X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Using SIERA To Identify Underachiever Pitchers Who Could Improve for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

hunter greene fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers pitcher waiver wire

As someone who firmly believes that pitching wins championships, I am always on the lookout for pitchers who could outperform their ADP and turn in a big season. I'm a bit obsessed with pitching really, as pitchers are usually the first guys I click into my DFS lineups and strikeout props have been my favorite thing to bet on in baseball for several seasons now.

There are so many statistics in baseball, it's one of the reasons I love the sport so much, to be honest. But not all stats are created equal and some are much more helpful than others when doing our research. Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around now for over 10 years and much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA.

SIERA attempts to take into account how specific skills (strikeouts, walks, ground balls) interact with each other in order to help pitchers limit runs. SIERA weighs these skills, moving up the skills of pitchers who have high strikeout and/or ground ball rates and low walk rates. What I intend to do is look at some of the biggest disparities between ERA and SIERA from 2022 in an attempt to find some pitchers who should have had lower ERAs based on their skills and who could make nice bounce-back candidates for the 2023 season.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Largest ERA Underachievers in 2022

There were nine pitchers last season who threw 100 innings or more and had a negative differential of one run or more between their SIERA and ERA. Here they are:

It's actually a really interesting list. There are a lot of lefties here (six) and a mixture of some veterans and younger pitchers. There are only a few guys I am going to ignore almost entirely. That would be Patrick Corbin, who has been objectively bad now for several seasons in a row, and Austin Gomber, who pitches his home games in Coors Field and doesn't strike many guys out.

Then, there are three guys with really bad ERAs (5+) and SIERAs in the low fours (Kikuchi, Rogers, Berrios), meaning even if things had broken better for them, they still would have been largely average at best. All three guys have flashed some solid upside so far in their careers and have the kind of stuff that keeps us coming back.

I'll toss Giolito and Greene into the "potential ace" category as both are guys with dynamic swing-and-miss stuff who got hit too hard too often. Manaea probably belongs to that first group based on his profile, though early returns this Spring are good with some reports of increased velocity.

Let's skip an in-depth analysis of Alex Wood for now. We know what he is at this point in his career - an average strikeout pitcher who can give us above-average results when he's getting ground balls, and last year, he got BABIP'ed to death with a .315 mark. He should be fine as an innings eater, but I have no expectations for him to be anything more than serviceable.

Let's look at the other six pitchers and go right down the list (in no particular order other than the one they appear in on my chart).

 

Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins

ADP: 337

Baller Move: 262

Rogers is definitely a guy who I think qualifies as a bounce-back candidate. He's just a year removed from a 2021 campaign where he finished with a 2.64 ERA across 25 starts for Miami. Was that season just a complete mirage? I don't think so, though his ERA was probably close to a run too low for his underlying numbers.

And last year pretty much nothing went right for him, especially in the first half of the season when he had only a 20% K rate, but a 10% walk rate. His WHIP was massive in the first half at 1.55, too, and with all those baserunners and only a 66% strand rate, his ERA had nowhere to go but up.

The thing is Rogers seemed to show some signs of reverting to his 2021 form late in the year. His ERA didn't reflect that, but in his final 23 innings pitched in 2022, he raised the K% to 28% while cutting the walk rate down to 6%. He still got BABIP'ed pretty badly at a .356 clip but his xFIP for those last several starts was just 2.75.

For Rogers, it really comes down to control and being able to locate his pitches. His fastball is his worst pitch, but it was much worse last year than before because he got behind in counts and had to throw it in hitters' counts or keep throwing his offspeed stuff and risk giving up more walks.

Both his changeup (13%) and slider (16%) had good swinging strike rates. If he did, in fact, fix his release point as is being suggested in the tweet, it could go a long way towards helping him trend back towards a 50% GB rate. He induced only 42% of ground balls last season.

The early returns this Spring have been good, and last year may prove to be more of a fluke (in a bad way) than 2021 was (in a good way). Rogers is likely going to be better than he was last season, even if he isn't able to replicate the numbers from his breakout year in 2021.

He has the stuff to be an effective starter, but he just doesn't have the same margin for error that a hard thrower has in terms of needing to locate his fastball to set up his offspeed stuff. I like his chances of having a solid 2023 campaign with an ERA somewhere in the mid-to-high threes with a strikeout-per-inning upside. I agree with our RotoBaller ranking that his ADP is far too low.

The Verdict: Buy Rogers to bounce back

 

Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 326

Baller Move: 511

Kikuchi has been a polarizing player in fantasy baseball now for several seasons. We love chasing his strikeout potential, but last year he made managers feel foolish for buying in when he finished with a 5.19 ERA. He's the only pitcher on our list in this article who also finished with a negative WAR (-0.7) and he was a massive disappointment in his first season in Toronto (another one of those guys coming here in a minute when we get to Berrios).

Kikuchi was coming off his best season in Seattle in 2021, but the park downgrade for him in Toronto certainly was not ideal for a pitcher who already had a major home run problem. He saw his ground ball rate dip to a career-low 44% last year and it resulted in a career-worst 23.7% HR/FB ratio.

Now, normally I would be looking at that number and saying that it has nowhere to go but down (the league average is usually around 10%). But Kikuchi's career HR/FB rate now through his first four seasons sits at 19.8%, which is quite troubling and suggests that perhaps there isn't all that much room for improvement unless he changes how he pitches entirely.

The best strikeout numbers of his career came last year, but he also posted his worst walk rates (over five batters per nine innings), too. Perhaps he will be slightly better this year, but I don't see the reward being worth the risk. When you boil it down, he's still a fly ball, HR-prone pitcher who is pitching in an incredibly tough division full of good offenses at a bad ballpark for pitchers. I'm out on Kikuchi, and once again, I'm in agreement with our rankings, which have him well below his ADP.

The Verdict: FADE Kikuchi and expect another inconsistent year

 

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 125

Baller Move: 104

There is certainly a lot of hype surrounding Greene coming into this season. The Reds just announced he will be their Opening Day starter. Greene, along with lefty Nick Lodolo, is expected to anchor the Cincinnati rotation this season. Both guys had a quick rise to the majors and flashed some major strikeout stuff last season, but Greene had everyone's attention with his ability to hit triple digits with his fastball regularly.

Even after gearing down a bit on his fastball after his first month or two in the majors, Greene still averaged 98.9 mph on his four-seamer. The problem with Major League hitters is they are eventually going to time you up, no matter how hard you throw, and his fastball had a 48% hard-hit rate and a .477 xSLG allowed. He was an extreme fly ball pitcher with only a 29% ground ball rate and allowed 24 HR and a 16% HR/FB rate.

The home runs were definitely one of his biggest issues and pitching his home games at Great American Ball Park is going to continue to be a concern going forward if he keeps giving up that many fly balls. His GB% rate in the minors was around 40-42% and he'd be wise to make the adjustments needed to keep the ball on the ground more often (just ask Luis Castillo).

We saw some reasons to think that Greene started to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower at the end of last season. His second half was simply incredible as he finished his final 35 innings with a 1.02 ERA. Greene saw his K% jump to 36% while dropping his BB% to only 5% and allowing only a .175 AVG to opposing hitters. He started throwing his fastball less often and his slider more, which was a really good thing considering his slider was an elite pitch with an 18% SwStr%.

Can you be an elite pitcher with a high-90s fastball, dominant slider, and lack of a third pitch in this league? I think Spencer Strider proved last season that you can and Greene could be this year's Strider if everything comes together just right.

The Verdict: I am buying Greene to perform up to expectations and he's worthy of taking in the early rounds of your drafts.

 

Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 130

Baller Move: 151

Unlike some of these other guys, there's pretty much one stat that is likely responsible for Giolito's underperforming ERA - a career-high BABIP of .340. His career average BABIP is .279 and the average for all pitchers tends to fall right around .300. Sometimes a high BABIP can be deceiving and bad pitchers who get hit harder than good pitchers SHOULD have a BABIP higher than normal. But it's also a stat we associate a lot with luck as we see balls hit incredibly hard right at fielders end up as outs while dribblers and seeing-eye-singles that are weakly hit end up as hits.

The thing is Giolito's numbers across the board are pretty much the same as they have been for several years in terms of walks, ground balls, and strand rates. His strikeouts dipped and he lost over one full mph on his four-seamer. His slider was less effective, too, and lost one mph in velocity. The 28-year-old's changeup was still his best pitch.

His velocity on the fastball this Spring has hovered between 92-94, so it remains to be seen if he can return to his 2020 average of 94 mph. But the new arm slot could go a long way toward getting his slider back on track by helping to tunnel his pitches better and create more deception.

Here's the biggest thing for me. We have seen pitchers bounce back in their late 20s before and become aces again (Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray) but they are usually the exception and not the norm. The ADP here isn't cheap and likely buoyed by his name and reputation. While he's pitching for a good team in a division where he could pile up wins, I'm a little hesitant to embrace a full buy here.

The Verdict: Giolito is better this year, but don't reach for him at his current ADP.

 

Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 184

Baller Move: 216

My good friend Eric Samulski stole my thunder here a bit already when he already profiled Berrios here in his "Pitchers with bad fastballs" piece earlier this week. So perhaps I don't need to go into as much detail with Jose as some of these other guys.

We have to ask ourselves, what is buoying his current ADP? He was pretty mediocre in 2020 and the first half of 2021 in Minnesota before coming over to Toronto and fooling a lot of folks into thinking they had fixed him. Sure, his HR/FB rate was the highest it's been in his career. As with Kikuchi, it's not like this guy hasn't had his struggles with the long ball before (though not to the extreme amount as Kikuchi by any means).

His ground ball rate is trending down while his CSW% and SwStr% are both trending down, too. As Eric mentioned in his piece, he once boasted one of the better curveballs in the game. Last year, though, his curveball was the least effective it has been in his career and his changeup was also a pitch with a negative value rating.

I'm just not sure where we expect him to improve, these metrics have all been trending in the wrong direction for a few years and Toronto is a tough place to pitch. Our ranking for Berrios isn't all that much lower than his ADP, but I'm out on Berrios as there are simply too many other pitchers who I think are trending up around that same ADP that are much more worthy of an investment.

The Verdict: FADE Berrios, even with some positive regression, he's a mediocre pitcher at best.

 

Sean Manaea, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 264

Baller Move: 266

Manaea is perhaps one of the most interesting guys to make our list here. All of his ERA indicators suggest that his 4.96 ERA was not entirely his fault. His xERA of 4.05 and xFIP of 3.96 are both in line with his 3.9 SIERA.

Home runs were a big problem as he allowed 29 long balls last season- 15 of which came in his final 57 innings where his ERA ballooned to 6.44 compared to a 4.11 mark through his first 100 innings. That late-season swoon was largely attributed to a major decrease in velocity as he was topping out around 88-89 mph on his sinker by August.

His three offspeed pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) all sport solid swinging strike rates. Manaea's overall SwStr% of 13.1% and CSW% of 28.5% are not out of line with where he has been in prior seasons.

If this increase in velocity that is being reported is sustainable, it's going to help him immensely as his sinker is by far his worst pitch in terms of batted ball data. He wasn't throwing it hard and was leaving it up in the zone last year, resulting in a career-low 39% GB rate and a career-high HR/FB of 1.65. We have seen other guys come out of the Driveline program with velocity bumps to mixed results. Manaea will need to sustain that velocity over the course of the whole season, too.

A ballpark upgrade in San Francisco certainly won't hurt either and the Giants have been known to help guys in the middle of their careers rediscover their best stuff (Gausman, Cobb, etc...)

The Verdict: I am buying in on a Manaea resurgence, at this ADP he's worth a gamble.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Marcus Smart10 mins ago

Has Solid Showing In Game 6
Jaylen Brown16 mins ago

Has 26 Points In Win Over Miami
Robert Williams22 mins ago

III Finishes With 10 Points Saturday
Derrick White30 mins ago

Forces A Game 7
Jayson Tatum41 mins ago

Scores 31 Points In Game 6
Julio Urías57 mins ago

Julio Urias To Throw Bullpen Session Monday
Xander Bogaerts1 hour ago

Expected Back In The Lineup Sunday
Max Kepler2 hours ago

Almost "Fully Recovered"
Jesús Sánchez2 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez Will Return On Tuesday
Yu Chang2 hours ago

Pauses Rehab Assignment
Anthony Rizzo3 hours ago

Logs Base Hit As Yankees End Losing Streak
Jose Trevino4 hours ago

Could Return Sunday
Drey Jameson4 hours ago

Recalled From Triple-A Reno
Rafael Devers4 hours ago

Dealing With Minor Calf Injury
DeAndre Hopkins4 hours ago

Bills, Chiefs Had "Substantive" Talks About Trading For DeAndre Hopkins
Roansy Contreras4 hours ago

Will Shift To The Bullpen In The Near Future
Travis Etienne Jr.5 hours ago

Working On "Fine-Tuning" Skills
Kevin Kiermaier5 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Back Discomfort
Arizona Cardinals5 hours ago

Budda Baker Will Be At Training Camp
Vince Velasquez5 hours ago

Removed With Elbow Discomfort
Austin Dillon5 hours ago

Could Be Place Differential King At Charlotte
Erik Jones5 hours ago

Could Be Good Early At Charlotte
Daniel Suarez6 hours ago

Has Upside At Coca-Cola 600
Aric Almirola6 hours ago

Stuck In Middle Of The Pack For Charlotte
Chase Briscoe6 hours ago

Tries To Turn Back Clock At Charlotte
Ty Gibbs6 hours ago

Could Provide DFS Value At Charlotte
Joey Logano6 hours ago

Tries To Bounce Back From Charlotte Mishap
Martin Truex Jr6 hours ago

. Wants To Turn Back Clock At Charlotte
Justin Haley6 hours ago

Might Have Challenge At Charlotte
Tyler Reddick6 hours ago

Aims To Move Up At Charlotte
Zack Wheeler7 hours ago

Fans Season-High 12 Batters In Fourth Win
Michael Lorenzen7 hours ago

Can’t Log Win Despite Strong Display
DJ LeMahieu7 hours ago

Emerges From Cold Spell With Homer
Justin Verlander8 hours ago

Aims To Build On Longest Start
Daniel Vogelbach8 hours ago

Sitting On Saturday Amidst Tough Year
Kris Bryant8 hours ago

Scuffling, Gets Night Off On Saturday
Ezequiel Duran8 hours ago

Officially Placed On Injured List On Saturday
Ross Chastain8 hours ago

Looking For A Win At Charlotte
Harrison Burton9 hours ago

On The Hot Seat For Results
Kyle Larson9 hours ago

Fast And Furious At Charlotte
Chris Buescher9 hours ago

Risky But Could Provide Reward
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9 hours ago

. May Be On Borrowed Time At Charlotte
Christopher Bell9 hours ago

Trying To Improve On 2022 Charlotte Result
Ryan Blaney9 hours ago

Still Trying To Find The Checkered Flag
Kyle Busch9 hours ago

In Interesting Position For Charlotte
Denny Hamlin9 hours ago

Starts Fourth For Coca-Cola 600
Thairo Estrada9 hours ago

Placed On Injured List
Brad Keselowski9 hours ago

Rides Metric Wave At Charlotte
Kevin Harvick9 hours ago

Starts Second At Charlotte
Kevin Kiermaier9 hours ago

Removed From Saturday's Game
Jerome Kapp14 hours ago

Jets Sign Jerome Kapp
San Francisco 49ers14 hours ago

Dre Greenlaw Recovering From Finger Surgery
Chris Moore15 hours ago

Willing To Play Any Role
Gary Brightwell15 hours ago

Could Be Buried On Depth Chart
Dallas Cowboys15 hours ago

Terence Steele Limited At OTAs
Marquise Brown15 hours ago

Becomes Cardinals' No. 1 Receiver
Deshaun Watson15 hours ago

Jordan Akins Eager To Work With Deshaun Watson Again
Deshaun Watson15 hours ago

Elijah Moore Building Chemistry With Deshaun Watson
Gabe Vincent1 day ago

Questionable On Saturday
Tyler Herro1 day ago

Remains Out For Game 6
Bam Adebayo1 day ago

Good To Go For Game 6
Malcolm Brogdon1 day ago

Questionable For Game 6
DeAndre Hopkins1 day ago

Bills "Lurking" As A Favorite To Land DeAndre Hopkins
Davante Adams1 day ago

Josh McDaniels Has No Issues With Davante Adams Venting
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 day ago

Bucs Expect Devin White At Minicamp
Darren Waller1 day ago

Enjoying Time In New York
Dalvin Cook1 day ago

Now Considering A Pay Cut?
DeAndre Hopkins1 day ago

Chiefs A Potential Landing Spot For DeAndre Hopkins?
Detroit Pistons1 day ago

Detroit Brings Kevin Ollie And Charles Lee In For Second Interviews
Atlanta Hawks1 day ago

Hawks Hire Igor Kokoskov As Lead Assistant Coach
Joel Embiid1 day ago

Still Considered Untouchable
D'Angelo Russell1 day ago

Lakers Won't Pursue The Max For D'Angelo Russell
Fred VanVleet1 day ago

Raptors Unsure If They Want To Re-Sign Fred VanVleet
Tyler Allgeier1 day ago

Not Concerned About Usage
Hendon Hooker1 day ago

Preparing Himself Mentally
Michael Gallup1 day ago

To Have Expanded Role
Indianapolis Colts1 day ago

Shaquille Leonard Remains Without A Timetable
Haywood Highsmith2 days ago

Fills In Well From The Bench
Jimmy Butler2 days ago

Held In Check For Just 14 Points
Duncan Robinson2 days ago

Leads The Heat In Scoring
Marcus Smart2 days ago

Swipes Five Steals In Big Game 5 Win
Jayson Tatum2 days ago

Secures Double-Double In Game 5
Derrick White2 days ago

Leads All Scorers In Game 5 Victory
Jack Eichel2 days ago

Keeps The Assists Coming
William Karlsson2 days ago

Matches Vegas Record With Eighth Postseason Goal
Miro Heiskanen2 days ago

Delivers Two Power-Play Assists
Jason Robertson2 days ago

Scores Two Goals In Game 4 Victory
Joe Pavelski2 days ago

Scores Overtime Winner In Game 4
Kyle Lowry2 days ago

Starting In Game 5
Jake Oettinger2 days ago

The Confirmed Starter For Game 4
Evgenii Dadonov2 days ago

Will Be Out Of The Lineup For Dallas
Adin Hill2 days ago

Will Mind The Vegas Crease In Game 4
Jamie Benn3 days ago

Suspended For Two Games
Sergei Bobrovsky3 days ago

Remains Sharp In Series-Clincher
Aleksander Barkov3 days ago

Hands Out Two Assists In Game 4 Victory
Matthew Tkachuk3 days ago

Late Goal Sends Panthers To Stanley Cup Final
Michael Block3 days ago

A Fade At Charles Schwab
Emiliano Grillo3 days ago

Looks To Regain Form
Viktor Hovland3 days ago

Teeing It Up After Close Call At PGA Championship
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Tough To Include In Fantasy Lineups
Beau Hossler3 days ago

Worth Fantasy Consideration Heading To Colonial
Billy Horschel3 days ago

Inconsistency Makes Him A Tough Choice
Ryan Fox3 days ago

An Intriguing Pick For Fantasy Lineups
Alex Smalley3 days ago

A Risky Option For Fantasy Lineups
Christiaan Bezuidenhout3 days ago

To Bounce Back After Missed Cut
Brendon Todd3 days ago

A Risky Fantasy Play At Colonial
PGA3 days ago

Byeong Hun An's Impressive Play Makes Him Strong Fantasy Option
PGA3 days ago

K.H. Lee Looks To Continue Playing Well
Tom Hoge3 days ago

A Viable Fantasy Option At Colonial
PGA3 days ago

Cameron Davis Playing Well Heading To Colonial
Max Homa3 days ago

A Reliable Fantasy Option At Colonial
Will Gordon3 days ago

A Solid Option In Texas
Cameron Champ4 days ago

Worth A Look At Colonial
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

A Solid Sleeper At Colonial
Sam Stevens4 days ago

Worth A Shot At Charles Schwab
Ryan Palmer4 days ago

Is It Safe To Start Ryan Palmer In Texas?
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

In A Major Slump
Aleksander Barkov4 days ago

Expected To Play In Game 4
Mark Stone4 days ago

Jamie Benn Ejected For Cross-Checking Mark Stone In Game 3
Ivan Barbashev4 days ago

Collects Three Points In Game 3 Victory
Adin Hill4 days ago

Posts First Career Playoff Shutout In Game 3
Sergei Bobrovsky5 days ago

Posts First Career Playoff Shutout In Game 3
Aleksander Barkov5 days ago

Suffers Lower-Body Injury In Game 3
Angela Hill6 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Anthony Hernandez6 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
MMA6 days ago

Lupita Godinez Picks Up Decision Win
Joaquin Buckley6 days ago

Gets Back In Win Column
Diego Ferreira6 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Adin Hill6 days ago

Keeps Rolling With Victory In Game 2
Ryan Suter6 days ago

Collects Two Assists In Sunday's Loss
Mark Stone6 days ago

Scores A Power-Play Goal In Game 2
Mackenzie Dern6 days ago

Puts On Impressive Showing In Main Event
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

Knocked Out Saturday
Emily Ducote6 days ago

Shows Out Well But Takes Decision Loss
Andre Fialho6 days ago

Takes Third Straight Defeat Saturday
Michael Johnson6 days ago

On Wrong Side Highlight Knockout
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF