October 13, 2017

Pierre Camus' Week 6 fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2017 NFL season. He compares his rankings to industry consensus for QB, RB, WR, TE.

There was plenty of parity last week, but I have a feeling we're going to see some blowouts on Sunday. It feels a little funny putting a Jets tight end, a Texans quarterback, and a Broncos running back in my top five, but fantasy football is a funny game after all.

As an expert ranker for RotoBaller and FantasyPros, I'll put my own personal rankings out on the table for you here and show you how they stack up against the consensus of the other 100+ experts at FantasyPros. Each week, I'll list my Top 10 per position, plus a few notable players that have risen or fallen in my rankings more than the expert consensus this week.

Note: all rankings are for standard leagues and all opinions are my own. If you have questions, comments, or incoherent ramblings related to fantasy sports, hit me up on Twitter @pfunk00 to continue the conversation.

Week 6 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

Aaron Rodgers below Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson? That's the world we live in now, folks. Not that Rodgers has been anything short of magnificent this season, but he faces a tough Vikings defense against whom he isn't guaranteed a huge game. He beat the stuffing out of them on Christmas Eve last year (347 yards, four TD), but in the four previous games against Minnesota, Rodgers totaled six TD and didn't go over 300 yards. This season, the Vikes have only allowed a 300-yard passer once in five games. He'll be fine, he's just not my top choice.

Watson has left absolutely no room for doubt any more. You couldn't ask for a better matchup than the Cleveland Browns, who allow a league-high 112.4 QBR against, so putting him at No. 3 overall might even be too low.

I'm tentatively putting Marcus Mariota in the top-12, which makes him a low-end QB1 in many leagues. If he's healthy enough to play, he shouldn't hold back passing it downfield against a soft Colts secondary. Indy has shown that it can put up points without Andrew Luck and the Titans defense is nearly as bad as the Colts, so this could be a high-scoring game between division opponents.

The Bucs are still the second-most generous pass defense in the league. So why put Carson Palmer lower this week? First of all, I really don't think Tampa's defense is as bad as they've played early on. Vernon Hargreaves has graded out at a 42, making him one of the worst cover corners so far, but he's a young stud on the rise and he held his own on Thursday night against the Patriots. Second, I do believe the Cards will at least attempt to establish the run with Adrian Peterson, which is why they traded for him. Carson Palmer has been sacked a league-high 19 times and the 37-year-old won't be in one piece much longer at that rate. Finally, Tampa now has a better run game with Doug Martin back and will try to keep Jameis Winston from having to sling it 30+ times a game as well. This looks like pass-happy shootout on the surface, but I am personally taking the under on this one.

Week 6 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

Much like the QB situation last week, we have all four top running backs playing in two games. I'm personally looking forward to the Jags-Rams game most of all, believe it or not, just to see the battle of the young runners. Other than the standard RB1 crew, I'm Rocky Mountain High (not literally) on C.J. Anderson. It seems painfully obvious that the Giants will be overmatched and playing from behind yet again. The Broncos, playing at home no less, should pound the ground with CJA and sprinkle in some Jamaal Charles as well. The Giants are already the fourth-worst run defense in football; if Ben McAdoo has truly lost the clubhouse, there may be even less resistance than usual, which could lead to a huge day for the Denver backfield.

I'll give Elijah McGuire another try based on opportunity alone. Matt Forte has been a limited participant in practice this week and Bilal Powell hasn't practiced at all. The Jets may not get too many opportunities to run the ball, but at least McGuire will be the one to get those carries. Likewise, if Rob Kelley doesn't suit up again, then Chris Thompson stands to benefit in a plus matchup against San Francisco.

Alvin Kamara is a solid PPR flex the rest of the season, but these rankings for standard scoring reflect his limited opportunities in the run game. Remember, it was Adrian Peterson who was traded. Kamara is still a Saint. He won't see more than 10 rushes and in non-PPR leagues, he is TD-dependent for starting value. I also don't trust Javorius Allen's high usage in his "homecoming" game last week. He'll probably split carries with Alex Collins, which is why I have them ranked almost evenly.

Week 6 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

Antonio Brown isn't going anywhere. Despite last week's horror show by Ben Roethlisberger, Brown managed to pull in 10 catches on 19 targets for 157 yards. We know the Steelers will need to keep passing in order to keep up with the Chiefs, so don't fool yourself into selling on AB any time this season. Tyreek Hill is an obvious every-week start, but I like his chances to make plays against this secondary. On a side note, DeMarcus Robinson looks like a super-sneaky tournament play in DFS against a has-been version of Joe Haden.

You can't bench Jordy Nelson, but for the same reason I don't expect a huge game from Aaron Rodgers, I'd be wary of huge production from Nelson. He gets Xavier Rhodes all over him, which hasn't turned out well for opposing WR. If anything, Davante Adams could be the best Packer to play this week.

Pierre Garcon somehow almost snuck all the way up to my Top 10 WR list this week. The Niners aren't winning, but the pass offense is working, if nothing else. He hasn't been efficient, but Hoyer has gone over 300 yards with two TD in two of the last three games. Washington will be without Josh Norman, so there's room for Garcon to go off.

Who knows what's going on in Arizona's receiving corps? Any given week you'll have two or three guys on the injury report and three or four viable fantasy options. Nelson has shown the most big-play ability and is averaging 16.3 yards per receptions. John Brown might be the most talented, but he is the most likely to miss time or get re-injured. Jaron Brown has been a little-used backup receiver over his five NFL seasons, but has already eclipsed his career highs this season with 244 yards and 35 targets. He just isn't startable unless Nelson or the other Brown is out.

Week 6 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

I hate that I feel compelled to keep putting Gronk as the overall TE1, but if he's playing then you just have to. As I type this, I know that having Zach Ertz locked in at #2 paid off, as he's scored two touchdowns. The only surprise here is Austin Seferian-Jenkins climbing into the top five after three weeks of game action. He was up to eight targets last week and gets to face a generous New England defense in a game where the script will certainly see them fighting from behind. Given the state of the TE position, he is a fantasy starter.

I'm going all in on A.J. Derby this week. It's a simple fact: the Giants have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every single game this season, six overall in five contests. Derby finally showed up before the bye week with 75 yards and a touchdown and could continue his ascension as a fantasy asset with another strong showing here. FWIW, I'm putting my money where my mouth is and starting Derby in about four different leagues this week.

Generally speaking, I like Jordan Reed and Martellus Bennett less each and every week. I don't want to rely on a player like Reed who is questionable seemingly every week and hasn't scored a single TD yet this season. Wake me up when Bennett starts to actually do something on the field in consecutive games.

More Week 6 Lineup Prep