hilton have all captured eight targets inside the 20.

Jones had been targeted four times in the red zone prior to Week 7. But Matthew Stafford distributed five passes to Jones during Detroit’s matchup with Minnesota. That resulted in the highest weekly total among all receivers. Robinson, Lockett, DeVante Parker, and second-year receiver Zach Pascal of the Colts all collected three red zone targets. 10 different wide receivers collected two targets inside the 20 including Dede Westbrook, Preston Williams, and Keke Coutee.

Larry Fitzgerald received five targets inside the 10 during Weeks 1-2, and he has maintained the league lead in that category throughout the season. He remains tied for first with Golladay (7), even though neither receiver captured a target inside the 10 during Week 7. Hilton is third overall with six targets, followed by Jones, Sanders, Godwin, Mike Williams, and Jarvis Landry with five. Sutton, Julian Edelman, and Terry McLaurin are among 10 wide receivers that have been targeted four times inside the 10.

Week 7 Snap Count Leaders

DeAndre Hopkins paced all receivers in offensive snaps during the 2018 regular season and he has now moved into a tie with Tyler Lockett for the league lead once again (479). Robert Woods is third (478), followed by Julian Edelman (452), Michael Thomas (445), Nelson Agholor (443), and Brandin Cooks (441). Seven additional receivers have performed on at least 400 snaps - Tyler Boyd (433), Cooper Kupp (430), Keenan Allen (427), Courtland Sutton (425), Larry Fitzgerald (420), Will Fuller (407), and Chris Godwin (404).

Hopkins also leads in offensive snap percentage (97.4), followed by Odell Beckham (97.2), Chris Godwin (95.1), Jarvis Landry (94.5), Tyler Lockett (94.3), Thomas (93.9), Woods (93.7), Allen Robinson (93.2), Robby Anderson (92.5), and Courtland Sutton completing the top 10 (91.6). Five other receivers have eclipsed 90%  - Keenan Allen (91), Nelson Agholor (90.8), Tyler Boyd (90.6), Mike Evans (90.4), and D.J. Moore (90). Moore’s teammate Curtis Samuel leads a group of 18 other receivers that have played on at least 80% of their team’s offensive snaps.

Hopkins was also the only receiver who played on 100% of his team’s offensive snaps in Week 7. Lockett, Boyd, and Golden Tate all collected a 99% snap count, while  Terry McLaurin (98%), Allen Robinson (97%). Darius Slayton (97%), Courtland Sutton (96%), Marvin Jones (96%), John Brown (95%), and Mike Williams (95%) were also contained within the top 10. Keenan Allen, Kenny Stills, Michael Thomas, and Alex Erickson were involved in 94% of their teams’ snaps while leading a group of 11 receivers who attained a snap count percentage of 90+.

Five Things I Noticed 

1. It is not a coincidence that Tennessee wideouts Corey Davis and A.J. Brown both established new season highs in multiple categories during the Titans’ matchup with the Chargers, as both receivers thrived in Ryan Tannehill's first game under center. Davis was averaging 4.5 targets and just 2.6 receptions per-game while Marcus Mariota was guiding Tennessee's passing attack. But he established new season bests in both categories (7 targets/6 receptions), while also generating 80 yards and a touchdown. Brown entered Week 7 averaging 3.8 targets and 2.3 receptions-per-game. But he proceeded to pace the Titans with a season-high eight targets, while also collecting a season-best six receptions. Tannehill connected on 23 of his 29 attempts while generating 312 yards and two touchdowns. He also attained a quarterback rating of 107.3 which was nearly 16 points higher than Mariota's rating from Weeks 1-6 (91.7), and Tannehill's 80% completion percentage easily exceeded Mariota's 59.1. Tannehill's average of 10.1 yards-per-attempt was nearly three yards higher than Mariota's 7.4, while Tannehill's average target depth also surpassed Mariota's (9.2/7.5). If he maintains the willingness to launch throws into tight windows, it will boost the reception and yardage totals for Davis, while also providing Brown with more opportunities to explode for big plays. This should provide sizable encouragement to anyone who owns Davis or Brown. It also presents an opportunity to seize either receiver from the waiver wire, where they have been discarded by frustrated former owners. Davis and Brown enter Week 8 with an enticing matchup against Tampa Bay and could become valuable resources as we progress into the fantasy postseason.

2. Kenny Stills averaged 28 offensive snaps during his first three games as a Texan, then performed on just 11 snaps before a hamstring issue forced him to from the lineup in Week 4. But he resurfaced with an expanded role in Week 7 after Will Fuller encountered his own hamstring injury. Stills ultimately played on a season-high 61 snaps against division rival Indianapolis and is now primed to continue operating as Houston’s WR2 during Fuller's absence. If you extract his Week 4 matchup - during which he exited in the first quarter - he had averaged 54.6 yards-per-game before accruing a season-high 105 yards against the Colts. He also averaged a season-high in yards-per-reception (26.3) which propelled him to second among all receivers in that category (19.5). Stills leads all receivers in yards-per-target (15.4) among those who have been targeted at least 15 times, and he has also captured six receptions of 20+ yards. Keke Coutee has performed on 42.7% of the Texans' offensive snaps while operating in the slot on 71% of those plays. He should see an increase in usage due to Fuller’s injury. However, Stills should become the primary beneficiary of additional targets, which should result in favorable reception and yardage totals. He is an excellent waiver wire addition and can be started with confidence this week against the Raiders.

3. Courtland Sutton has been rewarding anyone who invested in him during their drafts by easily exceeding the expectations of his Round 8 ADP. Now, the exodus of Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco will bolster Sutton's chances of delivering a breakout season. Sutton's potential to deliver a significant increase in his production was discussed prior to Week 1 and he has emerged as a dynamic downfield presence during his first seven matchups. His name consistently appears among the league leaders in multiple categories, while approaching the threshold of weekly WR2 status for his owners. He is currently tied for second among all receivers in receptions of 40+ (4), 11^th in receptions of 20+ yards (8), sixth in percentage share of team's air yards (41.8), and eighth among wide receivers in yards-after-catch (175). Sutton is also sixth in receiving yards (564), and 15th in yards-per-target (10.4) His 10 red zone targets tie him for second overall, and he has already exceeded his total during his 2018 rookie season (8). Sutton will now commandeer a higher percentage of opportunities, as Sander competitor for targets (6.3 per-game/19.5% team target share). Daesean Hamilton should benefit from a surge in usage. But Sutton's numbers have already propelled him to WR11 in fantasy scoring, and his path to a breakout season has been cleared of its last remaining hurdle.

4. While Sutton is ascending into a lofty tier, other members of the 2018 draft class are experiencing mixed results during their second seasons. Christian Kirk was averaging 9.3 targets-per-game, captured 16 of his 20 targets and accrued 173 yards in Weeks 2-3 before an ankle issue stalled his production. D.J. Moore is averaging 8.2 targets-per-game and is second to Sutton in yardage (425). Calvin Ridley is averaging 6.3 targets-per-game, has accrued seven catches of 20+yards and has scored four times. Michael Gallup is fifth overall in yards-per-game (84.5), Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging 19.8 yards-per-reception, and has generated 99+ yards in two different contests. Anthony Miller has collected 16 targets since Week 6, Keke Coutee's responsibilities are expanding, and Dante Pettis has been a massive disappointment. However, it is a receiver that was added from your league's waiver wire that is currently experiencing the most productive season. D.J. Chark leads all second year-receivers in fantasy points (WR5), is fourth in receiving yards (581), second in receptions of 20+ yards (12), seventh in yards-per-reception (17.6), and 11th in percentage share of team’s air yards (35.67). The 6'4" Chark is also tied for third with five touchdowns, and his blend of size and speed should help him join Sutton in providing the most prolific numbers among this receiving class.

5. After Freddie Kitchens ascended into the role of offensive coordinator for the final eight games of 2018, Cleveland averaged an additional 53 yards-per-game (395/352). This provided a legitimate reason for optimism regarding the numbers that might be produced with a full season of Kitchens and Baker Mayfield engineering the Browns' attack. That enthusiasm rose even further when the mercurial Odell Beckham joined the team in March. But the Cleveland enters Week 8 with an uninspiring ranking of just 21st in total offense, while the Browns are averaging 351 yards-per-game. There are various reasons why Cleveland’s season has been disappointing, but the play of Jarvis Landry is not among them. The numbers that he has attained through six matchups are impressive, and should not be overlooked. Landry averaged 7.0 yards-per-target from 2014 to 2018, and the highest that he attained occurred in 2016 (8.7). But he is currently averaging a career-best 10.0 yards per-target, and that increase is consistent with a rise throughout numerous categories. His average of 17.6 yards-per-reception places him ninth overall, is a whopping 5.5 yards higher than his previous career-best (2016-12.1) and is over seven yards higher than his career average (10.48). while that average also places him ninth overall. Landry is also tied for third among all receivers with 10 receptions of 20+ yards even though he was absent in Week 7 due to Cleveland’s bye. He has also commandeered a 23.2% team target share and is also seventh among all receivers with 195 yards after the catch. Landry is also averaging a career-high 73.2 yards-per-game, as his owners have received a favorable return on their sixth-round investment.

More Fantasy Football Analysis