X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Method to the Matchups Madness - An In-Depth Look

By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Chris Mangano, RotoBaller's resident NFL matchups expert, explains his methodology for ranking his "loves" and "hates" each week for fantasy football owners looking for start/sit advice.

Last year was my first year writing the matchups column for RotoBaller, and let me tell you it was a bear. Covering 12-14 games every week, and having to write about every single relevant player from each team is a time-consuming task no one should have to embark on. So when I signed up to do it again my first thought was "what the hell are you doing, man?" Even as I was spending 20+ hours a week a year ago writing the column, I knew there had to be a better way. I just had to find it. Well, I am happy to report that not only did I find it, but in the process I feel like I found a better way to determine the strengths of matchups as well. Basically, it is a win for everybody.

Since you clicked on this link I can only assume you are a nerd like me, and you want to understand how the matchups are calculated and why Player A is ranked high but Player B is ranked low. That's a good thing! I think it is important to not just blindly follow what someone says. There are a lot of "experts" out there with opinions - some good, some bad.

The nice thing about these matchups is there is 100% no bias in it at all. It is strictly driven by numbers and skill at a player versus player level. Often you might here someone say "sit player X because the Ravens give up the fewest points to running backs." But this ignores many factors that can impact a matchup in a given week. What if the Ravens played terrible run teams so far? What if they have injuries to key run-stoppers and no longer posses a good run defense? What if they are playing Barry Sanders? Football is a game played by teams, but the teams are made up of individuals. Like everyone, some individuals are better at certain things than others. By looking at the matchups at an individual level, not just of the offensive player but of all the defensive players as well, we get a much more accurate representation of what will happen. Plus, when an injury happens we can quickly swap out the injured player for his replacement and immediately see the effect it has on the defense and the matchup. Let's dig into the gritty details.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Player Evaluation

I use Pro Football Focus (PFF) for all my player evaluations. I tested with them a few years ago and let me tell you, it is rigourous and they demand incredible accuracy. I didn't even come close to making the cut, the attention to detail they put into every player is mind-blowing. There is no one better in the business in my opinion. Are they 100% accurate? Probably not. They're human. But I would bet money they are at worst 98% or better. I'll take that.

By using player evaluations, I can see how a player performs in certain situations. How good is a running back at running the ball? What about pass catching? Is a linebacker better in pass coverage or run defense? Is that interior lineman a great pass protector but poor at opening holes for his backs? Luckily PFF does this for me, I just have to collect the data.

So that's the first step, collect the data. I collect data for every fantasy relevant offensive player, every starting offensive lineman, and a team's entire starting defense. This way when I look at a player who runs half his routes from the left, I can see how he matches up against the defenses right corner. If a running back primarily is asked to line up to the left side of his line, I can see how the left side of the line stacks up against the right side of the defensive line. I can do this with literally every position and get a look, at an individual level, to see where the best matchups lie. I don't know of any other matchup tool that does this (though they may exist).

Once I have all player data collected, I can then build matchups at a positional level. Let's look at each of those.

 

Quarterbacks

For quarterbacks I start with pressure. Pressure is the best way to stop a passing game and teams that apply more pressure are generally better against the pass. But pressure is not a one-way street. Just because a team has a strong front seven doesn't mean the quarterback will have less time to throw. If his offensive line can neutralize the front seven then he should have a clean pocket. So pressure is determined by looking at how well each offensive lineman pass protects, versus the player they will likely be tasked with blocking. A negative pressure number means the defense has the advantage, while a positive number means the offense has the advantage. Obviously, when targeting a quarterback you want one who has a positive number in this category.

Next I look at directional stats. Essentially I look at what percentage of the time a quarterback targets the left, middle, or right side of the field. I get this data from FFStatistics (ffstatistics.com). Quick shout out to Addison Hayes who has collected tons of data on his site, it is a must for fantasy players and is completely free. Though you should go donate. Once I know where a quarterback likes to throw the ball, I can look at the players that will likely be guarding that area of the field. Once I know where a quarterback prefers to throw, I can look at the wide receivers that are likely to be targeted there and how likely they are to be open versus the defender. It is the receivers job to get open, and the quarterback's job to see them and place the ball accurately. This is where the skill of the quarterback comes in. So by looking at the receivers versus the corners, then the skill of the quarterback, I can come up with a "Coverage" rating. Again, positive numbers are good, negative are bad.

Once I have the pressure and coverage rating, I just combine them to get an overall rating of the matchup. This is the number that will be used for the ranking.

 

Running Backs

Running backs are tricky because they both run the ball and catch the ball. Some run more than catch and some catch more than run. Therefore we have to look at both how likely the offensive line is to open up holes for the back, and how likely the linebackers will be at covering the back.

For rushing I start with directional stats from FFStatistics. I look at how often the player runs left, middle or right. From there I can see how strong the offensive line is on each side versus the defensive line on the same side. For example, a defense may have a very strong defensive line, but if they are only strong on one side, and the offense prefers to run to the other side, this could actually be considered an advantage for the offense. By knowing where a team likes to run the ball, and were defenders generally line up, I can better see advantages and disadvantages at each part of the line. Taking all of this into account gives us the "Rushing" rating.

For pass-catching, I look at the skill of the running back as a pass catcher, versus the skill of the linebackers in coverage. Since linebackers are usually the ones tasked with covering backs out of the backfield this makes the most sense. The number I get from this is called "Receiving", clever I know.

Lastly, I give each running back a "Role" number. 1 for primarily rushing, 2 for primarily catching, and 3 for both. Guys like Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell get the three numbers. There aren't a lot, and that is why they are such hot commodities in the fantasy world. Guys like Jordan Howard, C.J. Anderson and Marshawn Lynch get the 1 number. And players like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson and Tarik Cohen get a 2. Based on a player's role I will put more or less emphasis on the rushing or receiving rating. That way we can more accurately compare Chris Thompson's matchup to Marshawn Lynch's matchup. The number I get from this is called "Rating" and is the final number for the matchup.

 

Wide Receivers

Receivers are pretty easy. Thankfully PFF has a WR/CB matchup chart that shows how often a receiver lines up to the left, the right or in the slot. Once I know how often they line up at each position, I can figure out how often they will face each of the defenses corners. This gives a much better representation of their overall outlook, not just the player they will be facing most often as other WR/CB matchup articles do. This forms the "Rating" number which is the overall outlook of their matchup.

 

Tight Ends

Like receivers, tight ends are pretty easy too. Since defense often use both safeties and linebackers to cover tight ends, I compare the skill of the tight end versus the players who he is likely to be covered by. First I compare him to the linebackers. This gives me the "LBRating" number. Then I compare him to the safeties, this gives me the "SafRating". I then average these two numbers to get a look at how his overall matchup looks, this is the "Rating" number. That's it.

 

Conclusion

I hope this helped you better understand how these matchups are determined. Like I said, it is completely unbiased, as I let the data be my guide. If the data says someone has a good matchup that I don't agree with, I may dig deeper, but I never change the numbers. Use these as a guide too, but don't let them be the end all to your decisions. Remember, ultimately it's your team and your decision, and you have to live with it.

But most importantly remember it's just a game, so have fun!

 

More Fantasy Football Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF