Week 6 Fantasy Football Matchups We Love: The Fantasy Matchmaker

Welcome to Week 6 of my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker. In this series, I am looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups I love based on their opponent’s strength (or weakness) versus that position.

The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and strength of opponent is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly, but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 6 includes what each team has given up in Weeks 1-5 (including the average). I also incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to what their opponents have averaged at each position. For example, when comparing raw fantasy points allowed per game and opponent-adjusted fantasy points allowed per game, one of the biggest discrepancies is the Ravens versus WRs. The Ravens are ranked 15^th versus WRs in raw fantasy PPG allowed. But they are ranked 27^th (sixth-easiest) when adjusting for opponents faced. So, while they have been middle of the pack in giving up fantasy points to WRs, they have been giving up more fantasy points than their opponents’ WRs have averaged, allowing f 5.8 PPG above average. Outside of their game against the Browns, the Ravens have allowed opposing WRs to score above average in every game. Now, in my process, the answer lies somewhere in the middle, with the Ravens currently ranked 19^th.

RotoBaller generates positional and overall player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week, which will be included when looking at matchups for each positional group. The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings so you can see the matchup strength for the must-starts as well as for borderline starters, flex options, and desperation dart throws. I encourage you to check out the RotoBaller Week 6 ranks, available here.

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Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups

The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 6. The table includes the QB, the Week 6 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the Rotoballer positional rankings.

The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).

 

Week 6: QB Matchups We Love

Gardner Minshew (QB20):

Minshew steps right in for the injured Anthony Richardson and gets a road matchup with the 23^rd-ranked Jaguars. Typically when a backup QB gets the nod following an injury to the starter, I would not immediately throw them onto any kind of “love” list, but I love the matchup. The Jaguars have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, allowed the 10^th-highest yards per pass attempt, and teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts (62.2% pass rate) against them. Other than Desmond Ridder, the Jaguars have allowed each QB they’ve faced to outscore their season fantasy PPG.

Minshew also has multiple positives surrounding his sudden role as the starter. The Colts have two effective RBs (Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss), Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Josh Downs have proven to be reliable WRs, and the Colts have the fourth-best offensive line according to PFF. The Colts defense has given up the 11^th-most points per game (23.8), and with a solid over-under of 46.5 points, this game could approach shoot-out territory.

Who else is excited for Minshew Mania Part 9? pic.twitter.com/VkYwFApFqp

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) October 11, 2023

Bryce Young (QB23):

Young faces off against the 26^th-ranked Dolphins on the road in Week 6. This is a matchup I love for multiple reasons. The Dolphins are arguably the best offense in the NFL and the Panthers are hanging onto this season for dear life after starting 0-5. With one of the highest over-under point totals (48.5) and highest point spreads of Week 6 (+13.5 for the Panthers), the Panthers will likely be playing from behind early and often in this game. The Panthers’ implied team total of 21 points is not great, but the Panthers’ 63.1% pass rate is the third-highest in the NFL.

Young has yet to put up a big fantasy day but I think he does in Week 6. The Panthers are a mess at the RB position so the scoring, which could easily exceed the 21-point implied total due to garbage time, is likely to come through the air. Young has put up over 200 passing yards in each game since returning from injury and threw three TD passes in Week 5 versus a slightly tougher QB matchup (Lions).

 

Week 6: Not Great, Bob – QB Matchups to Avoid

Jared Goff (QB14):

Goff faces one of the toughest fantasy QB matchups in Week 6 against the Buccaneers. Fresh off of their Week 5 bye, the Buccaneers have held every QB they’ve faced below that QB’s season-long PPG, including Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts. Cousins did have a decent game against them in Week 1, throwing for 344 yards and two TDs. Cousins finished as the QB9 that week with 17.5 fantasy points. Jalen Hurts also finished as the QB9 versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, but 8.8 of his 21.9 fantasy points that week came on the ground, and Goff is not a runner. Justin Fields finished as the QB20 in Week 2 and Derek Carr finished as the QB32 in Week 4. This matchup to avoid is mainly due to the matchup, as I like Goff from a season-long lens. But the Buccaneers are much softer versus RBs (17^th) and I think the Lions lean on David Montgomery in this game.

Buccaneers are going to humble the Lions. Detroit hasn’t faced a defense even as close as good as the Bucs. I’m here for it. https://t.co/GqCTjAFax1

— JC Cornell (@CornellNFL) October 8, 2023

Sam Howell (QB13):

You can see how precarious the matchups game can be when it comes to borderline QBs. Howell was a hit on the matchups I love list in Week 5. But this week he gets a road matchup with the 15^th-ranked Falcons. Relatively speaking, this is one of the better matchups than would typically make the matchups to avoid list. At 15^th, the Falcons are right in the middle so far versus fantasy QBs. But the Falcons have proven to be a much better all-around defensive unit than expected, and Howell will have a tough time scoring fantasy points. I have half-jokingly been calling Howell a modern-day Blake Bortles.

A QB of questionable talent who can thrive, fantasy-wise, in garbage time. For much of their Week 5 game, it looked like Howell was going to be yet another miss for me in this article series. But he turned it on late in catch-up mode to put up 388 passing yards and ended up the QB5 on the week. The problem is I expect a completely different type of game against the Falcons. The 42.5 over-under for this game is one of the lowest of Week 6, and if the Falcons can dictate the game flow with heavy doses of their running game, it will keep the scoring and volume opportunity down, and it is the volume opportunity  Howell needs to put up solid fantasy numbers. Howell is the quintessential matchup-based QB streamer, and his Week 6 matchup has me leaving him on my bench or the waiver wire.

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups

The following WR table shows the Top 80 WRs for Week 6 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.

 

Week 6: WR Matchups We Love

Garrett Wilson (WR31):

This call may seem strange at first. A WR receiving targets from Zach Wilson against the Philadelphia Eagles. And yes, the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have been giving up serious fantasy points to the WR position. The Eagles rank 30^th versus fantasy WRs (third-easiest). I did have an urge to qualitatively move them up in the rankings because “that can’t be right.” But it is. While the Eagles have stifled RBs to the tune of holding them six PPG below their average, it has been the opposite versus WRs. The Eagles have allowed opposing WRs to score 7.6 PPG more than those WR groups’ season average. Here are where the Eagles stand in a few statistics allowed to the WR position:

• WR targets allowed per game: 26.8 (Tied for highest with the Seahawks)
• WR target share allowed: 68.7% (third-highest)
• WR receiving yards per game: 187.2 (seventh-highest)
• WR TDs per game: 1.6 (second-highest)

No team has had more targets thrown to WRs against them then the Eagles. They’ve also given up the 2nd most TDs to WRs. Can we get a Garrett Wilson blow up game plz?!

— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) October 11, 2023

Tutu Atwell (WR48):

Atwell gets the 28^th-ranked (fifth-easiest) matchup in Week 6 versus the Cardinals. This one might also seem off with the return of Cooper Kupp in addition to the emergence of Puka Nacua. And this is more of a dart throw/sleeper call, but Atwell is in a good position for a few reasons. He has already shown he can put up fantasy points, finishing as the WR14 in both Week 1 and Week 3 (half PPR). Atwell still saw a 15% target share even in Kupp’s Week 5 return, and he should remain involved moving forward. The reason for that, according to JJ Zachariason of LateRoundQB.com on his October 11 podcast, is because the Rams run the highest percentage of 11-personnel in the NFL (over 90% of the time). One of the keys of that personnel is it includes three WR sets. With Van Jefferson traded away, Atwell will still see the field on the majority of pass plays and garner solid opportunity against a soft WR matchup. And just look how close Atwell was to a huge day in Week 5.

Tutu Atwell near 63-yard house call sheeshpic.twitter.com/uQTpbWpHeX

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 9, 2023

 

Week 6: Not Great, Bob – WR Matchups to Avoid

Marquise Brown (WR21):

Brown lines up across from the fifth-ranked Rams in Week 6. Outside of allowing 20 receptions for over 200 yards to the Bengals’ WRs in Week 3, the Rams have held the majority of their opponents’ WR groups well below their PPG. Even with the Bengals game included, the Rams have held opposing WRs an average of 5.9 PPG under those groups’ season averages, including games with the Seahawks, 49ers, Colts, and Eagles. Geno Smith hit D.K. Metcalf for a TD pass in Week 1 versus the Rams. That is the only TD they have allowed to a WR all season. You could argue that positive regression will eventually tick their WR TDs allowed up, but I don’t think that will be in Week 6 with Joshua Dobbs at QB for the Cardinals.

DeVonta Smith (WR17):

I realize that both of these WR matchups I am suggesting to avoid involve WRs you may not be able to afford to bench. But the second-ranked Jets have been a brutal matchup for WRs so far this season. Here are the same allowed statistics to WRs for the Jets that I presented for the Eagles above:

• WR targets allowed per game: 15.8 (Tied for third-lowest)
• WR target share allowed: 49.7% (lowest by more than 2%)
• WR receiving yards per game: 88.4 (lowest)
• WR TDs per game: 0.2 (tied for lowest)

You are starting AJ Brown regardless of matchup, but if I can I am leaving Smith on my bench against the Jets.

 

Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups

The following RB table shows the Top 60 RBs for Week 6 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.

I have also added a column to this chart. Last week I introduced my ranking for RB points from receiving output only (PFR). The PFR ranks are included next to the overall RB ranks. What we are looking for with that side-by-side inclusion are discrepancies that may change the outlook of a matchup (depending on the RB).

Through five weeks, there are not as many distinct discrepancies between these two types of “versus RBs” ranks as there will be later in the season.

Currently, the notable differences include the following:

• The Panthers rank six spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB. However, they are bad against both, so there is not much to glean from that.
• The Bengals are an okay matchup for the general fantasy RB position but rank eight spots higher (tougher) and are Top 10 versus RB PFR. Impacted players: None. Kenneth Walker is not a pass-catching RB.
• The Seahawks show a difference but in the opposite direction. Seattle ranks 15^th versus the general RB position and they rank 13 spots worse (28^th) versus RB PFR. Impacted players: Joe Mixon. This could be significant for Mixon as he has already averaged over three targets per game and has no real competition for RB targets. The Seahawks have been tough against the rushing side of RB output, as they have allowed the lowest yards per carry to RBs in the NFL. Mixon could see an uptick in targets with the Seahawks being the fifth-easiest rank versus RB PFR.
• The Giants rank as an above-average RB matchup (23^rd-ranked) but have been much tougher against pass-catching RBs (12^th). Impacted players: James Cook. On paper, this looks like a smash matchup for the entire Bills offense, but Cook’s ceiling could be limited if the Giants remain tough against RB PFR.
• The Vikings show a similar trend, ranking 18^th versus RBs and 9^th versus RB PFR. Impacted players: None. Neither Roschon Johnson nor D’Onta Foreman are pass-catching RBs.
• The 49ers have been stout against fantasy RBs ranking 11^th according to my fantasy points allowed system. They rank five spots worse (16^th) versus RB PFR. They are still not an ideal matchup but it does show they can be beat by RBs through the air. Impacted players: Jerome Ford. Ford’s brutal matchup versus the 49ers looks a little better with their “meh” rank versus RB PFR.

Here is the chart showing these discrepancies more clearly:

Now onto Week 6 RB matchups I love.

 

Week 6: RB Matchups We Love

Alexander Mattison (RB17):

I have been all over the place with Mattison this season. I do not think he is a special talent and his snap share has been creeping down after the trade for Cam Akers. This may end up a messy split backfield sooner rather than later, but I am rolling Mattison out for one more week strictly based on the matchup against the second-easiest RB opponent (Bears). Full transparency, I am also going with Mattison because the typical range of RBs I like to target based on matchup (other than the obvious starts) fall in the RB2-RB3 range. Turns out this is a bad week for RB matchups in that range as you can see mostly red and orange-shaded matchups. But we have two teams on bye and a slew of RB injuries, so this type of matchup, even for an RB I am not high on, is one I am targeting in Week 6.

Week 6: Not Great Bob, RB Matchups to Avoid

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB16):

Robinson Jr. draws the toughest fantasy RB matchup in Week 6. I mentioned the Falcons last week because of how surprising it was they were the toughest RB matchup. It’s worth repeating because they remain at the top. Overall RB output.  RB PFR. It doesn’t matter, they’re the top-ranked toughest matchup in both. The Falcons have held opposing RBs 6.8 PPG below their average, including allowing only 86 rushing yards per game and they’ve yet to allow an RB TD.

Robinson Jr. is coming off an abysmal Week 5 in which he saw season lows in snap share (36%), rush attempts (six), and rushing yards (10). The Commanders were in a negative game script and Robinson Jr. did see four targets, but this type of game against the 31^st-ranked Bears leaves me with no confidence against the top-ranked Falcons.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB30):

McLaughlin was a popular waiver wire add this week but he’s a risky start unless you’re desperate. The Broncos face the sixth-toughest RB matchup on the road in Kansas City in Week 6. The Chiefs also rank 5^th versus RB PFR. Granted, McLaughlin has looked explosive the last two games, rushing for a combined 140 yards on 16 carries (8.8 YPC), adding 53 yards and two TDs through the air. This call could backfire if the Broncos ride his momentum to try and keep up with their division rival. But the combination of the brutal road matchup with the likely return of Javonte Williams (and the continued involvement of Samaje Perine) has me avoiding the “shiny new toy” syndrome with McLaughlin.

 

Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups

The following TE table shows the Top 29 TEs for Week 6 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs. I had to remove Darren Waller at the last minute so the Top 30 just morphed into the Top 29.

 

Week 6: TE Matchups We Love

Logan Thomas (TE8):

I’ve discussed the Falcons defense and how good it is. But they have shown one weakness. They rank as the easiest matchup for fantasy TEs through the first five weeks. The third time’s a charm. Here are the same statistics allowed to TEs by the Falcons as discussed above for WRs with the Eagles and Jets:

• TE targets allowed per game: 9.0 (third-highest)
• TE target share allowed: 30.2% (highest)
• TE receiving yards per game: 62.6 (fifth-highest)
• TE TDs per game: 0.6 (tied for third-highest)

Thomas dominated a TE-friendly matchup in Week 5 (26^th-ranked Bears), catching nine of 11 targets for 77 yards and a score, finishing as the TE4. With an even better matchup this week, Thomas is a must-start in Week 6.

Logan Thomas continues to defy the odds.

"Bust" QB, clawed his way back as a TE, & eventually broke out with a 110-target season & Top-5 fantasy finish at Age 29.

Now averaging 11.6 PPG, (TE6 through WK5; 7.3+ fantasy points in every game), post-ACL recovery, at Age 32.

Bravo.

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) October 9, 2023

 

Week 6: Not Great Bob, TE Matchups to Avoid

Tyler Higbee (TE16):

You likely have better options than Higbee. He is included here because a glance at the matchup might lead to the appeal to start him. And yes, the Cardinals are a great matchup for fantasy QBs (29^th) and WRs (28^th). But they are the third-toughest TE matchup, including games against Logan Thomas, Darren Waller, and George Kittle. The Cardinals have allowed nine receiving yards over the last two games. Nine. A number so low that, grammatically, I still have to spell it out. Start your Rams against the Cardinals, just not Tyler Higbee.

I will finish with my “Postmortems,” looking back across each position at my Week 4 loves and “not great, Bobs” to see how I did.

 

Last Week's Postmortems

I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a post-mortem of the previous week’s likes and dislikes. I will subjectively judge myself based on the results of the previous week, with my take either being a “HIT” or a “MISS,” or in some cases a “PUSH.”

Week 5 QB Matchups I Loved

Sam Howell

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: QB13
• Week 5 Matchup: CHI (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 5 Finish: QB5 (26.4 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Joshua Dobbs

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: QB18
• Week 5 Matchup: CIN (Rank: 23^rd)
• Week 5 Finish: QB21 (10.7 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 5 QB Matchups I Avoided

Trevor Lawrence

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: QB10
• Week 5 Matchup: BUF (Rank: 1^st)
• Week 5 Finish: QB15 (15.7 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Russell Wilson

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: QB20
• Week 5 Matchup: NYJ (Rank: 10^th)
• Week 5 Finish: QB13 (18.7 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 5 QB Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

Week 5 WR Matchups I Loved

Zay Flowers

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: WR23
• Week 5 Matchup: PIT (Rank: 31^st)
• Week 5 Finish: WR27 (7.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Rashee Rice

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: WR41
• Week 5 Matchup: MIN (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 5 Finish: WR20 (9.3 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 5 WR Matchups I Avoided

Courtland Sutton

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: WR32
• Week 5 Matchup: NYJ (Rank: 2^nd)
• Week 5 Finish: WR72 (1.3 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Calvin Ridley

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: WR14
• Week 5 Matchup: BUF (Rank: 3^rd)
• Week 5 Finish: WR9 (13.6 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 5 WR Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

Week 5 RB Matchups I Loved

Breece Hall

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: RB16
• Week 5 Matchup: DEN (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 5 Finish: RB3 (24.4 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Aaron Jones

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: RB14
• Week 5 Matchup: LV (Rank: 23^rd)
• Week 5 Finish: Did Not Play
• Verdict: N/A

Week 5 RB Matchups I Avoided

Dameon Pierce

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: RB20
• Week 5 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 1^st)
• Week 5 Finish: RB22 (8.2 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Miles Sanders

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: RB28
• Week 5 Matchup: DET (Rank: 3^rd)
• Week 5 Finish: RB55 (1.2 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 5 RB Hit Rate: 100% (3-0)

Week 5 TE Matchups I Loved

Dalton Schultz

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: TE14
• Week 5 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 5 Finish: TE5 (12.5 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 4 TE Matchups I Avoided

Cole Kmet

• Week 5 RotoBaller Rank: TE16
• Week 5 Matchup: WAS (Rank: 2^nd)
• Week 5 Finish: TE7 (10.2 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 5 TE Hit Rate: 50% (1-1)

Week 5 Total Hit Rate: 61.5% (8-5)

 

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).

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