Week 15 Thursday Night Football Prop Picks: Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

December 16, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchups between the Chargers and Chiefs, and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 15 with the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs: More or Less Contest

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire MORE than 60.5 rushing yards
• Mike Williams MORE than 68.5 receiving yards

This game should be one of the more interesting ones of the week. For the Chiefs, they’re trying to contend for the top spot in the AFC and they need a win this week to do that. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had over 100 rushing yards in the first matchup between these two squads, and the Chargers haven’t gotten any better at slowing down opposing running backs. The only thing that could slow Clyde down is if the Chiefs fall behind big and are forced to throw, but I think their defense keeps them in the game without a problem. 

Mike Williams might be one of the best indicators of team success this season among non-quarterbacks. In seven games with 60 or more receiving yards, the Chargers are 6-1. In the other six games, the Chargers are just 2-4, and he had 58 receiving yards in one of those two wins. In the previous meeting with the Chiefs, Williams caught seven of his nine targets for 122 yards and two touchdowns, as Kansas City largely had no answer for him. With Keenan Allen activated from the covid/reserved list, the Chiefs won’t be able to focus slowly on stopping Williams, and he can hit this number with a big play or two. 

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs: More or Less Contest

• Tyreek Hill LESS than 75.5 receiving yards
• Austin Ekeler LESS than 60.5 rushing yards

Tyreek Hill has been one of the most difficult receivers to slow down in the entire NFL over the last few seasons, but, along with the rest of the offense, this hasn’t been his best year. He has just two games with more than 100 receiving yards, with the most recent coming back in Week 4. In the previous matchup with the Chargers, he caught five of his seven targets for 56 yards. This defense doesn’t like to give up big plays, so this mark would require Hill racking up a ton of targets and yards on underneath routes, which isn’t a reliable plan. 

A couple of factors are working against Austin Ekeler in this one. For one, he’s dealing with an ankle injury, that while described as minor, could make him exit the game at any time. For two, the Chiefs have put up some strong defense against rushing attacks in recent weeks. After allowing opposing teams to rush for 100 or more yards in four of their first five games, they’ve allowed just one of their last four opponents to go over 100 combined rushing yards. Ekeler has only hit this mark four times this season, and he’s only gotten there once in his last six games. This team uses him as a receiver enough that they don’t always have to run him a ton. If this game turns into a track meet, Ekeler won’t be rushing nearly as much as might be expected.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs: Rapid Fire Contest

• Justin Herbert +5.5 passing yards vs Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill -6.5 receiving yards vs Travis Kelce

After experiencing a midseason lull, Justin Herbert has had a solid few games over the last four weeks. He’s thrown for 270 or more yards in all four games, and two of those were blowouts where the team didn’t need him to throw a ton late in games. With Herbert’s weapons on the outside and his ability to thrive under pressure, which he’ll be dealing with this week against a Chiefs’ defense that likes to blitz, he’ll need to throw a good bit. The Chargers also encourage underneath throws while limiting big plays on defense, which puts somewhat of a cap on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense.

In the battle of Hill vs Travis Kelce, Hill gets the nod here for a couple of reasons. For one, Kelce is coming off of back-to-back games with 27 receiving yards. He’s just been unable to produce big numbers that we’re used to seeing on a consistent basis. For two, while we picked under for Tyreek in the last category, he’s still a big-play threat. Even if we lose the previous one because he goes for more than his number, we likely win this one vs Kelce.

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