RADIO
The end is in sight as we now move on to Week 16 and the fantasy playoff semi-finals in most leagues. The pressure is on in these “lose and go home” games, being so close to the championship game that you can almost taste it. With only two weeks left in the fantasy football season, the look-ahead strategizing is simplified. If you are still streaming, you only have two matchups to look at for each potential option, and there are multiple solid options with varying levels of availability that you can ride for the next two weeks.
Last week’s ranks had some hits and misses. My top-ranked DST (Dolphins) shut out the Jets and scored 24 fantasy points, second only to the Raiders (25 points). Of the Tiers 1-3 defenses, the Dolphins, 49ers, Browns, Saints, Colts, and Raiders scored double-digit fantasy points. The Rams disappointed and the Chargers were a massive miss ranked at 12. The Bills were a surprise, scoring nine fantasy points against the Cowboys, and I should have had the Bears ranked much higher last week (that has been remedied this week).
The Rams have gone from one of my favorite end-of-season DST targets to being buried in Tier 4. The Rams simply have not cashed in on some of the positive matchups on their schedule. They averaged only 4.7 fantasy points versus the Cardinals, Browns, and Commanders. The Broncos and Jets are two teams that disappointed in bad matchups in Week 15 but are solid starts in Week 16. The Bears and Colts are the two hottest DSTs and are both great plays this week. The Packers and Commanders both have ideal Week 16 matchups, but their defenses have been bad enough that they are borderline startable.
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How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but the top DST scorers from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters. If you started the Dolphins or Raiders in Week 15 you increased your chances of winning your matchup significantly.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Cowboys’ DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Panthers’ DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Cowboys’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Panthers’ DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Over Average (POA) allowed is negative seven. Team B’s POA allowed is plus four. I assign weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank.
Along with season-long POA allowed, my formula for adjusted fantasy points allowed also factors in POA allowed over each team’s last five and last three games. I made some minor qualitative adjustments to the ranks to account for current situations not reflected in past results. For instance, in my formula, the Chargers still present as a relatively tough matchup for DSTs, but the majority of the data informing that result also includes Justin Herbert as the Chargers’ starter. Now that the Chargers are relying on Easton Stick at QB, I am manually moving them down. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
Buffalo Bills DST @LAC
Yahoo Rostership: 74%
Vegas Odds: BUF favored by 11.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 15.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 27th
A month ago, I would have told you the stars would need to align almost perfectly to have the Bills DST anywhere near the top of the rankings. And here we are. After stifling one of the NFL’s best offenses (Cowboys) at home in Week 15, the Bills get the newest member of the “play your DST against this team” club. After losing Justin Herbert to injury, the Chargers were completely crushed in Week 15 by the Raiders. The Raiders DST has been playing well as of late, and with Keenan Allen also missing Week 15 I did have Las Vegas ranked highly. But I don’t think many were expecting the Raiders to be the top-scoring DST of the week. This is a situation for which looking at the Chargers’ POA allowed does not tell the current story, as they have only played one game without Herbert. Even so, I have them ranked as the sixth-most favorable DST matchup this week and a suddenly reinvigorated Bills defense at the top of the DST ranks.
Outside of their Week 12 shellacking at the hands of the Eagles, The Bills have not allowed more than 17 points since Week 10. They allowed only 17 points to the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 14, held the Jets to six points in Week 11, and held the Cowboys to 10 points in Week 15. All points count, but it should be noted that the Cowboys only had three points for much of the game, with CeeDee Lamb scoring a late garbage-time TD. After going six straight games without an interception (Weeks 5-10), the Bills have a pick in each of the last four games and have averaged three sacks per game during that stretch.
Has there been a better mid-season acquisition than Rasul Douglas? I thought he would be a good, serviceable starting CB. I had no clue he would be this good and impactful. And he has transitioned into the defense seamlessly. Huge W for Brandon Beane and the Bills pic.twitter.com/2xcZMcjrp1
— Chris Jahnke (@RealChrisJahnke) December 18, 2023
Chicago Bears DST vs. ARI
Yahoo Rostership: 14%
Vegas Odds: CHI favored by 4.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 44
Implied points against: 19.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 20th
Don’t let the low rostership scare you away from the Bears. No defense has shot up the rankings farther than the Bears. Chicago is my second-ranked DST for Week 16 and is in Tier 1, and I was close to ranking them number one. Over the last five games, the Bears’ DST has averaged 12 fantasy PPG, with that average shooting up to 14.7 PPG over the last three games. They have allowed 13 or fewer points in three of the last five games and have averaged a ridiculous three interceptions per game over the last four games. This defense is the definition of red-hot, and they get the 21st-ranked Cardinals at home in Week 16. Arizona has not been the cake DST matchup that it seems like, as their season-long POA allowed is right at zero PPG. But Kyler Murray has not surpassed 256 passing yards or thrown multiple TDs in any of the five games since returning from injury and has thrown four interceptions in that span. If the Bears can get another defensive TD in Week 16 they could threaten for the top unit for the week.
The Bears DST has gone from an afterthought earlier this season to one of the better starts in the fantasy playoffs.
Standard scoring: 14.7 PPG over the last 3 games
They've averaged 3 INTs/game over the last 4 games👀They get ARI and ATL the next two weeks
Fire em up! pic.twitter.com/lrjqwlACJG
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) December 19, 2023
Denver Broncos DST vs. NE
Yahoo Rostership: 47%
Vegas Odds: DEN favored by 6
Over/Under (Total Points): 34.5
Implied points against: 14.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 28th
The Broncos are another DST that has come a long way up the rankings compared to earlier in the season. You will need to shed the recency bias of Week 15, during which the Broncos allowed 42 points to the Lions. The home-road splits for Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense are relatively extreme, and with the way Denver’s defense has played since their Week 9 bye (mostly on the road), I am not fading them at all in a home game against the 28th-ranked Patriots. You can go back to Week 5 and see the improvement in the Broncos’ defense. Set aside Week 15 for a minute. Since Week 5, they have allowed more than 20 points only once, and that was a 24-22 victory in Buffalo. In Week 8, they held the Chiefs to nine points, scoring 17 fantasy points. From Weeks 8 through 14, this DST has averaged 10.5 fantasy points per game, and they have averaged close to four sacks per game over the last five games. The Patriots have a POA allowed of +2.9 PPG on the season and +4 PPG over the last five games. The Broncos are a top play in Week 16.
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
San Francisco 49ers DST vs. BAL
Yahoo Rostership: 99%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 5.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 20
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 7th
The 49ers check in as the highest-ranked DST in the “great defense with a bad matchup” scenario. They face the seventh-ranked Ravens at home in Week 16, but I think they overcome the matchup to turn in another solid point total as they battle for the number one seed in the NFC. While they did surrender 29 points to the Cardinals in Week 15, they were in control for the majority of the game. From Week 10 to Week 14, their points allowed was only 13 PPG. The 49ers have averaged 4.2 sacks and 1.2 interceptions per game over the last five, and are a great start, even with the negative matchup with the Ravens.
49ers pick six 💯
(Via: NFL, CBS)pic.twitter.com/UFrpyDu8WK
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 17, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs DST vs. LV
Yahoo Rostership: 91%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 10
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 15.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 21st
The Chiefs were one of my look-ahead defenses earlier in the season, specifically for their playoff schedule. And while their seven-point fantasy performance against the 28th-ranked Patriots was underwhelming in Week 15, I am still confidently starting them in a home game against the Raiders. I don’t know what to make of the Raiders’ Week 15 offensive explosion against the Chargers, only one week after being shut out by the Vikings. The Raiders’ defense was in a great spot with Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen out, but the Chargers’ defense, while not fantastic, was mostly intact. I’m chalking it up to a flukey game against a Chargers team in peril, with their offense crashing back down to earth on the road in Kansas City.
The Chiefs defense has not allowed an opponent to score 30+ points in 27 consecutive regular season games. pic.twitter.com/uClu3COMYs
— 🗣🎙‼️ (@LanceTHESPOKEN) December 17, 2023
New York Jets DST vs. WAS
Yahoo Rostership: 73%
Vegas Odds: NYJ favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 38
Implied points against: 17.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 29th
The Jets are another DST for which recent bias needs to be ignored. There’s no way around it, the Jets were dismantled in Miami in Week 15, allowing 30 points with no turnovers, but the Dolphins are a brutal DST matchup, especially at home. Now the Jets return home in Week 16 to face the 29th-ranked Commanders, with Jacoby Brissett possibly taking over the starting QB position from Sam Howell. This game has one of the lowest over-under point totals of the week, and the Jets have a solid implied points against of 17.5.
The Jets have been solid in positive matchups and at home this season. In five positive DST matchups they have a points-allowed of only 14.8, and they’ve averaged 9.8 fantasy PPG at home, including double-digit point totals in home games against the Bills, Eagles, Dolphins, and Texans. At a 73% rostership in Yahoo leagues, the Jets are not widely available. However, check your waiver wire later this week in case any of your league mates cut bait after their two-point performance in Week 15.
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
Indianapolis Colts DST @ATL
Yahoo Rostership: 46%
Vegas Odds: IND favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 44.4
Implied points against: 21.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 22nd
The Colts travel to Atlanta to face the 22nd-ranked Falcons in Week 16. Indianapolis is one of the hottest DSTs in the NFL right now, with double-digit fantasy performances and at least four sacks in five of the last six games. They’ve averaged 15 fantasy PPG in those six games. After the Bears and Broncos, the Colts are my favorite DST streamer (<50% rostership) for Week 16. And with a home game against the Raiders in Week 17, the Colts are a solid option to set and forget if you’re able to move on to your championship game.
Houston Texans DST vs. CLE
Yahoo Rostership: 37%
Vegas Odds: HOU favored by 2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 20
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 26th
The Texans' defense was the reason they pulled off an overtime win in Tennessee in Week 15. With CJ Stroud out, the defense needed to step up to keep them in the close battle for the top spot in the AFC South and step up they did, sacking Will Levis seven times. This week they face the 26th-ranked Browns at home, and Joe Flacco, one of the least mobile QBs in the NFL. The Texans have scored at least eight fantasy points in five of the last six games and have averaged 4.7 sacks per game over the last three. Like the Colts, the Texans also have a favorable matchup in Week 17 at home against the Titans. If you don’t have one of the Tier 1 or 2 DSTs, the Texans are a good option.
Sunday’s win over the Titans is one of the best defensive performances I’ve ever seen from the Houston Texans.
From the pass rush to the run defense to the secondary, the entire unit was incredible:
7 sacks
1 INT
2.2 rushing yards per carryAn elite performance in a must-win pic.twitter.com/YcKMjb6D3W
— Chancellor Johnson (@ChancellorTV) December 18, 2023
Cleveland Browns DST @HOU
Yahoo Rostership: 85%
Vegas Odds: HOU favored by 2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 12.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 18th
After a dismal DST performance versus the Rams in Week 13, the Browns have gotten back on track the last two weeks, with 11 fantasy PPG, seven sacks, and seven turnovers (including five interceptions). This week they face the Texans. This rank splits the difference between the two potential QB scenarios for the Texans. C.J. Stroud is still in the NFL’s concussion protocol for the concussion he sustained in Week 14. He has a chance to clear the protocol before Sunday’s game but his status is yet to be determined. If Stroud misses Week 16, the Browns would catapult into Tier 2. If Stroud plays, my rank for Cleveland would drop closer to the bottom of Tier 3.
Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah continues to have a career year in 2023
vs the Bears
-4 pressures (career high)
-1 sack
-1 int (first in his career)
-5 total stopsThe swiss army knife of the Browns defense deserves at least an All-Pro mention#DawgPound
pic.twitter.com/RkhNS6lPgI— Mac🦬 (@tha_buffalo) December 18, 2023
Philadelphia Eagles DST vs. NYG
Yahoo Rostership: 74%
Vegas Odds: PHI favored by 10.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 44
Implied points against: 16.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 30th
It seems like a long time ago that the Eagles were considered an elite DST option. They sneak back into Tier 3 this week largely due to their home matchup with the Giants. The Giants are the third-most favorable DST opponent by adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Eagles made a change with their coaching personnel leading into their Week 15 game in Seattle. Sean Desai was demoted and defensive play-calling was handed to Matt Patricia. This seems like a neutral move (at best) as Patricia has not had much recent success as a head coach or coordinator position. But it does rock the boat a bit for a defense that has struggled.
Losing to a Drew Lock-led Seahawks team seems embarrassing on the surface. But the Eagles’ pass defense, which has been their glaring weakness this season, did not allow much at all until the Seahawks’ final drive and one perfectly thrown dime by Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the game-winner. The Eagles are now in jeopardy of relinquishing the number one seed in the NFC after having a tight grip on it for most of the season. They’ll return home and exorcise their demons against the Giants in Week 16.
Minnesota Vikings DST vs. DET
Yahoo Rostership: 20%
Vegas Odds: DET favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 24.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 11th
The Vikings are the only underdog to make my Top 12 this week, but I am confident they will find success in an “on paper” negative matchup. The Lions are the 11th-toughest DST matchup, and Las Vegas has an implied point total of 24.8 for the Lions. These variables would typically have me shying away from the defense facing them. This rank has some risk. But, Jared Goff and the Lions have not faired well in road games against good defenses. And the Vikings have a good defense. The sample size isn’t huge, but in road games against the Chiefs, Ravens, and the current (and strong) version of the Bears’ defense, the Lions have averaged 13.3 points scored per game. The Vikings have allowed only 13 points per game over the last three, leading to 12.7 fantasy PPG in that same span.
The Vikings are in their own world with how they play defense pic.twitter.com/iTlUePoh05
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) December 16, 2023
Green Bay Packers DST @CAR
Yahoo Rostership: 47%
Vegas Odds: GB favored by 4.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 16
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 31st
The Packers are mostly a matchup play in Week 16 with an advantageous matchup with the Panthers. Carolina ranks as the second-most favorable DST matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Panthers have allowed a positive POA in six of their last seven games, with an average POA allowed of +5.7 PPG over the last five games. Since their Week 7 bye, Carolina has surrendered 4.4 sacks per game.
Green Bay has been a mediocre defense and makes this week’s Top 12 as a matchup upside start. The Packers have scored double-digit fantasy points only twice all season, and only once since their Week 6 bye. They’ve allowed an average of 29 points per game over the last five with less than three sacks per game. They were able to get Baker Mayfield on the ground five times in Week 15 and the Panthers have allowed 4.4 sacks per game over the last five games. I had a tough time ranking the Packers along with the first few teams in Tier 4. It’s the Panthers matchup that gives the Packers the edge, but I would have no issue going with the Dolphins, Lions, or Raiders instead.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams. My favorite Tier 4 DSTs are the Dolphins, Lions, and Raiders.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 16 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 16.
Week 17 Preliminary Rankings
Presenting the remaining schedule as I have throughout the season is not helpful now that there are only two weeks left. Instead, I created preliminary DST rankings for Week 17. The matchup strength and Yahoo rostership are the same as for Week 16.
The Broncos are still below 50% rostership and are the ideal DST to acquire and start both weeks. The Bears are my second choice for a streamer during the final two weeks, and at only 14% rostered they should be available on your waiver wire. The Texans would be my third choice, as I have them as a Top 10 play for both Weeks 16 and 17. A defense I have brought up multiple times in the last month is the Rams, but I have cooled on that unit as a strong DST start as they have not taken advantage of recent advantageous matchups. I would consider them in Week 17 against the Giants, but I have them ranked fairly low this week against the 13th-ranked Saints.
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 16
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 16, here is the full list of ranks for the 32 teams playing this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 16 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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